Very earnest matters to be considered for sure!!
Tim: the thrust of your thread is very clear and I am sure it is not lost on Jeff. Like any thread, there will naturally be diversions to consider wider points.
Frankly, I think you are over complicating things. If said notional golfer hits a good one but not in range (or a stray one), they lay up to the flattest part of the fairway they can find - and react accordingly. Be that shoot at the pin or aim at the bunker as they are nervous about a shot from a downhill lie holding the green and not running off into the water beyond. Have I missed anything?
Brian,
Actually, after reading your post I am wondering if I still wasn't clear. Where, exactly, does the 15 hit his second shot? Where is that spot? How big is that area? Does the 15 have a real chance to hit it?
Tim,
The proverbial "15" after driving say 180-240, can then hit anywhere from a 5 wood to wedge, leaving him anywhere from 150-70 yards, a very wide landing area, Ideally he would hit it left with a right pin, and right with a left pin, but frankly that may be asking too much.
As long as the player doesn't aim right at a left pin, and/or lays up left, he's very unlikly to hit it in the water over the green, as it's mainly in play from the center long to left long.Lots of rooom right and long right.
that said if he hits it over, he will have a dicey pitch/chip, but isn't that what the handicap shot is for?
It's not like the lower handicapper giving the shot has an easy pitch either.