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Randy Thompson

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If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« on: March 09, 2014, 10:53:18 PM »
What is the most likely segment that will become active:  
 High end Country Clubs or high end public?  
Blue collar affordable country clubs?
 Affordable public?      
 Upper class-big tour name-real estate developments?
Upper middle class, vanilla golf courses done in the most economical fashion possible and with some limited real estate?
 Middle class golf courses laid out with real estate lining the holes, producing a bowling alley effect?  

                                                                            

« Last Edit: March 10, 2014, 01:08:18 AM by Randy Thompson »

BCowan

Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2014, 10:58:10 PM »
semi private

David_Tepper

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2014, 11:09:45 PM »
Given how the rich have never been richer (and are getting ever more so ;)), I suspect the very private, very high-end luxury golf course projects (like Nanea, Alotian, etc.) will continue to get built. The private equity and hedge fund guys need something to spend their money on!

According to an article in the March 7 Financial Times, "Nine private equity chiefs share $2.5 billlion."

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/27d568aa-a326-11e3-ba21-00144feab7de.html
« Last Edit: March 09, 2014, 11:19:22 PM by David_Tepper »

BHoover

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2014, 11:32:48 PM »
Seems to me that the activity will be restorations of high-end privates (that have the money and members to pay for it) and destination resorts like Bandon, Cabot, Streamsong, etc. I don't see any reason why that trend will change.

Patrick_Mucci

Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2014, 11:47:18 PM »
David,

From the time the first scheckle/shekel was traded, the rich always became richer.
This is nothing new.
But, it's become a popluar phrase in order to demean hard work, risk and success.

Randy,

That's a big "IF" and "WHEN".

Clubs, except the iconic clubs are experiencing difficulty attracting and retaining members.

But, it's not just because of financial issues.

Culturally, with dual income earners, the days where the breadwinner went to the club for the day on a weekend, are over.

Young parents with young children are far more involved in their kids activities.

Just recently, a fellow I know, had to coach his son's little league game on a Saturday morning and as a result, left his partner to fend for himself in the morning match in his two day member-guest.  This was unheard of in my father's or my generation's day.  But, that's the reality.

If rounds could be completed in 3 hours, younger people would find it more attractive to belong to a club.
Tee off at 7:00 am, be home by 11:00, or tee off at 2:00 and be home by 6:00 works for most young families.

Then, there's the cost to maintain the course/club, and those costs are going up, ergo dues are going up.
So, it's gotten more expensive and it takes longer to play.  That's not an attractive combination.

The iconic clubs will probably fare the best as they seem the most attractive to prospective members.

I know of clubs that used to charge an initiation, no bond, of $ 200,000, that now waive the initiation and just charge dues.
When you do that, it's awfully hard to make capital improvements unless you assess, and when you assess, members leave.
So, the financial pressures are real and onerous.

So many things have to change in order for golf to go back to the "way it was", and I don't see those things changing.

I played a course recently with the club President and Green Chairman and asked them the following question when they asked me a question.

If put to a vote, would your members rather have a course that looks great or one that plays great.

They looked at each other and agreed that their members would probably prefer the course that "looks great.

And therein lies part of the problem.

I've said, for decades, that the weekly PGA Tour telecast present unrealistic conditions because those courses generally benefit from an inflated budget/revenues related to the PGA Tour/TV

When golfers see those conditions on TV, they want those same conditions for their course, and that costs MONEY.

The discussion came up because I made the comment that their fairways should look like their greens.
Their greens were firm and fast and yellowish/brownish/greenish in color.

I had previously commented that the course played much longer than the yardage because there was no roll, because the course was too lush, partially due to overseeding and partly due to the "desire" of the membership to present the same conditions seen on TV.

Hence, your "IF" and "WHEN" contingency is a huge one, and I don't see a return to Nirvana any time soon, hence, I think clubs/courses will continue to struggle.





Jaeger Kovich

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2014, 12:22:03 AM »
Randy - I think the market will be complete re-do's of existing and failing golf courses. It will mostly be in urban areas that will be able to support a golf course/club for a profit, even if its a relatively small one... I wont give my entire sales pitch here, but there is no reason to be starting from absolute zero in many cases, when some of the epic fails of the past offer some very helpful starting pieces.

Randy Thompson

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #6 on: March 10, 2014, 12:37:39 AM »
Randy - I think the market will be complete re-do's of existing and failing golf courses. It will mostly be in urban areas that will be able to support a golf course/club for a profit, even if its a relatively small one... I wont give my entire sales pitch here, but there is no reason to be starting from absolute zero in many cases, when some of the epic fails of the past offer some very helpful starting pieces.
Jasper,
That is the market now and near future granted and maybe throw in a few new courses like, remote locations high end pure golf and a few hotel rooms. But what goes down eventually goes back up and eventually this market will come back. I am not saying 350 courses a year but lets say, 150 or 175, what will be the driving concept or structure of the majority of these courses. It doesnīt matter if were talking five, ten or even fifteen years, that another discussion. When it comes around it will be slowly and because there has become a demand in a certain market and there is promise of PROFIT.

Randy Thompson

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2014, 01:02:33 AM »
David,

From the time the first scheckle/shekel was traded, the rich always became richer.
This is nothing new.
But, it's become a popluar phrase in order to demean hard work, risk and success.

Randy,

That's a big "IF" and "WHEN".

Clubs, except the iconic clubs are experiencing difficulty attracting and retaining members.

But, it's not just because of financial issues.

Culturally, with dual income earners, the days where the breadwinner went to the club for the day on a weekend, are over.

Young parents with young children are far more involved in their kids activities.

Just recently, a fellow I know, had to coach his son's little league game on a Saturday morning and as a result, left his partner to fend for himself in the morning match in his two day member-guest.  This was unheard of in my father's or my generation's day.  But, that's the reality.

If rounds could be completed in 3 hours, younger people would find it more attractive to belong to a club.
Tee off at 7:00 am, be home by 11:00, or tee off at 2:00 and be home by 6:00 works for most young families.

Then, there's the cost to maintain the course/club, and those costs are going up, ergo dues are going up.
So, it's gotten more expensive and it takes longer to play.  That's not an attractive combination.

The iconic clubs will probably fare the best as they seem the most attractive to prospective members.

I know of clubs that used to charge an initiation, no bond, of $ 200,000, that now waive the initiation and just charge dues.
When you do that, it's awfully hard to make capital improvements unless you assess, and when you assess, members leave.
So, the financial pressures are real and onerous.

So many things have to change in order for golf to go back to the "way it was", and I don't see those things changing.

I played a course recently with the club President and Green Chairman and asked them the following question when they asked me a question.

If put to a vote, would your members rather have a course that looks great or one that plays great.

They looked at each other and agreed that their members would probably prefer the course that "looks great.

And therein lies part of the problem.

I've said, for decades, that the weekly PGA Tour telecast present unrealistic conditions because those courses generally benefit from an inflated budget/revenues related to the PGA Tour/TV

When golfers see those conditions on TV, they want those same conditions for their course, and that costs MONEY.

The discussion came up because I made the comment that their fairways should look like their greens.
Their greens were firm and fast and yellowish/brownish/greenish in color.

I had previously commented that the course played much longer than the yardage because there was no roll, because the course was too lush, partially due to overseeding and partly due to the "desire" of the membership to present the same conditions seen on TV.

Hence, your "IF" and "WHEN" contingency is a huge one, and I don't see a return to Nirvana any time soon, hence, I think clubs/courses will continue to struggle.


Pat,
I agree totally but I was asking more in relation to new courses or new developments.
But along the lines you were stating, I find the same thing. Today I took a superentendent that I am training to the Chile Classic, a web.com event or whatever there called. I am consulting at her course and I find it overwatered and over green. The pga tour had the course fast and firm. The greens were..alive is the best way to desciribe them and putting great. Fairways were dry and 25 to 30% brown. Bent greens and common bermuda fairways. PGA junior tour event but without television. They can do it when they donīt have TV pressure. I wanted her to see the differce between a course that plays good and one that looks good. However, my real work is convincing the membership because they all want green and that is how they judge whether the course is good or not. If not, then she will never have the security to water properly.
This same club has something like 300 members and needs another hundred to have the funds to maintain it properly. They are currently cutting their fairways, bermuda and fescue mix, at about a 20 yard width and no exaggeration here. Outside the fairways is a very thick, four inch fescue dominated rough. Trees line almost all areas both sides of the hole but there is eighty yards width framing the hole and they have these little skinny fairways. The board is all in agreement that the best courses are the most difficult. I am trying to talk them into doubling or trippling the width and let it be more user friendly. Seems logical if your looking for new memebers but have to see what happens, next week is there pro tournament and lets see how much they let me widen, if any!
« Last Edit: March 10, 2014, 01:06:21 AM by Randy Thompson »

BCowan

Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2014, 01:29:10 AM »
Randy

   Is there a way to leave the fairways firm and use the money saved from not watering to paint the fairways green, win win?

Randy Thompson

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2014, 01:51:25 AM »
Randy

   Is there a way to leave the fairways firm and use the money saved from not watering to paint the fairways green, win win?
I donīt have enough experience with greens dye to know how much they cost and how long they last, but it seems to me you take the fescue to point of no return and then water it deep, the soil has good infiltration.

Mike_Trenham

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2014, 07:09:00 AM »
Population growth/shifts will result in future course new builds and they will be housing development oriented to get zoning relief.
Proud member of a Doak 3.

jeffwarne

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #11 on: March 10, 2014, 07:35:16 AM »
Future golf courses will do better without the word development attached
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

Dave Doxey

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #12 on: March 10, 2014, 06:45:50 PM »
I think that there is an opportunity in the “grey zone” - courses that are borderline out of business/existence.

Providing consulting services to these troubled courses and clubs could be a lucrative opportunity.  Move them to sustainability by implementation of solid business planning and practices,  lower-cost and more efficient maintenance (perhaps with low cost design changes), and marketing practices to attract players or members.

The key is to be able to identify the band of courses that are troubled enough to benefit from these changes, yet are not yet too far gone to save.

A more capital intensive approach would be to buy such courses, fix them, and then operate or sell them.  “Golf course flipping” anyone?  I can see the cable TV show now!

Randy Thompson

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #13 on: March 10, 2014, 07:23:40 PM »
I feel that new course developement will come around with time and it is true the rich are becoming richer but the big fish market at the surface has been fished hard. All type of courses are currently saturated but the demand should come back in the middle market probably in Joe Lee type golf courses. I think there are still more fish in the middle. Going after the big fish is more risky requiring more investment and I suspect these projects will contract the service of a few of the rising stars and the signature tour players will continue to have a difficult time. There is inconfidents in the market. To change that slowly look, for more economical sustenability and quality fun courses without all the bells and whistles and mix in some housing, more so condoīs in the second home market.

Mike_Young

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #14 on: March 10, 2014, 09:28:07 PM »
When it rebounds the myth of the golf architect as we know it today will be gone.  The occupation will have been transformed into a design /build profession and the glamor so many associate with it today will be out of it.  I know that's not a popular opinion here but think about it. So many profess to be a golf architect just like people profess to be actors.  Without working spouses the profession would be cut in more than half tomorrow. 
The next wave will require investment in actual being able to put it on the ground.  And why will this work?  It will work because the developers will understand that Signature Designs will not give them what the buyer is looking to find.  They will be trying to create a product that can actually make a profit on it's own without being subsidized. 
And it's already starting to happen.  It's coming back.
"just standing on a corner in Winslow Arizona"

paul cowley

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Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds: New
« Reply #15 on: March 10, 2014, 10:04:21 PM »
I agree with Mike  :)
« Last Edit: March 11, 2014, 01:21:10 PM by paul cowley »
paul cowley...golf course architect/asgca

Patrick_Mucci

Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #16 on: March 10, 2014, 10:43:23 PM »
Randy,

That's the problem.

We're outnumbered and outvoted when it comes to preparing a course for daily playing conditions.

One only has to look at South Florida, where the dormant Bermuda used to go purple in the winter.

As more and more northerners vacationed and spent the winters in Florida, the cry for the green, green grass of home became the overriding theme at every course.

It's a matter of form being victorious over substance.

Most on here prefer superior playing conditions over looks.
But, we're in the minority.

I fear that only water shortages will change that thinking, although, courses like Seminole "get it" and present ideal playing surfaces rather than window dressing.

I don't think that you, me and others on this site can convince those golfers who watch golf on TV, that brownish/yellowish/greenish fairways are preferable to lush green fairways where you don't get an inch of roll.


BCowan

Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #17 on: March 10, 2014, 11:02:23 PM »
PM

   Pinehurst keeps getting overlooked.  They do not over seed.  I have been told they put an application/paint on their fairways in the dormant season to insulate the Bermuda.  So there is a way to compromise and have F&F with the color green for the people that haven't considered the benefits of F&F.  If someone could tell me the Pinehurst application that would be great.  I think Pinehurst (semi private) is more of a mainstream revolution than Seminole. 

Patrick_Mucci

Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #18 on: March 10, 2014, 11:08:52 PM »
PM

Pinehurst keeps getting overlooked. 

They do not over seed. 

How do you know what they do on ALL of their courses ?


I have been told they put an application/paint on their fairways in the dormant season to insulate the Bermuda. 

Why would they need to "insulate" the Bermuda ?

How many times a week/month/season does the application get done ?

Wouldn't paint KILL the grass ?

Who told you this ?


So there is a way to compromise and have F&F with the color green for the people that haven't considered the benefits of F&F. 

How do you draw that conclusion from undocumented hearsay ?

I've played Pinehurst # 2 and never noticed any application/dye/paint on the fairways.


If someone could tell me the Pinehurst application that would be great. 

I think Pinehurst (semi private) is more of a mainstream revolution than Seminole. 

How so ?

Which course is a greater influence on golf ?

Did Seminole find the need to bring in C&C to completely alter the flavor of the course ?


Mike_Young

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #19 on: March 10, 2014, 11:17:24 PM »
A lot of courses down here painted or pigmented their fairways and greens this season instead of overseeding.  Here is a link for more info:
http://www.beckerunderwood.com/productsservices/turfhorticulture/turf-colorants/

It's no different than football fields etc...Pigment is used while the plant is growing and paint can be used when it stops.  All kinds of methiods of application and rates...most all ultradwarf greens are done this way...
"just standing on a corner in Winslow Arizona"

Randy Thompson

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #20 on: March 10, 2014, 11:21:57 PM »
Patrick,
My mom lives in Florida and lives in a 36 hole devlopement. Hertiage Spring, 18 holes high end RTJ Junior and 18 holes retirement community designed by Ron Garl. she lives on the Garl design. I spoke with the Superintendent, six employees for eighteen holes but they overseed the course Wall to Wall to keep up with the Jones, no cheap under taking. I think one of the best hitting surfaces is a dormant hybrid bermuda surface cut low but like you say, its going to be a long haul to change the publicīs perception.

Ben,
Paint or dye has no insulating tendencies for the protection of the Bermuda, its strictly for show. I like you, would be interested to hear how long one application last under normal circumstances.

BCowan

Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #21 on: March 10, 2014, 11:22:14 PM »
PM

Pinehurst keeps getting overlooked. 

They do not over seed. 

How do you know what they do on ALL of their courses ?


I have been told they put an application/paint on their fairways in the dormant season to insulate the Bermuda. 

Why would they need to "insulate" the Bermuda ?

How many times a week/month/season does the application get done ?
I am trying to find this info out
Wouldn't paint KILL the grass ?
It is more of an application i believe then actual paint
Who told you this ?

A friend who lives in Pinehurst and plays at Mid Pines/Pine Needles
So there is a way to compromise and have F&F with the color green for the people that haven't considered the benefits of F&F. 

How do you draw that conclusion from undocumented hearsay ?
I am not positive, the person isn't a grass nerd
I've played Pinehurst # 2 and never noticed any application/dye/paint on the fairways.
What year did you play it?

If someone could tell me the Pinehurst application that would be great. 

I think Pinehurst (semi private) is more of a mainstream revolution than Seminole. 

How so ?
Pinehurst is accessible to the public, it is seen on TV
Which course is a greater influence on golf ?
Are you serious?
Did Seminole find the need to bring in C&C to completely alter the flavor of the course ?

I believe they restored it, I haven't looked at the original photos, have you?  Was some altering made to accommodate the modern player in a US Open?

BCowan

Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #22 on: March 10, 2014, 11:26:13 PM »
A lot of courses down here painted or pigmented their fairways and greens this season instead of overseeding.  Here is a link for more info:
http://www.beckerunderwood.com/productsservices/turfhorticulture/turf-colorants/

It's no different than football fields etc...Pigment is used while the plant is growing and paint can be used when it stops.  All kinds of methiods of application and rates...most all ultradwarf greens are done this way...

Thanks Mike.  It says 120 days it lasts.  Is it extremely expensive?  More cost effective than over seeding I am guessing?  Does it insulate the Bermuda in the dormant months?

Don_Mahaffey

Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #23 on: March 11, 2014, 12:51:19 AM »
PM

   Pinehurst keeps getting overlooked.  They do not over seed.  I have been told they put an application/paint on their fairways in the dormant season to insulate the Bermuda.  So there is a way to compromise and have F&F with the color green for the people that haven't considered the benefits of F&F.  If someone could tell me the Pinehurst application that would be great.  I think Pinehurst (semi private) is more of a mainstream revolution than Seminole. 
Pinehurst doesn't overseed? You mean #2 doesn't overseed. I was there late last fall and I saw a lot of rye grass.

Bradley Anderson

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If and when the US golf development market rebounds:
« Reply #24 on: March 11, 2014, 07:16:06 AM »
When it rebounds the myth of the golf architect as we know it today will be gone.  The occupation will have been transformed into a design /build profession and the glamor so many associate with it today will be out of it.  I know that's not a popular opinion here but think about it. So many profess to be a golf architect just like people profess to be actors.  Without working spouses the profession would be cut in more than half tomorrow. 
The next wave will require investment in actual being able to put it on the ground.  And why will this work?  It will work because the developers will understand that Signature Designs will not give them what the buyer is looking to find.  They will be trying to create a product that can actually make a profit on it's own without being subsidized. 
And it's already starting to happen.  It's coming back.

This makes a lot of sense Mike. New golf courses are going to have to be profitable or they won't be funding. You are going to have to demonstrate that there is a demand for additional golf holes in your market and that the design is not too costly to maintain.