Trump buys Doonbeg

[Rich Goodale]

It would seem only Salmond ever really believed Trump was going to deliver on his incredibly OTT promises.  What a shame Scotland let a guy like Trump take them to the cleaners.  This guy, whats his name?  The one most villified for sticking to his guns - you know, remember, the guy who used his casting vote against Trump's plan?  Don't you remember, then Salmond had to step on necks to help out Trump?  Well, maybe folks on this site and in Scotland should start sending their apology letters to Mr. Ford.  Honestly, this entire mess has been disgraceful.  About the only guy who had any power in this sordid affair and acted with any sense of integrity got the sack for his troubles.  No good deed goes unpunished. 

Ciao 

Sean

Regardless of how this fascinating saga plays out, the one thing that Trump did not do is "take them to the cleaners."  What he did do is finance and create a golf course which is miles better than any built in England for nearly a century if not more, and of comparable quality to the best built in Scotland over the past two decades (Kingsbarns, Renaissance, Castle Stuart).  If anyone was "taken to the cleaners" it was Salmond, who overplayed his hand with the wind turbines (which are or more value to him politically than a couple of golf courses, daft as that might seem to be....) and thus cut off his own prominent nose to spite his fat and ugly face.

All that being said, I still hope that the fine people of Scotland find their libidos and/or libedettes and vote for Independence.  The Nation deserves no less.

Coia

Rich

[Sean_A]

Rihc

You haven't heard - Trump Aberdeen isn't for Scots, its for Americans.  What most Scots get out of this is 18 holes in the ground and one less ultra cool place to hang out.  If Trump didn't dupe the Scots, then a duped Salmond did a trick in kind by duping the Scots.

I hope Trump goes back on rhetoric of the past many months and does what he originally promised.  That is the only way any of this sorry mess can be justified. 

I hope the fine people of Scotland vote as they see fit.  I would hate to see a split, but if thats what is in the cards then so be it.  Shake hands, come to grips about how to make it best work for all concerned parties and kick on.  Life goes on. 

Ciao

[Rich Goodale]

Thanks Sean

To paraphrase Victor Hugo (?), you are entitled to your opinions, no matter how daft they might be.

All the best

Rich

[Paul Gray]

Do we think Trump has actually learnt something? Please don't confuse me with somebody that thinks he's anything other than a total prick but his move across the Irish Sea perhaps indicates a realisation that trying to bully a proud and defiant nation doesn't produce the best of results. And nobody saw that coming. 

Watch this space but I'll confidently predict the crass behaviour will now be toned down a bit.....if he can just manage to not compare the view from a golf course with terrorist activity.

[Ally Mcintosh]

I would have liked a hotel at Trump Scotland.... Aberdeen is in desperate need of good ones....

Other than that, the result is a good one says I... The golf course can breathe without an ugly development springing up around it - whether for Americans or locals it will bring tourism and money in to the area - and the Balmedie public park area that was designated for the 2nd course remains for public use....

Essentially as I would have had it from the beginning should I have got the choice

As for Trump Ireland, I can see him searching for planning in those dunes and upping the ante on the lodgings, many of which are a little ugly for my taste so hopefully he can't do much damage there...

[Niall C]

Junior was on the radio/TV yesterday saying that they would likely package up the resi land and sell it on to someone who knows what they are doing. It seems to me that a deal with Stewart Milne might already be in the offing although with that much land it would make sense to parcel it up and sell it chunks to different housebuilders. He may have to put in quite a lot of infrastructure work and hang about selling the lots in phases if he is to fully realise the worth. Not sure what his angle would be with the hotel, whether to sell or to build and forward sell with management agreement in place with a hotel group ? Not a market I'm that familiar with.

For those gnashing their teeth over the lost investment, do not concern yourself. The investment value or the potential investment value was created with the planning permission and will go with the land. In other words another developer will simply do what Donald promised and failed to deliver. It always amzes me that otherwise sensible people can't see that.

Niall

[Adam Lawrence]

Niall - that makes more sense. Take a profit on the land, because of the value added by the residential planning consent etc, realise your investment now and continue to operate the golf course. It seems inconceivable to me that an ego the size of Trump's could countenance selling off the 'greatest golf course on earth'.

[Adrian_Stiff]

If Donald Trump has got permission for homes in the UK...he will build them. The UK home/land value is very different from the US where land prices can escalate up to 1000 fold for a permission for a dwelling versus farmland. This equation may not be the same in Scotland but, its still probably a 100 fold. When these schemes are talked about at 100 Million it means the total value when done of ALL...so with 200 houses equating to £400,000 each thats where the money is. The golf course is not worth much at all, if it cost £7M then its probably worth £4M now. UK situation very different to US. I don't know what he paid for the property but if he has substantial housing then those houses will be worth a lot. Roughly 50% of the sale value per dwelling will be in the land value.

My opinion; Not enough Americans will go to Trump Aberdeen, Not enough Americans will go to Doonbeg. These destinations are still not prime so the first timers go to the Fife area, second timers maybe Ayr. Ireland has that same sort of scenario.

Location, Location, Location.

Looks like we typed the same thing at the same time!

[Ally Mcintosh]

Over time, enough will choose Balmedie when you combine it with Cruden Bay, Royal Aberdeen and Murcar...

When does the permitting on the housing element run out? By when will they have to break ground?

[Adam Lawrence]

Adrian - the planning consent is for 500 houses. The cheapest four bedroom house within five miles of Aberdeen on Rightmove is listed at £325,000 (and that's a Barratt development). So I think your 400k a pop estimate is probably quite conservative. If he were to sell 500 houses at 500k each, that's £250 million. The claim - which I think we're all a bit cynical about - is that US$100 million has been invested in the project so far (the purported value of the entire built-out development has, as far as I can remember, varied from £500 million via US$1 billion to £1 billion).  Clearly he couldn't realise anywhere near that for the golf course alone - but if your number of 50 per cent of the total value of the house lies in the permitted plot, then he could be looking at £125 million for the housing land. Not a bad return when you look at it that way,

[Adrian_Stiff]

Adam - my figures were 'just supposing'. If he has permission for 500 then yes its much more, but if its £500,000 for a 4 bedroom house then more than 50% is in the land value. Standard build cost is probably £100 per sq foot for a house so 1,800 sq ft house is large. All depends on fit out and the luxury upgrades, but Barrett type building wont be more than that and there 4-bedders will be more 1500 sq ft.

Planning permission is where the money is earned. Of course if he is flapping about the eye sore of the wind farm then he is pissing on his own bonfire and chasing the price down.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Ruedi,

you beat me to it. Comparing a wind farm to Pan Am 103 is really beyond the pail. Of course he will build his 2nd course and Hotel/houses but it will probably be on a smaller scale though it was always going to be that way. TBF, I do not think most of the locals give a damn and some would be glad to see the back of his organisation.

Jon & Ruediger,

I read his alleged quote differently.

I don't think he "compared" the two events as you do.

I read it as both events were disasters, absent any comparison.

Like "beauty" perhaps the interpretation is in the perception of the reader.

Jon

[Niall C]

Adrian

Let me preface what I'm about to say by saying that Aberdeen is in it's own economic bubble and therefore the normal rules don't apply.

That said, in Scotland, the housebuilders have only recently got back in the market for buying land. They generally seem to be looking at 10 acre chunks of serviced land with planning. Basically oven ready material. In the central belt I've heard deals of between £400K/acre and £600K/acre gross of any s.75 contributions which can be reasonably hefty. Working off a bottom line price say of £300K to £400K/acre and build ratio of say 10 units per acre for ease of calculation, the average housing plot is being valued at £30K to £40K which suggests your 50% land value house price ratio should perhaps be more like 20%.

I believe Donald was planning more executive style units. Assuming the land to building ratio is similar, which may be a big assumption, then the value might be 20% of £500K to £600K per housing unit. So the equation then becomes 200 x £100K to £120K, say £110K, = £22m. Then deduct the infrastructure costs and factor in a discount if he sells as a single lot. Add back in the value of the existing buildings assuming he decides to sell up, the value of the hotel site and the value of the golf course and when all's said or done I don't know he's going to make the huge sums being talked about. Let me point out that the above isn't an actual valuation and that I haven't any first hand experience of the Aberdeen property market but the above is an example of how you might like to go about analysing what his property might be worth (that sentence is for the lawyers amongst you   )

Niall

ps. just read Adam and Adrian's posts and the number of units needs to be increased however the comments about land value ratios, deductions for infrastructure, discounts for early sales etc are still valid in principle.

[Niall C]

Ruedi,

you beat me to it. Comparing a wind farm to Pan Am 103 is really beyond the pail. Of course he will build his 2nd course and Hotel/houses but it will probably be on a smaller scale though it was always going to be that way. TBF, I do not think most of the locals give a damn and some would be glad to see the back of his organisation.

Jon & Ruediger,

I read his alleged quote differently.

I don't think he "compared" the two events as you do.

I read it as both events were disasters, absent any comparison.

Like "beauty" perhaps the interpretation is in the perception of the reader.

Jon

No, Patrick, his comments were crass, insensitive and stupid. Whether he was nice to your wee boy doesn't change that he was a twat for saying what he did.

Niall

[Adrian_Stiff]

Adrian

Let me preface what I'm about to say by saying that Aberdeen is in it's own economic bubble and therefore the normal rules don't apply.

That said, in Scotland, the housebuilders have only recently got back in the market for buying land. They generally seem to be looking at 10 acre chunks of serviced land with planning. Basically oven ready material. In the central belt I've heard deals of between £400K/acre and £600K/acre gross of any s.75 contributions which can be reasonably hefty. Working off a bottom line price say of £300K to £400K/acre and build ratio of say 10 units per acre for ease of calculation, the average housing plot is being valued at £30K to £40K which suggests your 50% land value house price ratio should perhaps be more like 20%.

I believe Donald was planning more executive style units. Assuming the land to building ratio is similar, which may be a big assumption, then the value might be 20% of £500K to £600K per housing unit. So the equation then becomes 200 x £100K to £120K, say £110K, = £22m. Then deduct the infrastructure costs and factor in a discount if he sells as a single lot. Add back in the value of the existing buildings assuming he decides to sell up, the value of the hotel site and the value of the golf course and when all's said or done I don't know he's going to make the huge sums being talked about. Let me point out that the above isn't an actual valuation and that I haven't any first hand experience of the Aberdeen property market but the above is an example of how you might like to go about analysing what his property might be worth (that sentence is for the lawyers amongst you   )

Niall

ps. just read Adam and Adrian's posts and the number of units needs to be increased however the comments about land value ratios, deductions for infrastructure, discounts for early sales etc are still valid in principle.

Niall - I don't disagree with with much of your post but £500,000 houses don't relate to 1/10 acre plot...(unless your talking London) ten to the acre is housing estate, if a £500,000 house WILL work in Aberdeen at ten to the acre then the land value is more. The old rule was a third, a third, a third...equalling, plot, build, profit. You can build a real cracking house for £200,000. I am not familiar with Scottish building law, though we do have property in Fife and are shortly applying for some planning, but I agree that planning agreements can be substantial. Do you they have any social housing agreements in Scotland.

[Jon Wiggett]

Patrick,

Mr. Trump said “Wind farms are a disaster for Scotland, like Pan Am 103 [the 1988 bombing of a US bound flight].

The word 'like' makes it a comparison unless you are arguing he is using it in the 'facebook' way which would be even more repugnant. It is bad enough that almost 300 people died but to try and use it in this way for his own ends is lower than low. If he were to go on national TV in the USA saying this and I bet the reaction would not be so tolerant. Why bother trying to defend the un-defendable?

Jon

[Patrick_Mucci]

Niall,

I won't argue that the alleged choice of words wasn't poor and in bad taste,
My opinion of Trump's action/s is independent of how he's treated me and my son.

Jon,

I disagree with your direct linkage, comparing the two.

When one states that the Tsunami was a disaster like the volcano eruption, one isn't comparing the two events, one is characterizing or classifying them, stating that they both fit into the category of a disaster.

Or, that saying that Minute Bol is a basketball player, LIKE Spud Webb implies a comparison between the two, when it clearly doesn't

You don't like Trump hence you've chosen your interpretation, and I understand that.

[Mike Sweeney]

If he were to go on national TV in the USA saying this and I bet the reaction would not be so tolerant. Why bother trying to defend the un-defendable?

Jon

Jon,

I have never played a Trump course or stayed in a hotel or resort. His one casino in Atlantic City was a dump last time I was there which was years ago. That said, he has made a career of going on TV here and now has a brand where he is barely a real estate developer and more of a Brand that he licenses. This is from the "Real Deal" which is a NYC respected real estate publication:

http://therealdeal.com/issues_articles/the-8-billion-dollar-man/

“Donald Trump is not a major player in New York City real estate,” said Jordan Barowitz, director of external affairs at the Durst Organization. “My guess is [that he owns] about 1.5 million square feet total. For comparison, the Durst Organization owns 13 million square feet in Manhattan.” (In fact, Trump owns more than 2 million square feet of commercial space in New York City.) Or as Michael T. Cohen, president of the tri-state region at Colliers International, put it: “Trump casts a very large image on the real estate scene considering that he only has [a few large] assets.”

But others noted that Trump has an asset most developers don’t: fame.

“Consumers know his name,” said fellow billionaire and New York real estate titan Richard LeFrak. “That’s what sets him apart.”

______________________

The concept that Trump somehow processes Scotland in a different manner than dozens of other developments in cities and countries around the world is probably not accurate. In addition, the concept that Trump is courting Americans to go to Scotland and Ireland is too narrow. With no real knowledge, my guess is most of his USA tenants and hotel guest are international travelers who purchase property here in NYC for purposes of asset retention and he has a brand that people know internationally.

By posting on this thread, we are both helping his Trump Brand.

[Chris Shaida]

Niall,

I won't argue that the alleged choice of words wasn't poor and in bad taste,
My opinion of Trump's action/s is independent of how he's treated me and my son.

Jon,

I disagree with your direct linkage, comparing the two.

When one states that the Tsunami was a disaster like the volcano eruption, one isn't comparing the two events, one is characterizing or classifying them, stating that they both fit into the category of a disaster.

Or, that saying that Minute Bol is a basketball player, LIKE Spud Webb implies a comparison between the two, when it clearly doesn't

You don't like Trump hence you've chosen your interpretation, and I understand that.

So just using Pat's 'logic' (such as it is), if someone said 'Trump's just the man for Europe, like Hitler was' that would be a-ok in Pat's book since the speaker was just 'classifying' Trump and Hitler as 'men' and nothing else...

 

[Jon Wiggett]

Mike,

guess your right on the mark. I may not like Trump's methods but he does get results there's no doubt in that.

Patrick,

even you must be struggling to believe the crap in your last post.

Jon

[Patrick_Mucci]

Niall,

I won't argue that the alleged choice of words wasn't poor and in bad taste,
My opinion of Trump's action/s is independent of how he's treated me and my son.

Jon,

I disagree with your direct linkage, comparing the two.

When one states that the Tsunami was a disaster like the volcano eruption, one isn't comparing the two events, one is characterizing or classifying them, stating that they both fit into the category of a disaster.

Or, that saying that Minute Bol is a basketball player, LIKE Spud Webb implies a comparison between the two, when it clearly doesn't

You don't like Trump hence you've chosen your interpretation, and I understand that.

So just using Pat's 'logic' (such as it is), if someone said 'Trump's just the man for Europe, like Hitler was' that would be a-ok in Pat's book since the speaker was just 'classifying' Trump and Hitler as 'men' and nothing else...

Chris,

Based upon the statement you presented, ONLY a MORON could draw the conclusion that you're drawn.

A more prudent reading of your statement would be that both men were bad for Europe.

But, your logic barely gets you above MIT status.

 

[Ryan Coles]

How many people died in the Aberdeen wind farm disaster?

Criticism of these comments cannot be dismissed as anti Trump bias. The comments stand alone as a completely insensitive thing to say. 

Crass, disrespectful comments do engender dislike and only a moron would deny Trump's propensity for making such statements.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Ryan,

No doubt that Trump can make some brash and foolish remarks, but I liken the perspectives of those on GCA.com toward Trump to the perspectives of a man courting a women and the same man trying to divorce the same woman.

When he's courting her, she can do nothing wrong.

When he's trying to divorce her, she can do nothing right.

Yet, she's the same woman and hasn't changed one iota.

Trump has been great for golf, that's undeniable.

The question is do you want to court or divorce him

[Mike Sweeney]

Trump has been great for golf, that's undeniable.

The question is do you want to court or divorce him

I would narrow that statement to say that he has been great for high end golf. I don't see him supporting any grass roots efforts other than the Tiger Woods Foundation which he did through his foundation:

http://www.thesmokinggun.com/documents/celebrity/trump-least-charitable-billionaire-109247

[Jon Wiggett]

Ryan,

Trump has been great for golf, that's undeniable.

Apparently it is