OK - Is It Gloom, Doom, or Boom?

[Jim_Kennedy]

This (from NGF) does not seem to reflect what we've all been reading here on GCA.
Who's pulling our Dogleg?

Golf Course Development

Despite the fact that closures continue to outpace openings in the U.S., there is meaningful development activity in the pipeline. With attention focused on golf’s supply reduction over the last seven years, even people in the golf industry are surprised to learn that there are currently about 170 new golf facility projects in various stages of planning and development in the U.S., including 55 now under construction.

NGF’s International Golf Facility Database shows that for the rest of the Americas and the Caribbean, there are an additional 150 projects in the pipeline, with 53 already underway. The number of new golf course projects in the Americas outstrips any other region of the world, including Asia.


  

[Tom_Doak]

The NGF's numbers for courses under construction include everything from courses that just opened (Dismal) to courses that won't open for 2-3 years (Forest Dunes).  So, 55 in the USA might translate to 25 that will open next year.  Even that # sounds slightly high to me.  I know I won't have any, unless big renovations or big putting greens count.

[Terry Lavin]

The residential real estate recovery must be close because we see more articles about "Wall Street" buying homes en masse for flipping. Ain't life grand?  Create the bubble, pop the bubble, pick up the pieces and sell the pieces.

[Jim_Kennedy]

The residential real estate recovery must be close because we see more articles about "Wall Street" buying homes en masse for flipping. Ain't life grand?  Create the bubble, pop the bubble, pick up the pieces and sell the pieces.

Yes, but it's worked so well for them in the past. 

[Jim_Kennedy]

We have one in our neighborhood, the old Silo Ridge GC in Amenia NY. It was originally built by a local asphalt/concrete guy (Al Zikorus was the architect) and served the local population, plus a good amount of play from downstate NY. In 2005 it handled 15k outing rounds along with its regular play.

It is now going to be redeveloped by Discovery Land Co. as an 'enclave',  with a Fazio course and $2mil+ homes.

Good for the tax base in Amenia, not so good for the players in the area.

  

[Tom_Doak]

We have one in our neighborhood, the old Silo Ridge GC in Amenia NY. It was originally built by a local asphalt/concrete guy (Al Zikorus was the architect) and served the local population, plus a good amount of play from downstate NY. In 2005 it handled 15k outing rounds along with its regular play.

It is now going to be redeveloped by Discovery Land Co. as an 'enclave',  with a Fazio course and $2mil+ homes.

Good for the tax base in Amenia, not so good for the players in the area.

Jim:

Tom Fazio told me about that project at Pinehurst last month ... he said it's his first new course job in the U.S.A. in five years, so that is one more out of 55.  He did not mention that there was an existing golf course, though.

[Jaeger Kovich]

We have one in our neighborhood, the old Silo Ridge GC in Amenia NY. It was originally built by a local asphalt/concrete guy (Al Zikorus was the architect) and served the local population, plus a good amount of play from downstate NY. In 2005 it handled 15k outing rounds along with its regular play.

It is now going to be redeveloped by Discovery Land Co. as an 'enclave',  with a Fazio course and $2mil+ homes.

Good for the tax base in Amenia, not so good for the players in the area.

  

I used to play some high school matches there against Kent, although it was much closer to my school than both our home course and the Kent School! It wasn't anything special then, although we liked it better than most the other courses in the area. Not a great golf property, and I cant see who will be buying $2mil new homes in Amenia.

[Jim_Kennedy]

Tom,
TF is also doing another for Discovery, in Southhampton, called Quogue GC. That one is totally new construction, and I guess you could say that the Silo course will be new also. The only parts of the existing course being reused are most of the hole corridors, but a lot of re-routing was evident on the plan.

Jaeger,
Millbrook? TP?

[Joe Jemsek]

Silo ridge has probably been on the NGF list since 2007 or so. I remember walking the property with Dye while we were working at Nassau CC. Discovery Land has a great track record of building high end developments. They really upsell the "easy of play" and "postcard looks" of a typical Fazio course. Not sure 2 million dollar lots or homes will work in Armenia, but I never seen prices too high for a New York crowd.

[Jim_Kennedy]

Joe,
I don't doubt that as the development has stalled for a few years. The first iteration included many more homes & condos plus a large hotel, a winery, and a 'downtown' with several stores and restaurants. One of the sticking points (outside of the economy) that kept it from moving forward was the town's refusal to accept control of the sewer plant needed to service the development.

Amenia was always a bridge too far - too far from Westchester, too far from the Berkshires, too far from any 'upscale' amenities. The timing for this may work for them as Millerton ( 15miles N) has seen a real transformation over the past 1/2 decade and 'Westchester' has almost reached Wingdale (15miles S).





 

[Tom_Doak]

Tom,
TF is also doing another for Discovery, in Southhampton, called Quogue GC. That one is totally new construction, and I guess you could say that the Silo course will be new also. The only parts of the existing course being reused are most of the hole corridors, but a lot of re-routing was evident on the plan.

Jim:

I knew about the Quogue project, but it's certainly not under construction yet, as they don't have permits.  My friends in Long Island are very skeptical that the project will ever get permits, but that's another story.  Anyway, it belongs with all of those 170 projects listed by NGF -- maybe they'll happen someday.

[Jaeger Kovich]

Tom,
TF is also doing another for Discovery, in Southhampton, called Quogue GC. That one is totally new construction, and I guess you could say that the Silo course will be new also. The only parts of the existing course being reused are most of the hole corridors, but a lot of re-routing was evident on the plan.

Jaeger,
Millbrook? TP?

Millbrook

[Jim_Kennedy]

Tom,
So NGF is stacking 'em all up.
It appears that DLC is bending over backwards for approval on LI, but they have been plowing up some fairways at Silo Ridge.

Jaeger,
Great spot.

[Mike_Young]

Sounds good but makes no sense....this is what the NGF does...

A better question for the GCA industry is what is total design fee market in the US?
If one was to average a new course design at $500,000 ( and that might be high) then 155 courses would be a 75 million dollar market over three years etc.  Add in the redo market and there just really isn't enough to keep people working....nless they are building them also

Also wonder if the sigs fees have come down?  Doubt we will ever know

[Bradley Anderson]

The NGF was hired to analyze operations of a club that my friend worked at. I couldn't believe the recommendations.

The golf course is located in a metropolitan region that added 10 new golf courses during the 1990's. The veteran staff were commended for operating the facility at a budget below what comparable operations spend, but the community was unwilling to pay an extra $5.00 or so per round to compensate the dilution of rounds. The NGF recommended putting the operations up for bid.

In other words, the veteran staff were punished because the NGF encouraged dilution of their livelihood.

[Jim_Kennedy]

Sounds good but makes no sense....this is what the NGF does...

A better question for the GCA industry is what is total design fee market in the US?
If one was to average a new course design at $500,000 ( and that might be high) then 155 courses would be a 75 million dollar market over three years etc.  Add in the redo market and there just really isn't enough to keep people working....nless they are building them also

Also wonder if the sigs fees have come down?  Doubt we will ever know

How many courses need to be built per year to 'keep people working'?  Does the construction market still depend largely on residential sales? Replacement of courses that are presently going under doesn't seem a big part of the market. How many more courses can the  'remote' segment produce? How about the municipal market?

What's the number?

[Dan Herrmann]

Doom - the unemployment rate (the real one  - the U-6) is still WAY too high.