[Jeff_Brauer]

Ian,

While my son is a stockbroker, I would have welcomed him.  Also, ask many young folks and I have been optimistic.  It may stem from the fact that I entered the biz in 1977, not long after the oil crush of 1974, the Nixon impeachment, a similar economy and one thing that had folks scared back then - tax deductions for memberships were greatly reduced!

As my mentor used to say, "Golf's been going strong since 1500...I think we can say it will last."  There have and will be ups and downs.  Besides that, the world is sooooo big.  For the relatively few courses we talk about here, or the fewer renovations to high profile courses, there are 15,000 US courses, maybe 25,000 worldwide, and all of them do some work most years.  The trick is to capture that in a business model, be it through more travel, leaner organization, more digital transfer of info, or whatever.  

Some bright young person shall capture all that is necessary to be a success.  20% will have some success, and 80% will struggle, about the same stats as it has always been.

[Frank Pont]

In addition to the above stated challenges, there is another variable in the equation equally vital to this calculus: dwindling participation in the sport. If you look closely at the studies of golfing a troubling trend has emerged; fewer juniors taking up the game (the essential lifeblood for growth), the aging demographic, the growing diversity of cultures in N.A who do not identify with the sport, and perhaps most interesting in Golf Canada’s recent survey 75 % of golfers said they could “take or leave the game” The economic meltdown of 2008 just revealed what was already evolving. So in terms of “up and coming” young architects they will have to acquire a myriad of skills unrelated to GCA as Frank has referred too and renovation/restoration work will likely be their ” bread and butter”( and needed focus) for their career. Put another way. How many current GCA would encourage their children, who expressed interest, in choosing golf course architecture as a career?




www.alberthmurray.com

I wouldn't. First get a university degree if you have the capabilities, do somrthing fun, make some money and then when you are 35 try your luck if you are still hooked.

Then again there are those such as Jeff Stein, a very smart young man with a university degree, that will do anything (looping, greenkeeping, grunt work and now shaping) to become a great architect. And you know what, one day he might be the next Doak or Coore. But few have what it takes to follow this route like he does.

[Chris DeToro]

But for some of the next generation, their productive years might be much later, after they've raised their families and struggled through the lean years without having to travel so far afield.  Think of the guys like MacKenzie, who survived the slow times [like World War I] in other pursuits, and then were very productive from ages 45-60.  In fact, just because a young and talented guy quits the business now, doesn't mean he couldn't come back to dominate when things pick up again, if he was really smart about it.  But, accumulated experience is usually the surer means to success.

No one on this thread so far has mentioned CONSTRUCTION ABILITY as a key to future success.  I think it's a huge part of it.  What I can tell you for sure, is that the people I mentioned in my earlier post are able to tell their potential clients that they can get the golf course not just designed but BUILT, with some pretty good overlap of fees.  And that's really appealing to clients.  All of you brilliant young designers had better be ready to compete with that.  

Tom, you make a couple really interesting points here.  Thinking of my own career and what recruiters look for in my line of work and the current state of the economy, it's a tough sell sometimes to make a sort of career transition.  How would one stay involved, yet pursue other means?  I guess, in your mind, what is the 'minimum' one must stay in the business while pursuing other interests?  

Also, great point on construction ability.  Being more of a novice and only cursorily involved in evaluating this type of work through my involvement on the greens committee, I never really realized what an impact this could make.  Our club's architect, who could build, in addition to our own staff's building ability, is the only way we could've made our restoration/renovation feasible.  

[Mike_Young]

Frank,
It wasn't long ago that many GCA's looked upon selling ability as a bad thing and would use that as a slam against competitors.  Things like: " he's terrible but he's a really good salesman"   Of course the ones that could sell never let that bother them anyway.  

Ian,
My son works with me but before he did he got a finance degree and worked for a large resort development internationally.  The only thing we did to make it where he could justify working with me until things evolve again was to diversify within the golf business.  I think he will do fine.

[Frank Pont]

But for some of the next generation, their productive years might be much later, after they've raised their families and struggled through the lean years without having to travel so far afield.  Think of the guys like MacKenzie, who survived the slow times [like World War I] in other pursuits, and then were very productive from ages 45-60.  In fact, just because a young and talented guy quits the business now, doesn't mean he couldn't come back to dominate when things pick up again, if he was really smart about it.

Tom, you make a couple really interesting points here.  Thinking of my own career and what recruiters look for in my line of work and the current state of the economy, it's a tough sell sometimes to make a sort of career transition.  How would one stay involved, yet pursue other means?  I guess, in your mind, what is the 'minimum' one must stay in the business while pursuing other interests?  

On reading this I immediately had to think of Chris Hunt, a former class mate in Edinburgh, where we studied GCA together. Probably the most talented guy I have seen in this industry, and very smart as well. Worked for Doak and C&C, but then dropped out of the industry for pernonal reasons, and now is a  very succesfull banker ( sort of the reverse of my story). I would not be surprised to see him come back one day and deliver us with something brilliant.....

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