[Matthew Lloyd]

Regardless of the sport, one of the things I like to do is follow up-and-coming talent and prospects before they explode onto the scene.

Re golf course design specifically, who are some young architects to watch in the next several years?  I’m referring primarily to those working under a more established designer and serving an apprenticeship of sorts and/or honing their craft, or independent designers who are just starting to break out with their more of their own courses. 

It would be great to get some tips and intel re who should be on everyone’s radar.

[Tom_Doak]

Matthew:

It is really difficult to predict this sort of thing -- now more than ever due to the paucity of work available in America.  It is really hard for a young architect to win a commission for a great project, when the experienced guys are not too busy to look at it.

Therefore, I think it is more likely than before that the "most likely to succeed" are some of the guys who have worked for me or for Bill Coore, once the two of us want to do less.  Gil Hanse, Rod Whitman and Mike DeVries all fit that description, and I'm guessing some of the next generation will, too.  I have some guesses as to which of the people that have come through our projects are most likely to succeed, but I think it would be unfair for me to put my thumb on the scale in favor of one or another.  I've had a ton of talent helping build my courses; the question is which of them will be able to market themselves, and are willing to make the commitment to chase the dream the hardest [which is not always the same thing as which is the most talented].

[Garland Bayley]

I would say watch Jay Blasi.
Dan Hixson would be another to watch. Don't know his age, but he has started afresh with Bandon Crossings and Wine Valley. Now working on the Grant and Harney courses.

[J_ Crisham]

Jay Blasi looks like the front runner- Chambers Bay and The Patriot speak for themselves. Looking forward to see his renovation of Sentry World .

[Lyne Morrison]

In a somewhat related manner; in recent times when having a chat with a well regarded architect he suggested that the industry may loose a generation of talent due to the down turn. Perhaps the question is, will the critical talent endure through the next generation?

Lyne

[Ben Stephens]

Me! if had another opportunity and it would also include a fantastic clubhouse design working alongside with Boony

From GCA I would say the following:

Mike Cocking - he does fantastic sketches which translates into actual golf holes see Bonnie Doon (also the rest of the Ogilvy Clayton design team)
Frank Pont
Jonathan Davison
Robin Hiseman - if he was allowed to do a Mike Strantz like design it would be awesome
Ally Macintosh (sorry I forgot you initially) the work done at Carne is something to look forward to!


I look forward to all of the above's future work

[Ally Mcintosh]

In a somewhat related manner; in recent times when having a chat with a well regarded architect he suggested that the industry may loose a generation of talent due to the down turn. Perhaps the question is, will the critical talent endure through the next generation?

Lyne

This.

The best thing that could happen is that the cream of the older established order continue to get work whilst some of the less talented architects who relied mainly on a buoyant market start to wind down.

There are too many so-so designers out there who continue to get work based on experience and networking contacts alone. I don't think this will change (and why should it you might say?) but it needs to if a generation of young talent is to thrive in the next 20 years.

[Ben Stephens]

In a somewhat related manner; in recent times when having a chat with a well regarded architect he suggested that the industry may loose a generation of talent due to the down turn. Perhaps the question is, will the critical talent endure through the next generation?

Lyne

This.


The best thing that could happen is that the cream of the older established order continue to get work whilst some of the less talented architects who relied mainly on a buoyant market start to wind down.

There are too many so-so designers out there who continue to get work based on experience and networking contacts alone. I don't think this will change (and why should it you might say?) but it needs to if a generation of young talent is to thrive in the next 20 years.

Ally - I have added you to my shortlist. This is a similar story in architecture where well established practices are likely to get the big jobs because they have a much bigger turnover and they have the necessary resources required by the client.

Its a shame that there is not many open competitions to find the best design it is Expressions of Interest and the judges pick a shortlist of architectural practices which they think is best suited to the job not the best design.

Its the way the world works and smaller practices and sole traders are having to work harder these days

Cheers
Ben

[Frank Pont]

Me! if had another opportunity and it would also include a fantastic clubhouse design working alongside with Boony

From GCA I would say the following:

Mike Cocking - he does fantastic sketches which translates into actual golf holes see Bonnie Doon (also the rest of the Ogilvy Clayton design team)
Frank Pont
Jonathan Davison
Robin Hiseman - if he was allowed to do a Mike Strantz like design it would be awesome
Ally Macintosh (sorry I forgot you initially) the work done at Carne is something to look forward to!


I look forward to all of the above's future work

Ben,

honoured to be on your list. However I will be limited in the foreseeable future by the flat Dutch agricultural sites as my canvasses, as I do not want to be from home for long periods as long as my kids are small, so chances are I won't be doing the next Bandon for a while.....

Personally I would also add Jeff Mingay, Mike Nuzzo, Tim Lobb and Philip Spogaard to your list.

Of these on the list the biggest chance to see a new masterpiece being made is probably Jonathan, because he is based in E Europe where most of the real hot golf properties will be coming out in the next 10-15 years.

[Ally Mcintosh]

Me! if had another opportunity and it would also include a fantastic clubhouse design working alongside with Boony

From GCA I would say the following:

Mike Cocking - he does fantastic sketches which translates into actual golf holes see Bonnie Doon (also the rest of the Ogilvy Clayton design team)
Frank Pont
Jonathan Davison
Robin Hiseman - if he was allowed to do a Mike Strantz like design it would be awesome
Ally Macintosh (sorry I forgot you initially) the work done at Carne is something to look forward to!


I look forward to all of the above's future work

Ben,

honoured to be on your list. However I will be limited in the foreseeable future by the flat Dutch agricultural sites as my canvasses, as I do not want to be from home for long periods as long as my kids are small, so chances are I won't be doing the next Bandon for a while.....

Personally I would also add Jeff Mingay, Mike Nuzzo, Tim Lobb and Philip Spogaard to your list.

Of these on the list the biggest chance to see a new masterpiece being made is probably Jonathan, because he is based in E Europe where most of the real hot golf properties will be coming out in the next 10-15 years.

Philip is showing that dedication, a clear talent and a good manner and business mind is a real winner. He set out on his own after just 2 or 3 years working for Tim Lobb (designing the excellent looking Carya in to the bargain) and has really established his partnership with Michiel Van der Vaart...

He is the most likely to succeed of the real young uns in Europe (under 40) because he is half way there already....

Christian Lundin is another well set on his way.

Poland / Slovakia / Eastern Europe might certainly be the growth market with good sites in the coming years in Europe, I agree Frank...

I see Robin Hiseman and Tim Lobb as established already so not sure I'd include them here... Do expect some great things from Robin in future though...

[Ben Stephens]

Me! if had another opportunity and it would also include a fantastic clubhouse design working alongside with Boony

From GCA I would say the following:

Mike Cocking - he does fantastic sketches which translates into actual golf holes see Bonnie Doon (also the rest of the Ogilvy Clayton design team)
Frank Pont
Jonathan Davison
Robin Hiseman - if he was allowed to do a Mike Strantz like design it would be awesome
Ally Macintosh (sorry I forgot you initially) the work done at Carne is something to look forward to!


I look forward to all of the above's future work

Ben,

honoured to be on your list. However I will be limited in the foreseeable future by the flat Dutch agricultural sites as my canvasses, as I do not want to be from home for long periods as long as my kids are small, so chances are I won't be doing the next Bandon for a while.....

Personally I would also add Jeff Mingay, Mike Nuzzo, Tim Lobb and Philip Spogaard to your list.

Of these on the list the biggest chance to see a new masterpiece being made is probably Jonathan, because he is based in E Europe where most of the real hot golf properties will be coming out in the next 10-15 years.

Philip is showing that dedication, a clear talent and a good manner and business mind is a real winner. He set out on his own after just 2 or 3 years working for Tim Lobb (designing the excellent looking Carya in to the bargain) and has really established his partnership with Michiel Van der Vaart...

He is the most likely to succeed of the real young uns in Europe (under 40) because he is half way there already....

Christian Lundin is another well set on his way.

Poland / Slovakia / Eastern Europe might certainly be the growth market with good sites in the coming years in Europe, I agree Frank...

I see Robin Hiseman and Tim Lobb as established already so not sure I'd include them here... Do expect some great things from Robin in future though...

Looking forward to see Robin's debut Golf Course Architecture book! - Its on Mike Strantz so it should be a fascinating read!

[Philip Spogard]

Frank and Ally - thanks for the comments. I appreciate it.

This is a quite interesting conversation as it is obviously something which is close to my mind. I agree with Tom's comments about the future. This is a tough time to establish - not just a name - but a surviving company. There are few new projects around (9 or 18 holes), which is what you need to keep the business afloat. Renovations will just not be enough as a single type of income. However, the future for new builds look grim.

We have worked hard - and have been fortunate - to win some awards and establish some good contacts which keeps us reasonably busy during the crisis (so far). We have also managed to build on the success of our projects, so that we continue to move upwards and now work with courses in the European Top 100 , European Tour Courses and courses with good potential.

If I look around Europe, I would think that more or less 50% (this might be incorrect) of the golf course architects making a living of it 5 years ago are either out of business or doing it part time. Yes - a generation can be lost.

I would all second the names mentioned so far, but would also include my good friend and former colleague Andrew Goosen who just started his own company in Cape Town - The Morris Golf Co. He is multi-skilled, a great architect and has a superb personality.

These are really the skills you need - being successful as a one/two-man business you have to be a great architect (deliver quality when you get the chance), a great salesman (perhaps the most important bit when having your own company), great at PR, handling the daily running of the company - and off course be able to balance family life besides it (as Frank mentions).

Good luck to all young architects out there.

[Jeff_Brauer]

Interesting.

I suppose we might lose some talent, but I still see similar amounts of young kids with dreams, maybe down a little.  I saw one such young Euro architect at a recent golf conference and he reminded me that I had been unfailingly optimistic and encouraging about his prospects of joining the profession.

History shows that it didn't take much to reestablish GCA starting in 1946 after WWII, but an analysis of the numbers might be interesting.  ASGCA started in 1946 with 11 members and we know Dick Wilson wasn't in attendance, but probably qualified.  That downturn lasted approximately 15 years.  That time frame would put the end of this one at about 2023.  I suspect we have a larger pool of dormant or under utilized gca's that might jump back into the business full time.  By virtue of population, golf is simply bigger, although subject to other trends that mean its % of growth will almost certainly be smaller, so the comeback will probably be a bit smaller than in the 1950's by course volume, at least in the US, but probably not worldwide.

But, with most of our stars at ages 50+, it will be the younger names who do that.  So, who are the best architects young in the world?  It would seem that someone 45 or less would need to take the reigns, since that seems to be the prime of most gca's careers.  That means the next stars will be 35 or less right now, but with some experience already, preferably with a name gca.

If you are currently a gca, persistent, funded with a working wife or trust fund, willing to globe trot, talented and end up in the right place, that could be YOU!

[Tom_Doak]

Jeff:

I agree with your analysis on the age of our future stars, generally, but we might be wrong about that.  It's really a function of several interlocking factors.

There is no way I'm going to be busier over the next ten years than the last ten -- even if the work was there, I'm a bit burned out from all of the accumulated travel.  That wasn't great for my family -- the last of our kids just graduated from high school, just when I'm home more -- but I had to take the opportunity while it was there.  

But for some of the next generation, their productive years might be much later, after they've raised their families and struggled through the lean years without having to travel so far afield.  Think of the guys like MacKenzie, who survived the slow times [like World War I] in other pursuits, and then were very productive from ages 45-60.  In fact, just because a young and talented guy quits the business now, doesn't mean he couldn't come back to dominate when things pick up again, if he was really smart about it.  But, accumulated experience is usually the surer means to success.

No one on this thread so far has mentioned CONSTRUCTION ABILITY as a key to future success.  I think it's a huge part of it.  What I can tell you for sure, is that the people I mentioned in my earlier post are able to tell their potential clients that they can get the golf course not just designed but BUILT, with some pretty good overlap of fees.  And that's really appealing to clients.  All of you brilliant young designers had better be ready to compete with that.  

[Mike_Young]

I think Jeff has it about right with his timeframe.

I wish all the guys mentioned the best of luck but I'm not sure we even know the "young guys" that were born at the right time yet.  I think this discussion group has always approached the business from an idealistic side.  Pete Dye said that  while in the army during World War II he played Pinehurst No. 2 many times, never knowing who the architect was.  He says he wouldn’t have known “Donald Ross from Betsy Ross” at the time.  And Likewise, Shell’s Wonderful World of Golf in the 1960’s was filmed at some of the greatest courses in the world. Rarely, if ever, was the architect of the course identified.   This just goes to show that before Sea Pines and Nicklaus/Dye's Harbortown effort there was not much celebrity status bestowed to GCA.  After the early 70's most all signature architects had some attachment or connection to a player.  And fortunate for RTJ was that another had his name also    And now we have a segment of courses being built on great sites by high net worth guys who can "play with them" until they tire of them.  The last guys  are the art collectors of golf.  Not all successful architects will have a piece in their galleries.

Just look at any Association's list of architects and their respective courses.  Most will list courses designed for a larger firm while they were employed under that firm's banner.  They will have left during the downturn and opened their own shop and many if not most will not have a single design in their name.  (name on the scorecard)  It will then be followed by a huge list of "consulting projects" which will mostly mean they went to that course to look at a bunker or a green one day.  They may get a bunker rework project or a few greens to rebuild each year.  This model will not survive except for a few "talented" exceptions.   Many of these guys spent years under a signature but never developed their own name anywhere  and in some cases developed an "air" about them because of who they worked for.  They may have plenty of talent but they were working for firms where they did not have to sell their product and that was never learned.  Most all of this will just fade away.   The new young guys we will watch will be trained like TD's guys.  They will not be as plan focused and will be able to put it on the ground and they will love what they do.  

So what I'm trying to say to any young guy is make sure you define success before you get into this business.  When it comes back in the 2020's the ones that will be the "luckiest" (but maybe not talented) will be sons, daughters or relatives of the guys building in the 80's and 90's.  Why?  Because  they would have had a stable of courses  their fathers had designed during the 80's and 90's and could justify staying in the business because of rework etc. .  If they happen to have talent to combine with their luck of being born in the business then they have a very good chance.

I'm still not sure golf will come back as a RE development element.  Hopefully it will come back as a demand element.  There will never be more than about five names known worldwide and young guys coming in need to understand that.  But I would wager if any of you were to move to a particular place in the USA or Europe you would find several young guys you considered very talented.  These are the guys that will have the greatest amount of success as a group.  

[Frank Pont]

There is a lot of truth in what Philip states in his post, but there are two areas where I diverge from what he says:

First that you cannot live from renovations alone. It actually is very easy to live very well just off renovations and restorations, the problem is you have to be established in the market and be able to sell well. Its hard if you woke up yesterday with no new builds anymore and then want to go into renovations, because you lack the relationships and expertise which will take some years to build up. The trick in this business is to find the right balance between new builds and renovations that you enjoy and that allows you to pay the bills consistently. In my case that is 2/3 renovations/restorations and 1/3 new builds.

The second is that there isn't enough business out there. There is tons of business out there, but you have to have the time to go and get it. I started out in GB three years ago with my first client (Tandridge), and now have 10 clients which are all top 100-150. But if I would have just focussed on sales I could have had 20-30 clients by now. Similarly I have not ventured into Germany, but am sure I could have had 20 clients there as well f I started there 3 years ago. The reason I did not is because I would have had to hire 3-4 associates to cover the actual work (the Hawtree model), something I have no desire of doing because of the horrible European labour laws and maybe more importantly because I do not want to be a sales machine and have others do the work, but want to do the work myself. Building a pyramid organisation is great for earning more money, but if I wanted more money I would have stayed in banking

My biggest business problem is the total unpredictability of when new builds that I have in the pipeline can actually be built. The uncertainty lies in the regulatory issues which make the start date of any new project like a lottery. I currently have 5-10 new builds (9 and 18 holes) in the Benelux that could start between 12 and 60 months depending on how various law suits and government procedures go. Al these projects would start building tomorrow if permits were given. This NIMBY mentality is the real killer of our industry in Europe, and I often look jealous at the speed with which projects aboard are being done.

The other danger is when all of the projects then come in at the same moment, which is one of the reasons I have been developing relationships with likeminded architects and shapers to form some sort of grouping that will help each other out in such a case.

Coming back to the market, I am not sure that this depression is such a bad thing for GCA. Coming from the Chicago school I firmly believe that these depression clean out the froth that appears in the boom/bubble years, and that only the strongest and most dedicated players will survive in this harsher climate. Its not a nice or sentimental story, but that's how life is.

[Philip Spogard]

There is a lot of truth in what Philip states in his post, but there are two areas where I diverge from what he says:

First that you cannot live from renovations alone. It actually is very easy to live very well just off renovations and restorations, the problem is you have to be established in the market and be able to sell well. Its hard if you woke up yesterday with no new builds anymore and then want to go into renovations, because you lack the relationships and expertise which will take some years to build up. The trick in this business is to find the right balance between new builds and renovations that you enjoy and that allows you to pay the bills consistently. In my case that is 2/3 renovations/restorations and 1/3 new builds.

Hi Frank.

I guess we agree then - you can not live on renovations alone - you have to make at least 1/3 of your income from new builds.  

This is one of the main problems for younger and less established architects - as you mention - due to the lack off and unpredictable nature of the new builds. This is truer now than ever. (You can chase up renovation work, but for each project comes considerable added communication time which you have to deal with on top of your other projects. I - like yourself - want to handle my own project, and have no ambition of being a sales machine on the road. This makes it tough finding a balance between enough projects and being able to put enough time into each project).

If you are a 'shaper-architect' you can have certain advantages as you can potentially get a piece of a larger fee (design fee plus construction fee) - but you are also then forced to take on some quite (legally) big responsibilities which you might not be equipped to handle in a younger age (<35), due to a lack of experience and practical knowledge.

[Frank Pont]

Philip,

Sorry but I either wasn't clear enough or you misunderstood me, but I can easily live just off the renovation work (which is currently 2/3 of my revenues), but I chose to keep time free to pursue and execute new build projects. (in the future years I even expect revenues to be split 50/50 because I have been able to raise my fee for new builds quite a lot).

What is true is that new builds pay better than renovation work, but I have as much fun doing both, and renovation work is much more predictable (or in banking terms lower beta).

One thing I would advise young architects is to first get some real jobs. I have a lot of advantage in terms of knowledge, sales skills and process skills in having been a civil engineer, strategy consultant and M&A banker before I became a golf architect. I firmly believe that is one of the big reasons I have been able to do well and grow in this depressed market.

[Jeff_Brauer]

I think you can live on renovations alone....hundreds have for as long as I can recall.  I grant you, having that one new course fee a year does help the revenue side of the equation, but an 18 hole blowout for nearly full fee will work almost as well.

I worked 7 years for Killian and Nugent.  They had five new course equivalents in those years (Kemper Lakes, Lake Arrowhead, Forest Preserve National , Ditto (Arlington, TX) and two nine hole courses (Joe Black, Chicago, Poplar Forest, Virginia).

The rest was master plans, single (or double greens) and sometimes bigger renovations.  I recall Toro telling me they sent out 300 corporate packages.  Even at the height of the boom, about ten guys took up more than 80% of the new courses built, and us mid level guys did okay, but over half of those probably never had a new course built.  I doubted I would ever build a dozen new courses when I started.  I have been lucky with over 50, but even successful guys like Damian Pascuzzo only have 15-20 to their credit, and experienced the boom.

gca.com member Trey Kemp works for my former associate John Colligan.  He has been gone for 15 years now, and has only two truly new courses (maybe three, not sure) to his credit, but has been very successful in the renovation market, often being the busiest gca in the DFW market.  For that matter, better known Ron Forse and Ron Pritchard may only have a few courses each to their credit, but remain busy.  I know there are others I am forgetting.

The young guys may have to adjust their sights a bit, but the "greybeard" take is that it may be a case of business returning to what us old guys in the biz call "normal" rather than exceptional.  

But, Frank is right, the boom and bust cycle, trying to account for work flows, etc. are big issues for small firms.  A Fazio at the peak could go from 8 to 10 courses pretty easily.  Going from 1 to 3 is still just two more projects, but also a 300% increase in business, not 25% increase of the first example.  Like him, I have rounded up my regular part time contract labor staff and then am reaching out to the extended part time contract labor staff in case it gets busier quick (which it may....)

[Philip Spogard]

Frank and Jeff - thanks for the comments.

I think our business is very similar. I guess you can live from renovation work alone - but what I should have said is more precise: that you need a larger project (being lets say a 9 hole new build, 18 hole new build or a large scale renovation project) relatively often (every 1-2-3 years). The small scale consulting renovation projects are - in my opinion - not enough when you are a small setup, because there is so much time invested in acquisition and communication. But these are also the guys who call you when they want to build their new course, so over a long career it works well investing in a good network.

I think we have invoiced 30 different clients just this year alone - and the same last year - so we are also comfortable doing renovation. I like it a lot - but prefer the 'security' of having a good mix.

[Frank Pont]

I think we have invoiced 30 different clients just this year alone - and the same last year - so we are also comfortable doing renovation. I like it a lot - but prefer the 'security' of having a good mix.

Philip,

That is the advantage of you and Michiel having bought into Gerard Jol's big practice, the downside of that of course being that it will hurt your economics for years to come (Gerard needs to be paid).

I am happy I built up my own practice in the last 10 years from scratch, but it is true I could only afford it because I had saved enough money to be able to afford 2-3 dry years before I could hold up my own pants. Which is another reason to first have a real job before getting into the business...

[Jeff_Brauer]

Frank and Phillip,

I think the scariest "mix" of clients I even heard of was a lesser known firm who had a big retirement home builder as 90% of their base.  That all went away in the crash, but for a dozen years, it was probably easier than "selling" a bunch of new clients a year.  With 30, I suspect a fair portion of them are return clients, but with all the "vultures" out there looking for work, you cannot even take them for granted.

As to the real job, I don't know if you are referring to a job and trying to keep your practice open?  From what I have seen and experienced, you need to be committed full time to "the biz" to have a chance.  I do know some fairly well known, mid level American architects who currently (or at least recently) worked stocking shelves at Home Depot or similar at night to keep the doors open on their business, so times are desperate.

I still have my 1984 "first year business plan". On a yellow sheet of paper, it reads "Draw plans at night.  9AM-5PM reserved for marketing."

[Frank Pont]

Frank and Phillip,

I think the scariest "mix" of clients I even heard of was a lesser known firm who had a big retirement home builder as 90% of their base.  That all went away in the crash, but for a dozen years, it was probably easier than "selling" a bunch of new clients a year.  

That's not a strategy but sheer stupidity.....

[Frank Pont]

Frank,

As to the real job, I don't know if you are referring to a job and trying to keep your practice open?   

I do know some fairly well known, mid level American architects who currently (or at least recently) worked stocking shelves at Home Depot or similar at night to keep the doors open on their business, so times are desperate.

Jeff,

I am talking about before you get in the business go and get some real world experience in jobs where you will learn skills that will be very valuable as a golf architect.

These skills are:

- analytical skills
- sales skills
- project management skills
- process skill (probably the hardest part, many of the famous GCA's I met did not have these skills (enough)).

Also it does not hurt to save some money (not a bad thing to do in any case   )

Working at Home Depot filling shelves is a waste of time in any case and is just an act of desperation. You never want to get to a point where you have that as your only option left.

[Ian Murray]

In addition to the above stated challenges, there is another variable in the equation equally vital to this calculus: dwindling participation in the sport. If you look closely at the studies of golfing a troubling trend has emerged; fewer juniors taking up the game (the essential lifeblood for growth), the aging demographic, the growing diversity of cultures in N.A who do not identify with the sport, and perhaps most interesting in Golf Canada’s recent survey 75 % of golfers said they could “take or leave the game” The economic meltdown of 2008 just revealed what was already evolving. So in terms of “up and coming” young architects they will have to acquire a myriad of skills unrelated to GCA as Frank has referred too and renovation/restoration work will likely be their ” bread and butter”( and needed focus) for their career. Put another way. How many current GCA would encourage their children, who expressed interest, in choosing golf course architecture as a career?




www.alberthmurray.com

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