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Bryan Izatt

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.................  at least according to PGA Tour driving distance stats.  Did the USGA have it right, that they have contained driving distance?  It's been a decade of no substantive distance change.  Perhaps those clubs that are obsessed with providing a challenge to long hitters can now focus on an optimal yardage to provide whatever level of challenge they want without too much fear that there'll be another quantum step in driving distance.  Or, is the answer still a roll back of the ball/equipment to some arbitrary shorter standard?






Steve Lang

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 8) Bryan,

Have you looked at the individual distributions of player's driving distances?  Take the 2013 Masters as example, an elite field, lots of pressure for sure, here's distribution of driving distances for players that made the cut...  median in the 290 range, just like the recent data, but the range i think is the thing to concentrate on..



« Last Edit: October 18, 2013, 11:50:12 PM by Steve Lang »
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Bryan Izatt

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Steve,

No I have not, but for you, here is the distribution of the 2013 driving distance averages.  It describes, as I would expect, a more or less normal bell curve between 270 and 310 yards.  BTW, the bottom chart in the opening post shows the difference between the longest and shortest hitters on tour over the years.  The delta has stayed pretty constant post 1995.

The Masters data is a little misleading since the field, and occasionally the cut, includes some before-their-prime and past-their-prime players who create outliers at the bottom end, for instance the 14 year Chinese kid Guan.

What do you see in the distribution and range?




Brent Hutto

Yep, from 1993 to 2003 the typical Tour player added something like 28 yards to his driving distance. The rest of that long-term trend chart looks like basically an equilibrium situation obtained in the 80's and early 90's and a new equilibrium has developed from about 2005 onward.

Of course there is still some driving distance potential unrealized seeing as how not every Tour player hits driver on every hole. So one alternative explanation that no doubt forms at least a small part of that pattern is the possibility that current driving distance reflect not an absolutely 'hit it as far as I can every time" limit but rather it's a sweet spot in the risk-vs-reward calculation, conditional on the course setups on which they play.

My theory for quite some time has been that there's a slow, inexorable  increase in distance capability as each generation of players becomes stronger and develops better technique. But that's a slow process and would take decades to cause, say, a 10-yard increase in median driving distance. The USGA was derelict in the golf ball regulation duties for basically the decade of the 1990's. That caused a one-time almost step function increase of around 25-30 yards on top of the natural slow evolution that existed before and since that period. To a certain extent the changeover in drivers contributed but I think the ProV1 effect swamped the Titanium effect, so to speak.

Steve Lang

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 8) Bryan,

I see more skew to < 290 in that histogram..

What lead me to look at range and distribution were those two "ramp-down" periods in your second "delta" chart ... 2005 - 2008 and then 2009-2013

so what happened between 04-05 and 08-09?  why those jumps and then why the overall decline back to delta status of 1990?  Did it take that long to shake out the "variability" and then re-establish the equilibrium Brent refers to?  LIke the King is dead, long live the King!

I like Brent's "sweetspot" concept.  I remember a Hogan quote in response to a question of why didn't he hit a driver on some holes?  "..don't need to".

So long driving will always be a fun factor or advantage for those who can or dare, and envy for those that can't or mother of invention..

p.s. what ever happened to Flo & Eddy?
« Last Edit: October 19, 2013, 10:12:39 AM by Steve Lang »
Inverness (Toledo, OH) cathedral clock inscription: "God measures men by what they are. Not what they in wealth possess.  That vibrant message chimes afar.
The voice of Inverness"