Major venues and quality of winners

[Cliff Hamm]

ESPN the magazine had the following chart in their latest issue, the body issue.  As an aside it features Gary Player without clothing.  As egocentric as any athlete, ever.  I recall years ago his statement that he was in the greatest shape of any athlete.  Now at 77 he is trying to prove it, but I digress.

Anyway the sidebar states "If we judge championship courses by the quality of their winners (news flash: We do), then Muirfield is the greatest major venue in the world.  Its six modern-era champs boast the highest average career majors of any major host's".

A chart indicating the average number of golfing majors won by champions at each course over the past 60 years; minimum five majors hosted.

Muirfield 8.5
Pebble Beach 7.2
Baltusrol 6.3
Oak Hill 6.0
Carnoustie 6.0
St. Andrews 5.7
Oakmont 5.6
Royal Birkdale 4.3
Southern Hills 4.o
Royal Lytham and St Annes 3.5
Augusta 3.4
Royal Troon 3.2
Oakland Hills 3.0
Winged Foot 2.0
Olympic 1.6
Royal St. George 1.4

I was a bit surprised that Augusta did not rank higher given it is an invitational.  It is also time that the USGA return the US Open to Baltusrol and replace Bethpage in the New York area rota.

[Andrew Buck]

I was a bit surprised that Augusta did not rank higher given it is an invitational.  It is also time that the USGA return the US Open to Baltusrol and replace Bethpage in the New York area rota.

I would think from a Statistical perspective, Augusta simply represents a regression to the mean type scenario.  For example, Pebble Beach is 2nd on the list, however 50% of the major winners won only 1 major (McDowell, Wadtkins, Kite), but that is more than offset by Nicklaus, Woods and Watson.  The reality is, if they played 60 straight US Opens there, there is little chance that these three players (which represent 3 of the top 5 players during this time span) would win 50% of the competitions there.  It's more likely they would have won an amount similar to the combined 12 they won at Augusta.

The level of champions at Murfield is exceptional, however.

[David_Tepper]

Cliff -

With information/data like this, I would be very careful about confusing coincidence and causation. The sample sizes involved for many of these courses is rather small.

DT

[Cliff Hamm]

Andrew...welcome and excellent point...