Don, I think you're really on a roll lately, by starting some interesting threads. At least I've been enjoying them. So..
maybe one way of looking at your posit is that if there are 20,000 golf courses in this country, and each had 1000 niche golfers as members of the club, or regulars at a public course, all of whom meet the ideal definition of a regular golfer, then that would yield 20,000,000 regular golfers.
By regular golfers, that would be those that on average play once a week or more (perhaps up to 3-4X a week - what are the NGF numbers?). So, lets go the lowest and say 1X a week. Then average that half those 20,000 courses on average stay open 3/4 of a year on average. So, just call it 15,000 courses. Now, take 20,000,000 golfer x 52 rounds a year,isn''t that about 1,040,000,000 rounds a year. Lets say that is about $40 average cost of a round, factor private club dues and daily green fees, and that is 41,600,000,000 genrated in green fees. And, I suspect my average estimates are generally low and conservative to actual number of courses, average actual cost per round considering private dues and public daily green fees, etc.
So, pretty soon we are talking about some real money....
Now, if you add in the concept of winners and loosers, and who garners the most regular golfers, and who has a niche core of 1000 regular golfers, and pretty soon you gotta figure, there still must be some marketting opportunities for a smart savvy operator to use these new mass media reaching marketing tools of internet and digital media to prospect for a niche and grow the niche you have, even in a more remote locale.
They always say that any community should be able to support golf courses if the ratio is about 1 course for every 10,000 population.
So, if an operator is very sharp, and gets away from costly traditionsl advertising print and radio-TV marketing, and finds a way to utilize a mass e-mail list, and has a very easy to access and use website of the course facility that has great photo and video sizzle, maybe even entertains the viewer with some sort of interactive game or activity that is facility specific, and is a price leader who gives a good experience at a reasonable price, then the niche operator should be able to cultivate and flourish. Of course it boils down to if the investment was unrealistic to the market. How much did the facility cost to acquire and operate. If you go beyond the comfort or interest level of the niche customer, including exceed the concept of local expectation of good value, and you can't generate the often elusive ideal of exclusivity and become the choice of the haughty merely on price to enter and play within the niche, well there is only the 1-2% crowd that will buy into that, and way too many portential market that don't have those tolerances or values.
I don't know how many times when I used to contemplate developing a course that I didn't go through these mental gymnastics. And, because deep down, I didn't have the confidence that I truly knew what I was getting into on a practical level, from prior industry experence, I kept getting to the brink and never pulled the trigger. I always figured or conjured up an argument that said, too much risk to develope that niche, and too many broke start-ups that were reality checks. Hell, even my favorite Wild Horse has a bit of a price aversion reaction to locals at ~$40, and if you don't take advantage of the yearly membership, the cost is over many locals heads. I guess being risk adverse and very cautious is why I could never be the next Mike Kaiser, Ran Morrisett or Ben Cowan-Dewar, on soooo many levels!
However, I'd bet on you or a Joe Hancock type as gents far more likely to succeed as such due to both your vast experience. Oh yeah, and tic toc, the sound of the biological clock, is always there to haunt you...