Jerry,
I'd say you are spot on. The second shot plays significantly uphill, and even from the short distances from which the pros play their approach, the green and beyond cannot be seen. Even with those trees present, it is a tough shot to judge well. If nothing else, enough doubt creeps in to allow for either a slight mis-hit into the front bunker, or a well struck ball to the back of the green, leaving a slippery downhill putt.