If the current economic environment continues, will

[PThomas]

Paul

I know it is thirty years ago but might it be relevant what the levels of debt we were/are funding was/is  being spent on?  Would you like to contrast the two?  I have no clue what the pro-growth policies of this administration are but clearly with this man in the White House we have a giant regulator on our growth rate though the ratio of bueracrats in government telling business men and women how to run their business is at an all time high.
As for Reagan....some of the benefits (in addition to jobs and >GDP) were not realized for many years until we had what even President Clinton called "a peace dividend">
Also it might be advisable when talking about debt to use Debt/GDP as well as Deficit/GDP.  On those measures(and please advise me if you disagree) Reagan is not even close to Obama and i can only shudder to think what kind of "dividend" we will get from Obama in the future.

Corey - i am no means an economic expert ...but it seems quite hypocritical to me what Reagan blasted Carter about (and dont get me wrong, I dont think Carter did a good job) and then went and did...at least partly because I dont think anyone in his administration totally understood what Stockman was up to...including Stockman.....i think growing the economy is a lot easier when you let the deficit skyrocket

also, the gap between rich and the rest of us started increasing under Reagan and i  believe its at an all time high today

i still am waiting for someone to tell me how we can get more good paying jobs in this country if we dont get back to manufacturing...

[David_Tepper]

Paul Thomas -

This article ("Rustbelt recovery") from the March 12-18 issue of The Economist should hearten you:

http://www.economist.com/node/18332894

Some excerpts:

"For the first time in many years, American Manufacturing is doing better than the rest of the economy."
"In the past year American manufacturing employment has gone up by 189,000 , or 1.6%, the biggest gain since the late 1990s."

DT

[Michael Dugger]

Clever article, Shivas.

[Jud_T]

Not only did I not crave a glass-pack muffler previously, I didn't know what it was.  Now I simply MUST have one!

[corey miller]

Paul

Thankfully we now have  President who has not been a hypocrite like past Presidents and has done everything he said he would do on the campaign trail. 

I do know we have a new talking point rising income disparity which you seem to think is a function of a hollowing out of our manufacturing base so....What policy has this President embarked on that will help business/manufacturing to grow?

And how do you think our open borders immigration policy which certainly favors the unskilled, contributes to income equality?

David Tepper

Do you just forward your obviously very fortuitous clients links as part of your job or do you by chance offer your own thoughts?  Clearly all  on this board would benefit from your views.

[David_Tepper]

CEO outlook index hits a record high:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110330/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_roundtable

[Lou_Duran]

I do know we have a new talking point rising income disparity which you seem to think is a function of a hollowing out of our manufacturing base so....What policy has this President embarked on that will help business/manufacturing to grow?

And how do you think our open borders immigration policy which certainly favors the unskilled, contributes to income equality?

For those who might wish to explore beyond the convenience/self-satisfying/reinforcing of closely-held, life-long vaules offered by the 100-year old claim of the rich getting richer, have a look at "Income and Wealth" by Alan Reynolds.  There are any number of books by populist "third-way"/"progressive" economists, that seek to refute Reynolds, but I haven't seen anything compelling.

Regarding immigration, a well-known local (Texas) columnist often laments the quality of our schools as reflected in low test scores and graduation rates.  Serving a border state, he also opines occasionally on immigration issues and advocates a form of amnesty.  He is too smart not to get the connection, and I wonder what he will come up with when the requirements of our increasingly knowledge-based economy result in unacceptably high unemployment rates.  We live in a very interesting world.

BTW, the golf consumer continues to benefit.  One of our most famous courses which used to have a 10+ year waiting list is accepting new members immediately on application and the tendering of a check.  Another top course is waiving a high five-figure initiation fee with a one year agreement to pay monthly dues.  I am paying $35 per month for full use of practice facilities at three courses, and twilight golf (after 2:30) for a cart fee ($17-$19).  Two of the three courses are much better than any daily-fee I played in the L.A. area other than Rustic Canyon.        

[David_Tepper]

"The Rich Are Back, Luxury Spending Jumps........."

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/rich-back-luxury-spending-jumps-income-disparity-widens-20110415-094912-274.html%20?sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

[Jud_T]

Just a recap for all you gloom and doomers out there.  Since this thread was started, inflation adjusted returns on the following assets:

5 year Treasuries:  -1%

S&P 500:  +19%

Nasdaq: +28%

Good news for all those who stayed the course with a diversified portfolio.  Bad news for anyone who can't stand the thought of 4 more years of this administration....

[Patrick_Mucci]

David and Jud,

I guess wishful thinking trumps reality.

Ask any local businessman how great business is today.
I don't think you'll find enthusiastic responses of "incredible"

We're still in trouble.............and if the deficit continues to spiral, disaster won't be far behind.
Predictions by some are that 2014 will be the year of reconning.

We all want the economy to improve, but please, put down the megaphone and pom-poms that the news media have picked up in an effort to reelect their fair haired boy.

David,

From a golf perspective, the "rich" you allude to aren't returning to the clubs they resigned from.
"Caution" remains on everyone's mind.
Clubs still face the daunting task of finding and retaining members and reducing operating costs while providing a quality product.
That's a challenge that I think will remain with them for some time, perhaps a decade, perhaps forever.

But, if you and Jud want to continue "electioneering" that's your perogative.

[Jud_T]

Pat,

I'm not a fan of the vast majority of Obama's policies and realize that we're far from out of the woods.  Just wanted a little reality check for everyone who said I was nuts for saying one should hold a reasonable amount of equities in one's portfolio...

[David_Tepper]

Pat M. -

Please note, my last post on this thread was from a year ago!  

DT

[Howard Riefs]

To bring it back to golf...

NY Times shares what Tiger has in common with the stock market:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/01/your-money/stock-market-like-tiger-woods-is-out-of-the-rough.html?nl=your-money&emc=edit_my_20120402

[Patrick_Mucci]

Pat M. -

Please note, my last post on this thread was from a year ago!  

Sorry Dave, I missed that.

Hope all is well

[Kalen Braley]

I agree with Pat..

I guess wishful thinking trumps reality.

Here is a taste of actual reality. This graph shows net spending increase by president going back to Reagan.  The Republicans greatly increased spending, while the democrats kept it mostly level.  

[Kalen Braley]

Sorry Shivas, but you've recalled incorrectly on this one.

Democrats have controlled Congress for the entire Obama term...yet those lines are all trending down for his term.

And The republicans held Congress for all of George W. Bushes time 2000-2008 and they are all trending up.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0774721.html

[Steve Lang]

 

Congress / Leader of Senate / Leader of H of Rep.
92nd Congress (1971-1973)   Mike Mansfield (D-MT)      Carl Albert (D-OK)
93rd Congress (1973-1975)   Mike Mansfield (D-MT)      Carl Albert (D-OK)
94th Congress (1975-1977)   Mike Mansfield (D-MT)      Carl Albert (D-OK)
95th Congress (1977-1979)   Robert C. Byrd (D-WV)      Tip O'Neill (D-MA)
96th Congress (1979-1981)   Robert C. Byrd (D-WV)      Tip O'Neill (D-MA)
97th Congress (1981-1983)   Howard H. Baker, Jr. (R-TN)   Tip O'Neill (D-MA)
98th Congress (1983-1985)   Howard H. Baker, Jr. (R-TN)   Tip O'Neill (D-MA)
99th Congress (1985-1987)   Robert Dole (R-KS)      Tip O'Neill (D-MA)
100th Congress (1987-1989)   Robert C. Byrd (D-WV)      Jim Wright (D-TX)
101st Congress (1989-1991)   George J. Mitchell (D-ME)   Tom Foley (D-WA)
102nd Congress (1991-1993)   George J. Mitchell (D-ME)   Tom Foley (D-WA)
103rd Congress (1993-1995)   George J. Mitchell (D-ME)   Tom Foley (D-WA)
104th Congress (1995-1997)   Robert Dole (R-KS)      Tom Foley (D-WA)
105th Congress (1997-1999)   Trent Lott (R-MS)      Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
106th Congress (1999-2001)   Trent Lott (R-MS)      Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
107th Congress (2001-2003)   Thomas A. Daschle (D-SD)   Dennis Hastert (R-IL)  corrected per Tim's note below
108th Congress (2003-2005)   William H. Frist (R-TN)      Dennis Hastert (R-IL) corrected per Tim's note below
109th Congress (2005-2007)   William H. Frist (R-TN)      Dennis Hastert (R-IL) corrected per Tim's note below
110th Congress (2007-2009)   Harry M. Reid (D-NV)      Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
111th Congress (2009-2011)   Harry M. Reid (D-NV)      Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
112th Congress (2011-2013)   Harry M. Reid (D-NV)      John Boehner (R-OH)

[Steve Lang]

  ..there be an Occupy' Golf Movement Coming to A Municipal Park Near You?
 
I am a member of golf’s lower 99%. I am an indifferent golfer, and there’s no way, for sure, I could ever make it to the professional level. I will never put in the practice time to be the best. I will never have the shots, skills, or mental toughness to “make it” in the sport. I just never felt like working all that hard at it.

However, I am a part of the golfing community and, as such, feel I should be paid by the top 1% of golfers for what I do. It isn't fair that those players who have worked harder, have studied the game, have better equipment and are more skilled and dedicated should make all that BIG money. Where's my share? I’m a Victim!

I think the top 1% should pay for my club memberships and green fees and lessons, buy me new clubs, balls, clothes and shoes, and pay me some of their winnings. They can afford it. They are “The Rich.” The whole system should be changed to accommodate people like me. I think we should get together and occupy a golf course and demand that those who are better at what they do, pay for us who generally suck. Whining should get us something - maybe we'll make the cover of Time Magazine, garnish some public sympathy. Heck, during this election year we may even get a law or two passed by legislators who want our votes

[Tim Martin]

Congress / Leader of Senate / Leader of H of Rep.
92nd Congress (1971-1973)   Mike Mansfield (D-MT)      Carl Albert (D-OK)
93rd Congress (1973-1975)   Mike Mansfield (D-MT)      Carl Albert (D-OK)
94th Congress (1975-1977)   Mike Mansfield (D-MT)      Carl Albert (D-OK)
95th Congress (1977-1979)   Robert C. Byrd (D-WV)      Tip O'Neill (D-MA)
96th Congress (1979-1981)   Robert C. Byrd (D-WV)      Tip O'Neill (D-MA)
97th Congress (1981-1983)   Howard H. Baker, Jr. (R-TN)   Tip O'Neill (D-MA)
98th Congress (1983-1985)   Howard H. Baker, Jr. (R-TN)   Tip O'Neill (D-MA)
99th Congress (1985-1987)   Robert Dole (R-KS)      Tip O'Neill (D-MA)
100th Congress (1987-1989)   Robert C. Byrd (D-WV)      Jim Wright (D-TX)
101st Congress (1989-1991)   George J. Mitchell (D-ME)   Tom Foley (D-WA)
102nd Congress (1991-1993)   George J. Mitchell (D-ME)   Tom Foley (D-WA)
103rd Congress (1993-1995)   George J. Mitchell (D-ME)   Tom Foley (D-WA)
104th Congress (1995-1997)   Robert Dole (R-KS)      Tom Foley (D-WA)
105th Congress (1997-1999)   Trent Lott (R-MS)      Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
106th Congress (1999-2001)   Trent Lott (R-MS)      Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
107th Congress (2001-2003)   Thomas A. Daschle (D-SD)   Dennis Hastert (D-IL)
108th Congress (2003-2005)   William H. Frist (R-TN)      Dennis Hastert (D-IL)
109th Congress (2005-2007)   William H. Frist (R-TN)      Dennis Hastert (D-IL)
110th Congress (2007-2009)   Harry M. Reid (D-NV)      Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
111th Congress (2009-2011)   Harry M. Reid (D-NV)      Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
112th Congress (2011-2013)   Harry M. Reid (D-NV)      John Boehner (R-OH)

For the record Dennis Hastert is a Republican and as such the the House was controlled by Republicans from 2001 through 2007.

[Craig Van Egmond]

So Republicans controlled the Senate for roughly 16 out of the last 40/41 years and the House for 11 of the last 40/41 years?

Last time the Democrat controlled Senate passed a budget?  April 29th, 2009.. almost 3 years without a budget.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Sorry Shivas, but you've recalled incorrectly on this one.

Democrats have controlled Congress for the entire Obama term...yet those lines are all trending down for his term.

And The republicans held Congress for all of George W. Bushes time 2000-2008 and they are all trending up.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0774721.html


Kalen,

Just tell me some simple facts.

What was the national debt on inauguration day 2009, what is it today, and what will it be on inauguration day 2-13.