Thanks Tom for the reply and insight -- good thing I didn't try to paraphrase you; I would not have done justice.
Peter, thanks for reminding me where Tom's original thought came from -- your great thread and quote. I shared your quote with friends and they all loved it.
Scott, I think you are right. This is not the strongest of correlaters, but the exercise yields some interesting if not random observations.
When I think about it some of the necessary ingredients for high level success, they include:
skill, ability, motivation, inspiration, and opportunity
I would think the majority of outstanding architects did not have the opportunity (great piece of land combined with great owner/entrepreneur) on their first solo endeavor.
Also many outstanding architects did not have the requisite skill at the time of their first solo endeavor -- compare to a Phillips, Devries and Stranz who learned the trade for years as the apprentice to a master(s) before their first solo.
Lastly, to Scott's point, some of the examples I listed are of architects that may have received considerable secondary support from masters/those would prove to be masters -- see Crump/Colt, Wilson/Flynn. By extension was Maxwell's first solo after Crystal Downs (supporting MacKenzie) Prairie Dunes?