[Sven Nilsen]

I would be far more likely to target courses which interest me rather than randomly playing "the greats".

Sean, I'd be curious to hear what courses in the US interest you.

Jeepers Mac!  There are a lot I am interested in and others I am really interested in, but I will offer the ones I am seriously interested in.  O

...

Sean:

Have you seen Wild Horse?  Seems like it would be right up your alley.

Sven

[Paul_Turner]

Sean

Slightly downhill isn't "drop shot" in my book.  Hell I don't think the par 3s at your #4, St Enodoc, are clearly superior.

Unmemorable?









THE drop 11th

This ain't a drop shot.

[Garland Bayley]

Thanks Sean for your efforts.

Thought some might like to see the whole list. Maybe Sean can copy to an edit of the first post.

I'm thinking my first visit across the pond would be quite good if I were to make it a visit to Cornwall

1 Merion (East)
2 Ballybunion (Old)
3 St. Andrews (Old)
4 St. Enodoc (Church)
5 Prestwick
6 Royal St. George's
7 Lahinch (Old)
8 Kiawah Island (Ocean Course)
9 North Berwick (West)
10 Rye (Old)

Second 10

11 Enniscrone
12 Royal County Down (Championship)
13 Royal Cinque Ports
14 St. George's Hill (Red & Blue)
15 Old Town Club
16 The Island
17 Royal Aberdeen (Balgownie)
18 Royal Dornoch (Championship)
19 Royal Portrush (Dunluce)
20 Formby
Third 10

21 Swinley Forest
22 Portstewart
23 Muirfield
24 Royal Birkdale
25 Portmarnock (Old)
26 Sunningdale (New)
27 County Sligo
28 Woking
29 Woodhall Spa (Hotchkin)
30 Royal Liverpool 

Fourth 10

31 Little Aston
32 Burnham & Berrow (Championship)
33 Royal West Norfolk
34 Cruden Bay
35 Royal Porthcawl
36 The Addington
37 Princes
38 The Alwoodley
39 Yeamans Hall
40 Pinehurst (No. 2)
Fifth 10

41 Kington
42 University of Michigan
43 Tobacco Road
44 Turnberry (Ailsa)
45 Carnoustie (Championship)
46 Castle Course
47 Royal Troon (Old)
48 Royal Lytham & St. Annes
49 Carne
50 Beau Desert
Sixth 10

51 Saunton (East)
52 Notts
53 Northamptonshire County
54 Bulls Bay
55 Pennard
56 Hunstanton
57 Huntercombe
58 New Zealand
59 Worplesdon
60 St. Andrews (New)
Seventh 10

61 Southerndown
62 Wallasey
63 Camberley Heath
64 Brora
65 Silloth on Solway
66 Machrihanish
67 Tenby
68 Castletown
69 Aberdovey
70 Donegal
Eighth 10

71 Gullane (No.1)
72 Lakewood Shores (Gailes)
73 Cavendish
74 Pine Needles
75 Rolling Green Golf Club
76 Sherwood Forest
77 Prestbury
78 Nairn
79 Dunbar
80 Saunton (West)
Ninth 10

81 Stoneham
82 Bearwood Lakes
83 County Louth
84 European Club
85 Royal St. David's
86 West Lancashire
87 Tralee
88 Mid Pines Club
89 LuLu Country Club
90 Hillside   
Final 9

91 Royal North Devon
92 Trevose (Championship)
93 Southport & Ainsdale
94 PGA Catalunya
95 Merion (West)
96 Forest of Arden
97 The Belfry (Brabazon)
98 Grand Traverse (The Bear)
99 Nefyn & District

[Matthew Essig]

Sean:

If you are ever in that part of the world, I hope you will add Tumble Creek to your list of places to see.  I have a sense that it's held back by two groups:  the ones who think flashier bunkers are always better, and the ones who can't countenance seeing a house anywhere near a golf course.  Since you don't fall into either camp, I'd be curious if you think it's some of our better work or not.

Tom,

Is Tumble your most underrated design? When Renaissance Cup was there, the feedback from the attendees was unbelievably positive. I still maintain that there are a couple of holes there that rival you best holes anywhere.

Having played there a few times now, it is the most underrated TD course. I never hear anything about it on this site. The only hole that i think is not great is the par 5, 4th(?) because women struggle hitting up the massive hill. Plus the two public courses right next door are nice too.

[Sean Leary]

Matthew,

That is one of the holes I think is great. One of his best par 5's, IMO.

[jonathan_becker]

Three pages in and no one asks Arble about Merion?! 

Sean, when you get up in the morning it would be nice to see you comment about your #1 and why you feel it deserves your top spot.  Thanks for the list.

[jeffwarne]

Matthew,

That is one of the holes I think is great. One of his best par 5's, IMO.

guess you're not married

Actually, Matthew's description might make the course greater for some

[Sean_A]

Sean:

If you are ever in that part of the world, I hope you will add Tumble Creek to your list of places to see.  I have a sense that it's held back by two groups:  the ones who think flashier bunkers are always better, and the ones who can't countenance seeing a house anywhere near a golf course.  Since you don't fall into either camp, I'd be curious if you think it's some of our better work or not.

Tom

I don't know much about Tumble Creek though for some reason I thought it was highly regarded.  

The truth of the matter is that I am very unlikely to be bombing around the US playing golf.  With my parents at that sort of age sticking to Michigan is a high priority.  Mind you there are about 10 courses in Michigan that I would be happy to travel for so life is good.  

Sven

If I ever made it to the Sand Hills area (and it looks an increasingly attractive area not least because of its isolation) Wild Horse would be on my radar.  

Garland

You could do a lot worse than heading for Cornwall.  Its a truly under-rated area for golf and there are a ton of beautiful areas as well.  

Jonathon

Merion is a very cool course - nearly as perfect as they come.  A compact design that feels spacioius and offers some great interior views, easy to walk, peaceful environment despite being in the burbs, interesting greens without being obvious, doesn't beat you up with length, trees don't muck the place up, well drained good terrain, not a mediocre hole in the lot with superb variety.  In short, the course just feels right and proper.  The only complaint I could muster about the place is how the rough is allowed to maroon the bunkers.  This is a great shame aesthetically, but luckily it doesn't effect angles of play much at all.   I will be playing Ballybunion this summer - the course I reckon is in a dead heat with Merion. Maybe I will change my mind.  Then again, Lahinch isn't far off IMO and I have yet to see the changes by Hawtree...

Paul

Valley Links is undeniably pretty, but I am not buying the three drop shotters are good as group.  The other two are fine with the 6th being especially interesting because of the length, terrain and how narrow it plays.  I think it tandems very well with the fifth. 

Ciao

[Sean_A]

Thanks Sean for your efforts.

Thought some might like to see the whole list. Maybe Sean can copy to an edit of the first post.

I'm thinking my first visit across the pond would be quite good if I were to make it a visit to Cornwall

1 Merion (East)
2 Ballybunion (Old)
3 St. Andrews (Old)
4 St. Enodoc (Church)
5 Prestwick
6 Royal St. George's
7 Lahinch (Old)
8 Kiawah Island (Ocean Course)
9 North Berwick (West)
10 Rye (Old)

Second 10

11 Enniscrone
12 Royal County Down (Championship)
13 Royal Cinque Ports
14 St. George's Hill (Red & Blue)
15 Old Town Club
16 The Island
17 Royal Aberdeen (Balgownie)
18 Royal Dornoch (Championship)
19 Royal Portrush (Dunluce)
20 Formby
Third 10

21 Swinley Forest
22 Portstewart
23 Muirfield
24 Royal Birkdale
25 Portmarnock (Old)
26 Sunningdale (New)
27 County Sligo
28 Woking
29 Woodhall Spa (Hotchkin)
30 Royal Liverpool  

Fourth 10

31 Little Aston
32 Burnham & Berrow (Championship)
33 Royal West Norfolk
34 Cruden Bay
35 Royal Porthcawl
36 The Addington
37 Princes
38 The Alwoodley
39 Yeamans Hall
40 Pinehurst (No. 2)
Fifth 10

41 Kington
42 University of Michigan
43 Tobacco Road
44 Turnberry (Ailsa)
45 Carnoustie (Championship)
46 Castle Course
47 Royal Troon (Old)
48 Royal Lytham & St. Annes
49 Carne
50 Beau Desert
Sixth 10

51 Saunton (East)
52 Notts
53 Northamptonshire County
54 Bulls Bay
55 Pennard
56 Hunstanton
57 Huntercombe
58 New Zealand
59 Worplesdon
60 St. Andrews (New)
Seventh 10

61 Southerndown
62 Wallasey
63 Camberley Heath
64 Brora
65 Silloth on Solway
66 Machrihanish
67 Tenby
68 Castletown
69 Aberdovey
70 Donegal
Eighth 10

71 Gullane (No.1)
72 Lakewood Shores (Gailes)
73 Cavendish
74 Pine Needles
75 Rolling Green Golf Club
76 Sherwood Forest
77 Prestbury
78 Nairn
79 Dunbar
80 Saunton (West)
Ninth 10

81 Stoneham
82 Bearwood Lakes
83 County Louth
84 European Club
85 Royal St. David's
86 West Lancashire
87 Tralee
88 Mid Pines Club
89 LuLu Country Club
90 Hillside  
Final 9

91 Royal North Devon
92 Trevose (Championship)
93 Southport & Ainsdale
94 PGA Catalunya
95 Merion (West)
96 Forest of Arden
97 The Belfry (Brabazon)
98 Grand Traverse (The Bear)
99 Nefyn & District

Well, only two months later and my list has a few significant changes (on the surface anyway).  I purposely didn't rate Pennard as high as I thought it probably deserved because as a past member it is obvious I have a certain bias.  I was lucky enough to get down yesterday for a game, the first in a few years and enough time away to gain a fresh perspective.  While I can understand the claims of extreme golf here and there (often the wind causes the most problems), Pennard for me is only lacking in good conditioning to be considered a great course.  There isn't much I would advocate altering from an architectural perspective - the course is that good and ORIGINAL.  Bottom line, Pennard moves up to #34.  Anyway, Spangles will be happy.  Unfortunately for Jeff Warne, after my recent game at Saunton East I moved it up to #31 - its is a very, very good course with great variety.  I also cranked up Saunton West a load of places.  It too is very good, not quite as consistent as its big brother, but it has just as many very good holes.  

I also slotted Blackwell in at #65.  I desperately need to get back there.  Despite obvious issues, there is some great golf there.    

I added Sutton Coldfield in at #99 based on its winter course which I think is a better set-up than the summer course.  

Crail is in at #96, this was a mistaken omission.  I didn't realize LINKS listed the course.  Same for Turnberry Kintyre - in at #95 - I didn't realize LINKS listed it.

I had an interesting beginnings of a conversation with Brian yesterday concerning Porthcawl.  It would seem he, like many GCA.com folks in GB&I was less enthusiastic about the course than North American counterparts.  Do folks have any ideas for possible reasons this could be the case - if it is the case?

Ciao

[Jud_T]

Although it might not get much agreement here or elsewhere, you gotta love a list with the University of Michigan course above Turnberry.  My hunch is that once the course is fully restored it might even be accurate....

[Sean_A]

Jud

Turnberry is one of the most over-hyped courses on the planet, feeding off beauty like few other courses do. 

Tom Dunne

Out of curiosity, of what significance is the score?  For instance, is an 8 meant to be twice as good as a 4?  If there is no significance, why is the info given?

Ciao

[Tom Dunne]

Sean,

The significance of the score is to show relationships. #1 Cypress Point and #2 Pine Valley are within .1 of a point of each other, but the data indicates that there's some daylight between them and #3. Of course, it also shows that after the "super-courses", many courses are tightly bunched. A rank without a score would eliminate that context.

[Sean_A]

Tom

Okayyyy, so how much better is .1, .5, 1.0?  To me, this is an alien way to see a course so I genuinely don't understand the relationship of score-quality-ordinal ranking. 

Ciao

[Tom Dunne]

Sean,

This is the work of a collective in which each voter uses his or her own criteria in assigning rankings to courses, so whatever scores the statistical model spits out should only be interpreted in the most general sense.  

From the original feature:

"At the heart of the methodology is a tool known as logistic regression, or logit for short. In the LINKS100, every course on your ballot competes in head-to-head combat against every other course in the system, generating a Carl Saganesque number of data points. The logit takes that data—wins and losses—and spits out a number, or coefficient, for each course. That coefficient itself changes every time a course appears on a ballot—based on whether you have Pebble Beach, hypothetically speaking, ranked 1st, 10th, or 100th on your list. The bottom line: The bigger the difference between two coefficients, the higher probability that one course is truly better than another."  

Coefficients are converted into scores to create the rankings and to show these relationships. If CPC is a 9.2 and PV is a 9.1, that means there is a slight chance the former is "better" (broadly speaking) than the latter.

[Sean_A]

Tom

Okay, we are getting closer.  Using your example, how much of a chance of being better is .1, .5, or 1.0?  For instance, does .1 represent a 50.1 to 49.9 ratio?  Also, how large a gap is actually meaningful?  Is it .1, .5, 1.0...?   I think you can see what I am driving at.  3.4 is meaningless unless it is assigned a value.  In which case, either a value for each point must be set or it is pointless to offer scores because as is they are meaningless.  I mean, I can't tell how much the likelyhood of how much better CPC is over PV if I don't know the value of 9.2 and 9.1.  It could well be and I suspect it is the case here, that the .1 difference statistically is not enough to support any reasonable conclusions.  At what point can we do this?


Ciao

[Tom Dunne]

Sean,

No, it's more than that. Based on the difference between the two raw coefficient scores, CPC has a 52.5% chance of actually being "better*" than PV. That difference is probably within the margin of error, but our opinion is that readers don't want to see 1A and 1B. They want "gun to your head, which do your voters think is better?" I had a conversation about this stuff with one statistically-minded former GCAer who strongly believed we should include margin of error data throughout--I personally believe that would be TMI for the vast majority of users. We could readily produce the tiered system that some advocate, as well. Just a matter of making choices about how and how much information to provide.

*"Better" according to 135 panelists and +2600 users. Different groups can and do generate different results.

[Sean_A]

Thanks

So, what difference in score translates in

55%
65%
75%

Ciao

[Sean_A]

So 14 months later and my rankings have changed slightly.  The first ten is altered because of the new entry of SUNNINGDALE OLD to #6.  That means North Berwick drops out of the top 10.  The other major change is the swapping of Lahinch and Ballybunion.  Ballybunion now holds the 7th spot while Lahinch jumped from 7 to 2.  The other changes are just bump arounds because of Sunny Old. 

1 Merion (East)
 
2 Lahinch (Old)
 
3 St. Andrews (Old)
 
4 St. Enodoc (Church)
 
5 Prestwick
 
6 Sunningdale (Old)
 
7 Ballybunion (Old)
 
8 Royal St. George's
 
9 Rye (Old)
 
10 Kiawah Island (Ocean Course)


The second ten only changed because of NB dropping down.  The victim was Portrush, moving down to #21.


11 North Berwick (West)
 
12 Enniscrone
 
13 Royal County Down (Championship)
 
14 Royal Cinque Ports
 
15 St. George's Hill (Red & Blue)
 
16 Old Town Club
 
17 The Island
 
18 Formby
 
19 Royal Aberdeen (Balgownie)
 
20 Royal Dornoch (Championship)

The third ten had one major change; Woodhall Spa dropped from #29 down to 54. 

21 Portrush

22 Swinley Forest
 
23 Portstewart (Strand)
 
24 Muirfield
 
25 Royal Birkdale
 
26 Portmarnock (Old)
 
27 Sunningdale (New)
 
28 County Sligo
 
29 Woking
 
30 Royal Liverpool

More to follow

Ciao

[Thomas Dai]

Sean,

Most interesting.

Do you have any suggested courses for a 'best 9-holer' listing and if so in what order would you place them?

All the best

[Mark Chaplin]

Sean - did you play the better Sunningdale course or just the Old? I just cannot get my headaround 2 very I eventful and weak short par fours on the Old course.

[Peter Pallotta]

Thanks much for doing this, Sean - I must've missed it ealier, but it is really good to get the definitive "Arble Assessment" on paper.  You know I go just be photos and write ups (though when you do play Crystal Downs I'll be curious where you put it), but to me you are indeed fortunate when you can have courses like Notts, Worplesdon, Tenby, Cavendish, and Sherwood Forest in the 5th, 6th and 7th decimals!

Peter

[Sean_A]

Thomas - no particular insight into 9 holers.  

Chappers - I played both Old & New.  I do think the Old hangs together better despite what may be the worst hole on the property - #9.  

The 4th 10 had three major changes; Little Aston dropping from 31 to 45, Saunton East moving from 51 to 31 and Pennard jumping from 55 to 33.  I initially hung back with Pennard because of my obvious bias, but playing last year after some time away showed me the error of my ways.

    
30 Royal Liverpool
 
31 Saunton (East)
 
32 Burnham & Berrow (Championship)
 
33 Pennard
 
34 Royal West Norfolk
 
35 Cruden Bay
 
36 Royal Porthcawl
 
37 The Addington
 
38 Princes
 
39 The Alwoodley

40 Yeamans Hall Club

The 5th 10 has a new entry with Franklin Hills at #45.  Hunstanton moved up to 44 from 56 and Beau Desert moved a bit.

41 Pinehurst (No. 2)
 
42 Beau Desert
 
43 Kington
 
44 Hunstanton
 
45 Little Aston
 
46 Franklin Hills Country Club
 
47 Tobacco Road
 
48 Turnberry (Ailsa)
 
49 Carnoustie (Championship)
 
50 Castle Course

The 6th 10 really only had big change; Huntercombe dropping from 57 down to 72.  The club has some serious cutting line issues which needs sorting out!

51 Royal Troon (Old)
 
52 Royal Lytham & St. Annes
 
53 Carne
 
54 Woodhall Spa (Hotchkin)
 
55 Notts
 
56 Northamptonshire County
 
57 Bull's Bay
 
58 New Zealand Golf Club
 
59 Worplesdon
 
60 St. Andrews (New)

More to follow

Ciao

[Jud_T]

Sean,

Thanks for posting.  A pretty solid list.  Tobacco Road over Carnoustie? 

[Greg Taylor]

Sean,

Thanks for posting.  A pretty solid list.  Tobacco Road over Carnoustie? 

^ for me too - Carnoustie drifts in and out of traditional links and at times park land... the course doesn't have a thread which holds it all together. Tobacco Road is just awesome, "Pine Valley" on steroids or what ever the quote is... I agree anyway.

But:

"I added Sutton Coldfield in at #99 based on its winter course which I think is a better set-up than the summer course."

Having been a member there for ten years, I cannot understand that for the life of me... On what grounds? Because it breaks up the par 5's...? The summer 9th is a great hole, but the winter 9th is better.... sheesh... OK?! What logic please, Sean?

[Sean_A]

Jud - I am not really a fan of Carnoustie.  It does difficult well, but not much else.  

Greg - I will tell you the problems with Sutton Coldfield in the summer.  First, the rough is stupidly brutal and makes many holes unnecessarily narrow.  Its bad enough in the winter especially when one sees where the old fairway bunkers were.  The club should be ashamed to present that course as it does.  Second, the two best holes on the course (#s 7 & 14) aren't the best in summer as par 5s.  They play as great par 4s from shorter tees.  

No great changes for the 7th ten except for Saunton West pushing well up from #80 - wonderful course.  

61 Southerndown
 
62 Saunton (West)
 
63 Camberley Heath
 
64 Cavendish
 
65 Broadstone GC
 
66 Brora Golf Club
 
67 Silloth on Solway
 
68 Machrihanish
 
69 Tenby
 
70 Wallasey


8th ten: Uof M dropped nearly 30 spots based on my last play.  The mowing lines were shocking and any course Dr Mac was involved with relies heavily on these sorts of details to pull the design together; no great shakeups after this.

71 University of Michigan
 
72 Huntercombe
 
73 Liphook
 
74 Castletown
 
75 Aberdovey
 
76 Donegal
 
77 Gullane (No.1)
 
78 Lakewood Shores (Gailes)
 
79 Pine Needles Country Club
 
80 Rolling Green Golf Club

Ciao

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