Is The Golf Economy Back?

[David_Tepper]

Maybe!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-04/golf-s-25-billion-market-rides-economy-to-gain-on-woods-return.html

[Patrick_Mucci]

David,

We had the mildest winter in 50 years,  that I can remember, so i'd imagine that rounds would be up in the last few months.

Nothing I see, as of today, indicates that Clubs are in an improved position, financially.

In addition, clubs are making offers like never before.

Even Donald Trump had to offer extremely attractive terms (no initiation, dues only) to attract new members.

What will happen when the government stops printing and pumping money into the economy ?

[William_G]

no 

[Andy Stamm]

I didn't find that stats compelling. Golf rounds are only up 10% compared to the same months last year, and we just had the winter that never was? I personally played 200% more than I thought I would based on last year's weather.

The CA stat might be helpful. But CA should be a pretty big slice of the winter golf market so if it's up 16%, then the rest of the country is up less than 10%, perhaps by a couple of percentage points. And given the winter, a few percentage points increase doesn't (for me) support a conclusion of an improvement in the market.

[Dan Herrmann]

No - The U-6 unemployment rate is still 14.9%

[Tim Martin]

Not even close. The offers that Patrick makes reference to are everywhere. Some of the offers are coming from clubs that just 4 years ago had long waiting lists and hefty buy-ins. A handful of the clubs in my small state of Connecticut that are in trouble are real eye openers.

[Kris Shreiner]

I agree with the general read offered by most...we are still on the rocks. That said, the Winter was mild, the vibe at the PGA and GIS Show was upbeat and many folks are spending some money to improve their facilities. A strong year, with Mother Nature behaving well, would be most welcome.

The overdue culling will continue, and with some gradual improvement in the economic fortunes of the planet, it should slowly get a little better. The private golf model, the elite, upper-tier facilities excepted, is certainly undergoing some serious Jenny Craig adjustment.  It's just going to look a bit different out on the golf landscape in some segments going forward...but that's not a bad thing.

Cheers,
Kris

[Kirk Moon]

Could it be that the public market is bouncing back but the private market is not? 

[Anthony Butler]

Could it be that the public market is bouncing back but the private market is not? 

You mean like rents are skyrocketing in major metropolitan areas while housing prices are still down?

[Brett_Morrissy]

No - The U-6 unemployment rate is still 14.9%

Dan,
What is U-6 unemployment?

[Kirk Moon]

No - The U-6 unemployment rate is still 14.9%

Dan,
What is U-6 unemployment?

Definitions of the various categories and the current and recent past rates for each of these categories on the BLS web site:  

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm.

[Brad Isaacs]

No - The U-6 unemployment rate is still 14.9%

Dan,
What is U-6 unemployment?

Marginally employed and discouraged workers, ie those who gave up....

[Alex Miller]

Funny how golf also happened to peak when Baby-boomers were reaching later stages in their careers that allowed them to earn more with marginally more free time but also before they hit retirement and were unable to play.

Sure Tiger probably had a lot to do with driving up popularity, but maybe demographics are also shifting. Outside of just the economic aspects, golf may be slower to recover because there will be fewer able-bodied players with time enough to play? Sure the economy is a huge factor, and everything is tied together, but this probably shouldn't be ignored. It's for this reason that I would expect participation numbers to continue to decline in the foreseeable future as baby-boomers hang up the clubs faster than young people can replace them.

[Tom_Doak]

Funny how golf also happened to peak when Baby-boomers were reaching later stages in their careers that allowed them to earn more with marginally more free time but also before they hit retirement and were unable to play.

Sure Tiger probably had a lot to do with driving up popularity, but maybe demographics are also shifting. Outside of just the economic aspects, golf may be slower to recover because there will be fewer able-bodied players with time enough to play? Sure the economy is a huge factor, and everything is tied together, but this probably shouldn't be ignored. It's for this reason that I would expect participation numbers to continue to decline in the foreseeable future as baby-boomers hang up the clubs faster than young people can replace them.

Alex:

The theory among the golf gurus was always that play would INCREASE when the baby boomers retired and had more time to play.

No one ever considered the fact that the boom was fueled by Monopoly money.

[Dan Herrmann]

Exactly - tough to play if your retirement income is used up paying for the necessities.

Which is why I think less expensive public options are the key to regrowing the game.  That's where I learned, and they serve a critical need.