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John Kavanaugh

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What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« on: January 10, 2012, 10:36:22 AM »
Given some works of art sell in excess of $100 million, is there any reason to believe Pine Valley would be worth less?  Even just as a golf course would it be that difficult to sell 1200 memberships at $85,000 each.  Is $100 million too low?

Is Augusta National worth $1 billion?

Ross Harmon

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2012, 10:41:11 AM »
Since the only way to make a small fortune in golf is to start with a BIG fortune, it would definitely go for more than it could return as a business operation. I have to imagine that some east coast billionaire (Trump - could combine with his other operation in the area) would drop $100M+ on PV though.

Anyone know what the most expensive course ever sold (not built) went for? That would help establish the high water mark for what someone is willing to pay for someone else's course.

John Kavanaugh

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2012, 10:45:10 AM »
Since the only way to make a small fortune in golf is to start with a BIG fortune, it would definitely go for more than it could return as a business operation. I have to imagine that some east coast billionaire (Trump - could combine with his other operation in the area) would drop $100M+ on PV though.

Anyone know what the most expensive course ever sold (not built) went for? That would help establish the high water mark for what someone is willing to pay for someone else's course.

I thought Pebble sold for $900 million.

Michael Wharton-Palmer

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2012, 11:11:28 AM »
I would say that with all the revenues that the Masters does and could generate, that a 1 billion price tag would create a rush on suitors, should such an imaginary sale exist.
The numbers would be mind boggling to us all I tink if we knew what the overall monies genreated by that one event revealed.

Kirk Moon

Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2012, 11:41:20 AM »
I thought Pebble sold for $900 million.

Didn't that sale include all of the other assets owned by the Pebble Beach Company (or whatever it was called at the time) including Spyglass, Spanish Bay, the various lodge and dining facilities, etc?    

Jud_T

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2012, 11:57:33 AM »
$10k/acre + the NPV of the annual net profit from the club?
Golf is a game. We play it. Somewhere along the way we took the fun out of it and charged a premium to be punished.- - Ron Sirak

Jackson C

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2012, 01:53:44 PM »
$10k/acre + the NPV of the annual net profit from the club?

 :) I like it.  That is the classic way to look at it. 
And I would gather the sum of the equation could be zero, negative or simply the value of the land.

However, if the members are the owners, then it boils down to whether or not they feel their experience at the club is worth the $ they put into it - sum of initiation and dues.
"The secrets that golf reveals to the game's best are secrets those players must discover for themselves."
Christy O'Connor, Sr. (1998)

jeffwarne

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2012, 02:04:49 PM »
$10k/acre + the NPV of the annual net profit from the club?

 :) I like it.  That is the classic way to look at it.  
And I would gather the sum of the equation could be zero, negative or simply the value of the land


I' guessing you could get 1000 guys to join PV for a million each (if you didn't tell them there were going to be a 1000 members)
Because when you charge that, utilization goes up and they would all be from a nearby city
« Last Edit: January 10, 2012, 04:33:30 PM by jeffwarne »
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

Jud_T

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2012, 02:10:16 PM »
Jeff,


Clearly someone might pay significantly more than my #, but that's what I'd pay if they asked me for a bid, which they're not.
Golf is a game. We play it. Somewhere along the way we took the fun out of it and charged a premium to be punished.- - Ron Sirak

Mark Chaplin

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2012, 03:45:40 PM »
1000 people pay a $1m to join PV, I very much doubt it. Don't forget PV is very niche as the average rich golfer has never heard of the place.
Cave Nil Vino

jeffwarne

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #10 on: January 10, 2012, 03:54:58 PM »
1000 people pay a $1m to join PV, I very much doubt it. Don't forget PV is very niche as the average rich golfer has never heard of the place.

Really?
#1 rank in Golf magazines for 20 + years and the average rich golfer hasn't heard of the them?
You underestimate the rich (I'm not talking about the ones who inherited it ;))

Now as I said it's all stupidly hypothetical because people that paid that would use it frequently and it wouldn't work (and anyone smart and rich wouldn't join)
Again there might be 1000 that would but only 200 would allow the equation to work ,so let's say $200 million ;D

someone that wealthy writing a check for a million would be VERY interested in that #1 ranking. If it were #2 or higher, the fee would be 1/2 or 1/3 that
« Last Edit: January 10, 2012, 04:04:47 PM by jeffwarne »
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

Kalen Braley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2012, 04:08:10 PM »
Of course all the 1%'ers know about Pine Valley.

They learned about it when watching Donald Trump's show when he declared his nearby course is "better"  ;)

Tim Martin

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2012, 04:18:12 PM »
How long has the membership structure been as it is now?

jeffwarne

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #13 on: January 10, 2012, 04:25:53 PM »
Of course all the 1%'ers know about Pine Valley.

They learned about it when watching Donald Trump's show when he declared his nearby course is "better"  ;)

exactly
I think we're talking about the .01%ers though
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

Kalen Braley

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #14 on: January 10, 2012, 04:49:51 PM »
Of course all the 1%'ers know about Pine Valley.

They learned about it when watching Donald Trump's show when he declared his nearby course is "better"  ;)

exactly
I think we're talking about the .01%ers though

By definition thou,

Even a 1%'er still makes more than $1 million per year in income, with an average wealth much more than that.   ;)

jeffwarne

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #15 on: January 10, 2012, 05:01:57 PM »
Of course all the 1%'ers know about Pine Valley.

They learned about it when watching Donald Trump's show when he declared his nearby course is "better"  ;)

exactly
I think we're talking about the .01%ers though

By definition thou,

Even a 1%'er still makes more than $1 million per year in income, with an average wealth much more than that.   ;)


Does 1% of our population make over a million a year in income?
I don't think so

edit:
350000 filed returns over 1 million
that ain't 1%
« Last Edit: January 10, 2012, 05:08:39 PM by jeffwarne »
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

Mark Saltzman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #16 on: January 10, 2012, 05:11:03 PM »
According to an article I read last week, Canadian 1% is just over $400K.


Mike Nuzzo

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #17 on: January 10, 2012, 05:25:51 PM »
I'd think The Old Course would be worth quite a bit too
http://www.golfclubatlas.com/forum/index.php/topic,19087.0.html
Thinking of Bob, Rihc, Bill, George, Neil, Dr. Childs, & Tiger.

Kalen Braley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #18 on: January 10, 2012, 05:31:36 PM »
Of course all the 1%'ers know about Pine Valley.

They learned about it when watching Donald Trump's show when he declared his nearby course is "better"  ;)

exactly
I think we're talking about the .01%ers though

By definition thou,

Even a 1%'er still makes more than $1 million per year in income, with an average wealth much more than that.   ;)


Does 1% of our population make over a million a year in income?
I don't think so

edit:
350000 filed returns over 1 million
that ain't 1%

The 1% refers to those in the work force, not total population.

Not sure where you got that number from though...

The IRS shows nearly 1.4 million people filed as top 1%ers as recent as 2009.

http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/250.html

Scroll down to Chart 2 in this link.


jeffwarne

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #19 on: January 10, 2012, 05:53:32 PM »
Of course all the 1%'ers know about Pine Valley.

They learned about it when watching Donald Trump's show when he declared his nearby course is "better"  ;)

exactly
I think we're talking about the .01%ers though

By definition thou,

Even a 1%'er still makes more than $1 million per year in income, with an average wealth much more than that.   ;)


Does 1% of our population make over a million a year in income?
I don't think so

edit:
350000 filed returns over 1 million
that ain't 1%

The 1% refers to those in the work force, not total population.

Not sure where you got that number from though...

The IRS shows nearly 1.4 million people filed as top 1%ers as recent as 2009.

http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/250.html

Scroll down to Chart 2 in this link.



Kalen,

Your chart gave me a headache ;)

Google "% of Americans who make over 1 million in income annually"
you'll find that # is much less than 1% of the income tax filers.
and rememer not all work force has to file (if you don't owe, you don't have to file-most do)

In fact one stat stated that $380000 would get you in the 1%

although if I'm right, it's going to be a lot harder to sell PV memberships at one million each ;D
« Last Edit: January 10, 2012, 08:47:27 PM by jeffwarne »
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

Kalen Braley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #20 on: January 10, 2012, 06:00:48 PM »
Jeff,

You are actually correct, and I think the confusion was caused by the varying points we were trying to make.

While its true that one only needs to make ~$380k per year to qualify as a 1%er...

..what I was trying to state is that the actual average income a 1%er makes is indeed north of 1 Mill.  But obviously there is a lot of variance in this class and I would guess even the median 1%er doesn't top $1 mill in income per year.

So we were both right for our respective points.

jeffwarne

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #21 on: January 10, 2012, 06:17:58 PM »
Jeff,

You are actually correct, and I think the confusion was caused by the varying points we were trying to make.

While its true that one only needs to make ~$380k per year to qualify as a 1%er...

..what I was trying to state is that the actual average income a 1%er makes is indeed north of 1 Mill.  But obviously there is a lot of variance in this class and I would guess even the median 1%er doesn't top $1 mill in income per year.

So we were both right for our respective points.

The median definitely wouldn't be 1 million-it's the guys making 100 million that skew the average to over a million.


and that my friend is why people are so upset when Presidents wants to attack those making(showing) $250,000 a year, who already pay more in taxes, ,paying their own health insurance (and everybody elses)  etc. etc , yet have good enough credit to borrow, so their kids pay full boat for college, while their next door neighbor kid goes for free ::) because they show less/little...but I digress
there is a big gap between a person living in San Francisco, or Long Island or NYC making 250 k, (and believe it or not just breaking even,) and the group that  brings the AVERAGE 1%ers income over 1 million

« Last Edit: January 10, 2012, 06:41:30 PM by jeffwarne »
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

Jud_T

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #22 on: January 10, 2012, 07:07:26 PM »
Occupy Pine Valley!  :-\
Golf is a game. We play it. Somewhere along the way we took the fun out of it and charged a premium to be punished.- - Ron Sirak

Ronald Montesano

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #23 on: January 10, 2012, 07:34:28 PM »
Is this a game of tag? Mucci does a PV, Jaka does a PV...and on and on and on.

Good thing we're discussing new courses in 2012.
Coming in 2024
~Elmira Country Club
~Soaring Eagles
~Bonavista
~Indian Hills
~Maybe some more!!

John Kavanaugh

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Re: What is the market value of Pine Valley?
« Reply #24 on: January 10, 2012, 07:46:24 PM »
I hope you understand that 1000 people paying $1 million each equals $1 billion. Finding 1000 people to pay $100,000 is much more likely.

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