I like Christian's basic take of "not likely to make triple on the 1st hole." It would also go for 10 with double starts.
I would tend to put the good birdie chance somewhere between 12-15 rather than 16 or 17, which is too late to "start a comeback." Hey, ANGC is a good example of a couple of holes earlier in the back nine having an effect on exciting matches.
Again, due to double starts and nine hole rounds, I would think a hole from 4-6 should also be an easy one and in my mind's eye, usually design with relatively easy holes at 1, 5, 10, and 15 as a goal, but I am flexible as a yoga instructor on this point. In general, making each hole the best and most interesting it can be via routing and features ON ITS OWN yields the best course.
It also depends a lot on where the hard holes will fall as determined by routing and natural features. I don't mind a hard following an easy or vice versa, but actually think the rythm of a course is better with medium difficulty holes interspersed. Easy after hard usually works better than hard after easy. No sense pumping them up and then stomping them down with a give back the stroke hole!