[Randy Thompson]

Since we now know the eight finalists, I thought the continual debate of who is going to win should have a separate new thread. I think Tom has an advantage, yes everyone has their shapers and supervisors but the bigger firms have supervisors that supervise an outside contractor and I see Tomīs crewīs as more in house contractors, which is what seems to work best in South America. He has shown in the past that he can still deliver quality products to foreign market by setting up these in house construction crews. I have been here over twenty years now and during that time frame I would guess there have been well over 100 courses built in the Southern cone of South America and out of that 100, around five have had general contactorīs, three in Chile and two in Argentina and none in Brazil. Nicklaus has a general contractor in Argentina but that surely will increases the overall cost of the finished project and as stated previously in some of the threads it doesnīt make sense to create a course over the five million dollar mark. I think the idea of the present stage as a competition will also favor Tomīs team. When it comes to lobbying and internal political connections, there are three strong groups, Nicklaus, RJT II and once again, Tom. I stated months ago in another thread, I have faith they will come to the correct conclusions and contract the highest qualified firm, that will produce the best course at a reasonable price. I still stand by that but it will be a very close vote and a tough battle. We donīt actually know of all the committees involved but the knife will have to put into the hands of one particular group to cut the cake and it seems to me that knife will go to the group that puts up the money (also stated on other threads six months ago) and I have a good idea of where that will be coming from and therefore my optimistic conclusions. So as of today, this is how I see the individual firms chances.
T.D.  2-1
Jack Nicklaus 3-1
Robert Trent Jones Jr. 4-1
Greg Norman 6-1
Gary Player 10-1
Martin Hawtree 10-1
Gil Hanse 15-1
Peter Thomson/Ross Perrett 30-1

[Peter Pallotta]

Randy - thanks for that most interesting and informative (and informed) post.  There are so many aspects of the process that you mention (either directly or obliquely) that I haven't thought of or didn't know -- a lot of 'inside baseball' in other words. When I read your post a second time, I realized that the best thing I could do is not to bet at all!!

Peter 

[Lou_Duran]

I stated months ago in another thread, I have faith they will come to the correct conclusions and contract the highest qualified firm, that will produce the best course at a reasonable price. I still stand by that but it will be a very close vote and a tough battle. We donīt actually know of all the committees involved but the knife will have to put into the hands of one particular group to cut the cake and it seems to me that knife will go to the group that puts up the money (also stated on other threads six months ago) and I have a good idea of where that will be coming from and therefore my optimistic conclusions.

With nil inside knowledge, I should know better than to question the thoughtful analysis of one so close to the action.  But I don't want to do what's pressing, so I'll procrastinate.

On the first- producing the best course- Tom Doak has designed several great courses for people who like the type of golf we do on this site.  But for whom is the Olympic course being built?  A world-class plus 6-8 handicap?  Or a gca afficionado needing double digit strokes in a match with an ordinary  scratch?  I would be delighted if Tom was awarded the commission, but I suspect that "producing the best course" is at the crux of the decision, and we may wish to examine the various candidates' portfolios to inform on which type of courses the committee may be looking for and be most impressed with.

On the second- a reasonable price- I understand that the Olympics will cost around $15 Billion, and that Brazil is spending another $50 Billion or so in infrastructure to handle it and other major sporting events.  While one may argue that considering these sobering outlays, the Brazilian government will be looking for economic efficiencies- yeah, like there is a long history of ANY government frugality and stewardship when it comes to spending- a few million here and there is but a rounding error ($1 Million = .0067%).

Two beers to my one that the design won't come from an American-led firm?     

[Jay Flemma]

Interesting! 

[Mike Benham]

Did Pele' win the bid to design the soccer pitch?

[Randy Thompson]

Lou,
Neither one of us should be drinking beer but I have another idea. In early June my son will be graduating from high school in the DFW area so I should be there with my wife. I would love for you to meet her and I would love to meet your wife. So lets meet and have dinner and maybe we could meet at the fitting resturant, Texas da Brazi! I will take the American firms, four and give the rest of the world, four! The loser picks up the tab!

[Lou_Duran]

Lou,
Neither one of us should be drinking beer but I have another idea.

RT,

I'm afraid that I'm losing that battle.  As to your proposal, I'd be delighted to have dinner.  However, to better reflect the odds, let's go with your venue if I win, and Garcia's if you do.  Nothing would please me more if the good folks in Brazil would disregard pollitics and picked the best candidate.

[Jud_T]

I've been taking Tom and Gil and 3-1 from some of our more adventurous brethren.  After Randy's comments, I feel even more confident in this side of it...

[Randy Thompson]

Lou,
Neither one of us should be drinking beer but I have another idea.

RT,

I'm afraid that I'm losing that battle.  As to your proposal, I'd be delighted to have dinner.  However, to better reflect the odds, let's go with your venue if I win, and Garcia's if you do.  Nothing would please me more if the good folks in Brazil would disregard pollitics and picked the best candidate.

Done!

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