Demographics for Golf Course Architects

[Tom_Doak]

In the past week, I've read a couple of things which hinge on demographics.  The most recent was a piece by Atul Gawande in THE NEW YORKER, "Personal Best," where he wonders whether he has peaked as a surgeon after age 45.

It was demographics, of course, that helped get us into our current state in golf course architecture -- the demographics of the baby boomers buying new golf course frontage homes or second homes, and the expectation that retiring baby boomers would play even more golf in the years ahead, implying a need for new golf courses.  Of course, nobody thought to wonder what the consequences would be if the Boomers had borrowed to finance those homes, so that after the market for homes peaked and began to crash, they wouldn't have much money left to afford golf club memberships! 

Anyway, Dr. Gawande's question made me wonder, at what age do golf course architects peak in their careers?  Is it when they're young and idealistic and they have more time to devote to being in the field?  Is it when they're older and wiser and more experienced, or does success dilute their time involvement on any individual project?  We all would like to believe we're still learning and getting better as we go, but does anybody really believe that 80-year-old architects like Pete Dye or even 70-year-olds like Jack Nicklaus are just now producing their best work ever?

So, when do golf course architects' careers peak?  I don't want idle speculation here -- just the facts, individual examples.  How old was MacKenzie or Macdonald or Tillinghast or Flynn or Pete Dye or Trent Jones or Hugh Wilson when they did their best work?  Of course, there is some speculation involved here -- you have to decide when the architect in question was actually doing his best work, and that's a somewhat subjective question.  [Hey, if it wasn't, I wouldn't need to ask for your help.] 

This can never be a perfect study, of course, because CLIENTS and OPPORTUNITY play such an important role in enabling an architect to reach his peak.  Maybe I would have peaked at 22; but we'll never know, since nobody would hire me back then!  Plus, the expectations of those clients start changing, and sometimes interfere with an architect's creative energy.  [I know that Pete Dye seemed pretty bothered after building the TPC at Sawgrass, when every other client wanted their own island green.]

Last, but not least, it was hard for any architect to peak in 1943, no matter how old they were at the time.  That's the other book I just finished about demographics -- Harry Dent's "The Great Crash Ahead".  It's a sobering read for those of us in the growth end of the golf business, but we'll put off that topic for another day, when we don't have anything to do.  According to Mr. Dent, that could be pretty soon ... and unfortunately, it's hard to argue with his logic.

[Adrian_Stiff]

Tom I feel that I keep learning so am capable of better work than I have already done but much depends on the site and I cant be arsed to travel much so I suspect at 51 I have peaked. You are probably the best person to answer your own question since you still have plenty of projects. Do you feel your best work is behind you? At 30 Do you think you would have made significant mistakes?

[Tom_Doak]

Tom I feel that I keep learning so am capable of better work than I have already done but much depends on the site and I cant be arsed to travel much so I suspect at 51 I have peaked. You are probably the best person to answer your own question since you still have plenty of projects. Do you feel your best work is behind you? At 30 Do you think you would have made significant mistakes?

Adrian:

I had a great response for you all typed up and ready to go, but realized that if I posted it, I would kill my own thread.    So, I'm going to save it for a day or two instead, and see what others say.

Note that this should be an historical exercise [i.e., Dr. MacKenzie's career peak was clearly in 1926-27, when he worked in Australia and started Cypress Point, when he was 57 years old], and not just a subjective one.  So for myself, you won't really know if I've peaked or not until after I stop building courses, which, hopefully, is not anytime soon.

[Mike_Young]

TD,
I like the way the book Outliers deals with this type of subject. I think being born at the proper time is the most critical element.   I do think client and opportunity have a huge impact on when one does his best work and I would assume you are placing good site under opportunity.  If one is acquiring the right client, opportunity etc due to playing ability he might acquire these clients much earlier than someone who has been trying to acquire these same elements through his own work over the years.  But I think the most critical elements in doing one's best work after having the ability to acquire the client and the opportunity are  time and internal shaping.  I think the more time the architect spends on a project them better it turns out.  And when I say internal shaping I mean using one's own people instead of outsiders who have to get used to what you want on the ground.  

[Tom_Doak]

TD,
I like the way the book Outliers deals with this type of subject. I think being born at the proper time is the most critical element.   I do think client and opportunity have a huge impact on when one does his best work and I would assume you are placing good site under opportunity.  If one is acquiring the right client, opportunity etc due to playing ability he might acquire these clients much earlier than someone who has been trying to acquire these same elements through his own work over the years.  But I think the most critical elements in doing one's best work after having the ability to acquire the client and the opportunity are  time and internal shaping.  I think the more time the architect spends on a project them better it turns out.  And when I say internal shaping I mean using one's own people instead of outsiders who have to get used to what you want on the ground.  

Well, there you go again, ruining the suspense.

Here's the response to Adrian's question that I just cut:


Personally, I don't think I make better design decisions now than I did when I was thirty.  Faster, maybe, but not better.

However, a lot of what I get credit for are things that are actually the result of putting together a team of good guys over the last twenty years, and getting them up to the level that they make our work better.  So, though I don't think I am any better, I think WE are certainly better than I used to be -- and the way things work in the design business, I get most of the credit for that.

[Randy Thompson]

I think it depends on the individual but itīs not at a young age, you have to be a jack of all trades and where many hats, so you keep growing in your weak areas and even in your strong ones too. As you very well know also itīs about forming teams and being able to keep their loyalty. I doubt Fazio could ever produce what you produce in a foreign country because his comfort zone is with his teams and close to home. There is a course in Panama that reinforces what I am saying that he did with Uncle George and is very very inferior of what he produces in the USA. Granted clients carry weight in the overall formula and the overall results. I just spent all week training a backhoe guy to do our first ripped or jagged edge bunkers. If and when I decide to this again I will be in the field training another new one and so on. One of the things from my outside view that you have done right is spend the time training more then just your shapers, other important crew members also and then being able to sell the complete package to the client. This allows you delegate more and more and take on more than two projects a year without jepordizing quality. You also keep them happy and therfore obtain there loyalty. I would guess Ross and the Doctor and a few others came down a similar road, if not, I have no idea how and the hell they produced the number of fine golfing experiences that they did throughout such a short time frame. The art is not so much in architecture but ones ability to D&D, delegate and disappear!

[Tom_Doak]

Mike:

Malcolm Gladwell would present the following list:

Harry Colt - born 1869
Alister MacKenzie - born 1870
James Braid - 1870
George Crump - 1871
Donald Ross - 1872
George Thomas - 1873

All of them were just turning 50 when the first war ended and the Golden Age hit full stride.

Incidentally, the one surprise I had was to learn that William Flynn was born in 1890!  That made him 19 years old when he laid out his first course in Vermont, just 21 when he was helping to build Merion and serving as its first superintendent, and in his mid-30's when he designed all those courses around Philly.

[Peter Pallotta]

Tom - this is an interesting topic for me, but not for the reasons I think you intended. These kind of "narratives" are very important to people, these records of our personal histories, these stories we tell ourselves about ourselves. They are, nonetheless, artificial constructs.  They are, perhaps, no less meaningful for that, and at any rate their objective truth or falsehood are of secondary important to their subjective resonance. But in terms of your question, there is no objective way I don't think to determine even something as simple as whether an architect's best work on the ground was the best he could accomplish. You and Mike mention clients and opportunities and teams, but you don't mention, for example, CONNECTIONS -- and those usually take many years to make.  Your narrative - or mine, or Mike's or anyone's -- might tell us that our opportunities came "at just the right time", and that's a healthy attitude.  But we won't ever know what connections earlier on would've meant. Apologies - all speculation and no concrete/historical facts.  I just can't accept the premise of the question.  

Peter

[Mike_Young]

Mike:

Malcolm Gladwell would present the following list:

Harry Colt - born 1869
Alister MacKenzie - born 1870
James Braid - 1870
George Crump - 1871
Donald Ross - 1872
George Thomas - 1873

All of them were just turning 50 when the first war ended and the Golden Age hit full stride.

Incidentally, the one surprise I had was to learn that William Flynn was born in 1890!  That made him 19 years old when he laid out his first course in Vermont, just 21 when he was helping to build Merion and serving as its first superintendent, and in his mid-30's when he designed all those courses around Philly.

Interesting.  That' even a tighter pattern than the Carnegie group or the Gates group if I recall.

[Mike_Young]

Tom - this is an interesting topic for me, but not for the reasons I think you intended. These kind of "narratives" are very important to people, these records of our personal histories, these stories we tell ourselves about ourselves. They are, nonetheless, artificial constructs.  They are, perhaps, no less meaningful for that, and at any rate their objective truth or falsehood are of secondary important to their subjective resonance. But in terms of your question, there is no objective way I don't think to determine even something as simple as whether an architect's best work on the ground was the best he could accomplish. You and Mike mention clients and opportunities and teams, but you don't mention, for example, CONNECTIONS -- and those usually take many years to make.  Your narrative - or mine, or Mike's or anyone's -- might tell us that our opportunities came "at just the right time", and that's a healthy attitude.  But we won't ever know what connections earlier on would've meant. Apologies - all speculation and no concrete/historical facts.  I just can't accept the premise of the question.  

Peter

FATE

[Melvyn Morrow]

The demographics of Golf Course Architects, or should that be loosely translated in modern terms to means building courses on site unfit for Golf, designing courses to fit between real-estate plots thus forcing a non-walking policy. Not forgetting the development of courses that require careful design not for the good of the game but to accommodate carts paths sympathetically to ease the burden on the non-walking player. Then we have the inventors of the island Green and the super shallow bunkers with compacted sand, can we really call these people Golf Course Architects?   

The demographics of Golf Course Architects, yes those who happily do the bidding of their Clients even when they themselves may have serious reservations as to the real architectural merit of the potential course.

Who are the casualties of our times, the architects, clients or golf courses specifically intended for golfers? I fear the latter point wins.

Melvyn

[Ian Andrew]

Tom,

Your birthday certainly opens up more opportunity, but I'm kind of with Peter that connections matter just as much.

Many were from the right circles (Thomas, Colt, Rees and Bobby Jones)
Others hung around them (Thompson and Tillinghast).
Others have cultivated a circle of friends and associates they use to help find projects and help get their name out there
Others benefitted from that one key critical figure who made their career go (Raynor).

[Randy Thompson]

Tom,

Your birthday certainly opens up more opportunity, but I'm kind of with Peter that connections matter just as much.

Many were from the right circles (Thomas, Colt, Rees and Bobby Jones)
Others hung around them (Thompson and Tillinghast).
Others have cultivated a circle of friends and associates they use to help find projects and help get their name out there
Others benefitted from that one key critical figure who made their career go (Raynor).

You can have connections but if you donīt have the team you wonīt produce the results! You can have the team but if you donīt have the connections, you wonīt have a chance to produce any results! Sounds to me like you need both!

[Mike_Young]

Tom,

Your birthday certainly opens up more opportunity, but I'm kind of with Peter that connections matter just as much.

Many were from the right circles (Thomas, Colt, Rees and Bobby Jones)
Others hung around them (Thompson and Tillinghast).
Others have cultivated a circle of friends and associates they use to help find projects and help get their name out there
Others benefitted from that one key critical figure who made their career go (Raynor).

Yale

[Tom_Doak]

Melvyn:  Did it rain over there today and keep you off the links?

Peter (and Ian):  You are UNDOUBTEDLY right that "Connections" have a huge impact on the commercial success of any golf course architect.  I didn't understand that at all when I was starting; it was only after I'd done my first five courses, and realized that all five jobs were the result of connections I had made when I was traveling the world at the ages of 20-22, that I realized I'd stumbled into an important leg up on the competition.

Most people believe that Tom Fazio was made by the success of Wild Dunes, or Rees Jones by the success of Atlantic, but that's not true at all, as evidenced by the rankings of those courses today [i.e., NOT].  It was simply a matter of their coming of age with all the right connections.  They were born into the business and into the connections; all they had to do was bide their time and wait for the next boom, and be careful not to screw it up by building conservative courses that would threaten their future supremacy.

But, I wasn't talking about commercial success at the start of this thread.  I was trying to get at creative success.  There are certainly tons of guys who have it, but never succeed, because of poor timing or lack of Connections.  But connections don't assure creative success.

P.S. to Ian:  The LAST thing I was thinking was that my last birthday was a peak, I am just wondering if I still have better times ahead.  I was most fortunate to be in position to ramp up to success a few years back, even though I was still young by the standards of the business.  As the great Chuck Prince said it, you've got to dance while the music is playing.

[Mike_Young]

Tom,

Your birthday certainly opens up more opportunity, but I'm kind of with Peter that connections matter just as much.

Many were from the right circles (Thomas, Colt, Rees and Bobby Jones)
Others hung around them (Thompson and Tillinghast).
Others have cultivated a circle of friends and associates they use to help find projects and help get their name out there
Others benefitted from that one key critical figure who made their career go (Raynor).

Ian,
I think geographical location at the time had a lot to do with the connection angle.  For example.  As much as I hate it....How many world renown or signature architects have ever come out of the South.  Or in the case of professional golfers that live in the South , how many had southern courses define them?

[Ben Sims]

The question to me isn't whether work necessarily peaks.  To me it is once a peak or monumental achievement has occured, did the quality or concepts in that monumental work become a hallmark of that architect?

One more thing, does an architect's work become better as his ideas are passed and honed to a continually maturing group of proteges?   

[Ulrich Mayring]

Creativity means getting new ideas, doing things that weren't done before. It involves thinking outside the box, because "inside the box" is everything that has been done before. The older a human brain is, the more difficult it becomes to make new connections. On the other hand, while a baby's brain can easily make new connections, there are practical limits to its creativity, because the brain at that point doesn't have enough existing connections. It is quite obvious that you need to know what's "inside the box" before you can start thinking about what's outside of it.

So, the magic formula is "old enough to know, young enough to change", which statistically translates to 20-25 years of age. Note that statistics never apply to single individuals. In fact they are quite useless as a guide for personal development.

But what about the many golf course architects, who did their best work when they were old? Well, statistically their number is insignificant compared to the many creative people, who did their best work when they were young.

Ulrich

[David_Tepper]

Tom Doak -

1) I would take the theories & prophesies of Harry Dent with a very large grain of salt. Like a of lot of sages & gurus, he is much more inclined to remind you of his correct predictions rather than his more numerous mistaken ones.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052702303392404576566841665679146.html

2) In case you are not aware, our very own Mr. Spode, "he of the impeccable golfing pedigree," does not actually play golf.

3) I believe it was Charles Prince, former CEO of Citicorp, who made, to the enormous and continuing regret of Citicorp's shareholders, the comment about "dancing as long as the music is playing." Jamie Dimon & JP Morgan/Chase had sense enough to leave the party while the band was still playing.

DT

[Tom_Doak]

DT:

Thanks for your note.  I'll correct the origin of my quote.  But since Chuck Prince is now retired, I'll stick with Jamie D. as public enemy #1.

[David_Tepper]

Tom D. -

FYI, "Prince Finally Explains His Dancing Comment": http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/04/08/prince-finally-explains-his-dancing-comment/

DT

[Mike_Young]

The question to me isn't whether work necessarily peaks.  To me it is once a peak or monumental achievement has occured, did the quality or concepts in that monumental work become a hallmark of that architect?

One more thing, does an architect's work become better as his ideas are passed and honed to a continually maturing group of proteges?   

Ben,
I think one of the key issues for passing on ideas to proteges is having enough work to have proteges.  Much of the work that is considered an architect's best work is difficult for a beginning golfer to play.  And it is especially difficult for one to use as a ground for learning the game.  Sure there is some work around the world and yep there will definitely be golfers in China and other Asian countries but will they stick with the game and develop?  And if they do how long will it take to obtain a critical mass that can justify the game and not the RE development in that country. 
In terms you would comprehend:  How many pilots could stay with it if they learned to fly in a Bonanza instead of a Cessna 150?  Same goes for golf.  Those countries are going to have a lot of 6 hour rounds.  So anyway, I trying to say that some of this golf boom in other countries may be short lived.  And in this country it is just not there.  So I don't see proteges in the future in this business.  I don't even know how many guys will actually be able to ay they make their ENTIRE living at golf design in two years. 

[Adam Clayman]

I'm beginning to wonder if the notion of peaking, or, what is considered the best
 Design, isn't different from architect to player, to student, to geek.

In other words, does Tom Doak think his best designs are where he took a sheit site and made a
Terrific course, or is His best designs the ones that may not have required all that much "hard work" but where the players enjoy themselves the most?

In the end, the thoughtfulness put into the designs are where I see the difference between architects, all other things being equal.

[Rick Shefchik]

The architects mentioned who were born around 1870 might have peaked at different ages, but all of the ones still alive in 1930 were essentially finished. The Great Depression and World War II made it impossible for anyone to advance their craft. We could very well be entering, or have already entered, a similar period in golf history in which outside circumstances curtail the potential of a generation of architects. Such quirks of fate seem to me to have far more to do with an architect's career arc than his or her age.

[Ian Andrew]

But what about the many golf course architects, who did their best work when they were old? Well, statistically their number is insignificant compared to the many creative people, who did their best work when they were young.

I think you better check your facts on that one. I would say the opposite is true. Look at the ages of many of the greatest and most didn't build till later in life largely because for many this was a second career.