What I take from 2008 was AIG's blindness in insuring all of these bad loans. They were responsible for putting this thing in a tailspin, and really, the only company that could not fail, if they couldn't pay out, they would have taken town every financial institution all for the prospect of making billions in fees thinking, there was no way the real estate market would turn.
I just don't see China's economy suffering the same fate. Like it or not, their communist government can actually make/change laws over night. And for the past few years they have been tweaking their laws, and regulating the way people can buy homes, how much money they have to put down, and at the end of the day, there is actually real money going into all this new construction. 90% of a new apartment complex might be empty, but you can count on 60% + of it actually being paid for in cold hard cash. Its not a sham economy based on bad loans and credit. The biggest challenges this country faces is corruption, poor construction standards, pollution, and their drivers! I think you need to look for a blackswan in China elsewhere, not the economy.
Anyways, Ian, how many architects do you know of who have more than 2 or 3 courses under construction in China and are getting paid? My guess is not many. There is a lot of talk, even a lot of signed projects that will never happen.