How Long Will the High End Public Courses Last?

[Rick Sides]

I was watching the Verizon Tournament today and thinking that Harbor Town looks like a nice course but I don't know if I'd be willing to pay 300 bucks for a round there.  I also was reading a survey today in the New York Times that stated Americans are now more pessimistic about the economy than in the past several years.  Do you guys think high end daily fee courses will continue to charge hundreds of dollars a round or might that become a thing of the past as the economy continues to tank? A friend of mine is a pro in NJ and he said they los over 50 members last year because people just don't have extra money like they use to.

[David Lott]

Depends on the course. Harbor Town should continue to do fine.

[V. Kmetz]

Rick,

I think about this topic all the time, especially as many of these courses were conceived and/or launched in the champagne popping times of 1995-2005, when they could be supported by both wealthy private club members going "off property" and those about to enter true affluence, but not yet associated with a private club (as those initiation and dues rates sky-rocketed concurrently).

I think David L is right, those courses who have an establishment or cache will do fine.  I think many others are going to go to seed or present an opportunity for a new owner to get a facility at bargain prices.

I think some of the high-end private places built in the last 15 years will fall too.

cheers

vk

[J_ Crisham]

 Pebble,Spyglass, Whistling Straits and courses of this strata will be fine. My guess is that the price point of $120 will be roughly the level where the average golfer says -Is this really worth it? As the price of gas chews up an individuals disposable income there will be budgets that are stretched. As an aside ,I recently booked two golf trips and the airfare was 50% higher than the same trips last year!  It all adds up. Would not want own a CC for a day- just hard to see how they will survive the reshaped world of golf reality.
                                                                                                     Jack

[Dan Byrnes]

I can only think of the ones in my area.  Specifically Saratoga National.  I think they will do fine as I see more people giving up thier club memberships and play their 20 rounds there instead.  Have to be able to play 50 or more times to break even at lower end private clubs.  The owners there almost bought my old club that went under.  That would have brought some serious competition for the clubs in the Albany NY area.  I see less rounds per person these days so country clubs become too expensive if the only thing they have is golf and a limited season.

[David Harshbarger]

Dan,

We just joined Battenkill CC over in Greenwich, a low end semi-private club. $$ was a big factor, as was location, 12 minutes door-to-door, 5 minutes from my son's baseball practice.  For me it's a chance to introduce the kids to golf any weeknight I'm home early enough, or to play 4 guilt free holes when the opportunity arises.

Had looked at McGregor. Dev Emmett was a big plus, as was the pool.  But, couldn't justify the extra $$, nor all the OB the kids would face.  I hate to think it but those condos may be an anchor around their neck 

Saratoga National will do fine.  Not only do they have a unique high-end CCFAD product in this market, but they are tapping into a reliable seasonal influx of race people who expect that type of service from experience elsewhere.  It is like a resort course for a town that's like a resort. (Much as I gather McGregor once was).

If you haven't played Battenkill I'd be happy to take you out.  Offer extends to all GCAers.

Where were you a member?  Have you joined anywhere else?

[Carl Rogers]

I wish I knew more about Royal New Kent ... in the few times I have played there, it gives me the impression, they tried the CCFAD model and it did not seem to take ....
it is next to a racetrack... between Richmond VA and Williamsburg
it has a big clubhouse that when I have been there was basically empty...
very skimpy maintenance on the grounds...
small maintenance staff that cannot fix the bunkers very quickly after a big rain...
they advertise lots of twilight specials which when we play

[Dan Herrmann]

People will always pay (a reasonalbe amount) for quality.

To me, a poster child is Bulle Rock in Havre de Grace, MD.  They've now lowered their rates to $130, and I think that's still too high in today's economy.  Plus, their professional staff has always been pretty snooty - an attitude that needs to end.

[Eric Strulowitz]

Pebble,Spyglass, Whistling Straits and courses of this strata will be fine. My guess is that the price point of $120 will be roughly the level where the average golfer says -Is this really worth it? As the price of gas chews up an individuals disposable income there will be budgets that are stretched. As an aside ,I recently booked two golf trips and the airfare was 50% higher than the same trips last year!  It all adds up. Would not want own a CC for a day- just hard to see how they will survive the reshaped world of golf reality.
                                                                                                     Jack

Time will tell if the type of  courses you cite will be fine.   Because now you REALLY have to factor in the cost of transportation, I am shocked at where the air fares have gone just in the last month.  And then rental cars and gas and you have a really expensive proposition.

I have decided on no golf trip this year, it just does not offer value for the dollar.  Two nights/three days at Pebble Beach from where I live (Atlanta) with transportation, gas, and lodging, greens fee and all ancillaries could probably be close to $5000.  And then you have the risk factor, bad weather, and having a round or two ruined by slow play or inconsiderate golfers.    For that price, I could take my entire family of six to an all inclusive in the Domican Republic or Jamaica for a week and still have money left over.   Or we could rent a condo at Myrtle Beach and play two rounds every day for a week, and spend less than $3000.  No value in golf trips anymore, at least for long haul trips or the premium destinations.    The price points do not offset the experience, just my opinion though.

[Jeff_Brauer]

Its all a matter of degrees.  As mentioned, I think Pebble, etc. will maintain nicely.  The extra $$$ is for the one and only experience you can get at Pebble.

The newer high end courses without a lot of history will probably have to drop prices over time, both by NOT raising their rack rates, and offereing more and more discounts and packages of various types.

Its also all about perception of value, but that was true in the go-go 90's too.  I was eating breakfast at Giant's Ridge one day when a golfer realized who I was.  It turns out he arranged golf outings for his banks customers.  Gushing with compliments about the place, he ended by saying not only did his customers like GR better than the Brainerd Lakes area, but that he could "golf, sleep and feed them for about the same cost as he could provide golf elsewhere."

An equal experience at lesser cost has always been the ticket to success, i.e., value and quality.

[Jud_T]

I agree that it may be the local high end product that suffers more than the name destination courses.  I don't see myself losing interest in going to Bandon every couple years for a special trip.  I do see myself losing interest in paying top dollar for my local CCFADs.  For $125-$150 for just a casual round, the course needs to be pretty special IMO.  Add in the steep decline in the number of rounds for business entertainment combined with the stigma attached to golf outings in tough economic times (remember all those bankers everyone loves to hate?) and you end up with a pretty potent 1-2 punch for all but the best tracks...

[Jeff_Brauer]

I took some potential clients to a high end CCFAD here recently.  What really worried me for their future business prospects was that they had trimmed everything from service to maintenance in small but very noticeable ways, but were still charging the rack rate.

Sadly, it doesn't take much for the marketplace to comprehend the changes, and it will drive play elsewhere, unless others are similar in similar price ranges.

[Ken Moum]

My wife and I recently attended Tuesday at the Masters with a friend of ours, and made the trip by car from Kansas.

We played five rounds of golf on the trip, which included Greenville, SC, Columbia, SC, and Myrtle Beach.

Verdae Greens in Greenville cost us ~$40 each.

Hidden Valley in Gaston on Masters Monday was $18 for the senior rate which included a cart.

At Myrtle we stayed in a two-bedroom condo for three nights and played Aberdeen CC, Waterway Hills and Willbrook Plantation for a total of $322 per person--AND Ambassador Golf gave us each coupons worth $20 at the PGA Superstore, $20 at a number of nice restaurants in MB, and $20 toward a short from a course we played.

Now, none of those is probably on any golfer's bucket list, but I'd like to know how courses that charge $300 can compete for the average golfer's dollar when deals like those are available.

K

[Dan Byrnes]

David

I was a member of Normanside in Delmar and was club President but as much as I tried I couldn't save it as it was already to foregone by e time I got the chance.  I haven't joined a new club.  If I do it will be one of three Wolferts Roost because it's fun, year around socially, Albany CC as my wifes friends from Normanside mostly went there or Colonie country club as that is where most of my Normanside friends joined. 

Before all of those condos McGregor was really a great place.

Dan

Likewise on the invite to anyone in the Albany area for a round.  I generally can get access to any of the courses.

[Sean_A]

I am all about value golf.  The big issue concerning VALUE is it must begin with quality and, perhaps or, uniqueness.  It doesn't say much to cite green fees of $20 unless the course is of some distinction.  There are $20 deals (or whatever) up and down every state in the country.  One doesn't need to leave home for that sort of golf.   

I can sympathize with travel costs.  I know my flights to Europe from England cost 3 to 4 times as much as 3 or 4 years ago.  Diesel costs at least twice as much in the same period.  I was going to make it to Callifornia this summer but at £4000 for air tickets for 3 it was a silly proposition that I couldn't contemplate entertaining.  I know these sorts of numbers wouldn't tempt me to travel for golf unless it was for special golf on a good deal.  The day is soon coming coming when special and deal will both be a necessity for good value.  There are still some excellent value courses out there at full whack,  but each year that number decreases.

Ciao

[Dan Herrmann]

I think courses like Honeybrook (Chester County, PA) are the future of public golf:  http://www.honeybrookgolf.com/golf-course/greens-fees

It's a fun Jim Blaukovitch golf course with some decent architecture.  It's not a world-class course by any means, but the bang for the buck is tough to match.

Why would I pay $260 (for Laura and me) to play Bulle Rock when I can have MORE fun for $55 walking on a week day at Honeybrook.  And I don't get the crappy attitude you get at Bulle Rock either!

[Jerry Kluger]

I think you will see the high end local courses dealing with the situation differently from the resort high ends.  Dan mentioned Bulle Rock which does offer a deal where if you buy two rounds you get a third one free which brings down the cost substantially.  I have also seen the semi-private model where you pay an annual fee which gets the price down along with preferred tee times.  I think the lower end non-muni courses are the ones that are going to have problems as the less frequent player who doesn't care that much about condition is simply not going to play at all as opposed to someone who could be considered a more serious golfer and will pay extra for decent quality.

[Jud_T]

Arguably it all filters down the food chain.  Guys who can't afford their private clubs with high annual dues trade down to CCFADs.  I've heard this directly from one prominent local operator.  Guys who can't afford the regular tee-time at the CCFADs trade down to the town course.  So arguably it's the pricey private clubs that don't have a great classic course or aren't in the best locations in the toniest suburbs that will suffer the most.

[David Harshbarger]

Dan, I can only imagine how heart breaking that is seeing your club come to the end like that.  The T-U had a nice reprint of your letter to members.  What a shame.

[Rick Sides]

Dan H,
Is Honeybrook nice?  I'm not too far from there.

As for a lot of the other responses, it does seem like people are less likely in these economic times to not only travel, because transportation cost have gone through the roof, but some people are no longer willing to throw down 150.00 for an okay course like they did in times past.  I agree that big clubs like Pebble, and Whistling, Pinehurst, etc will probably be fine, but I was looking at some of the better tracks in Myrtle beach this week like Caledonia, TPC, Tidewater, etc. and they want almost 200 bucks a round.  I don't know how much longer courses like that can survive as the economy continues to prepare for a crash landing.

[Sean Leary]

I also wonder how many of the high end publics struggle also when the economy is down because there is less corporate play. Not only outings but also those with expense accounts spending company money....

[Tim Nugent]

Pricing has alway made me wonder.  Before the Go-Go 90's, there was a direct correlation between a HEDF and a Top Tier Ski resort lift ticket.  And it this made sense in that both were what someone would pay for a days worth of outdoor sporting recreation.  However, this seemed to change with the advent of the Corporate Golf Course Magt firms.  There added overhead and need for a profit helped cause raqtes to rise.  Plus, since their fees typically came from a combination of fixed monthly fee plus incentives like a percentage of the Gross and of the Net, they knew the more fabrilicious the course and clubhouse were, the more they stood to make. So they pshed for the Marquee/PGA Pro designer and huge development budgts (these costs did not factor into their compensation formula). 
I don't worry too much about the CCFAD courses because they can always lower prices to lure in more play.  It is the lower tier Private Clubs that I fear for.  They have no where to go but under.  And when someone comes in and picks them up at firesales and opens them up as daily fee, they will still get a majority of the old members - if they don't get greedy.

[Dan Herrmann]

Rick - Honeybrook is very nice.  It's certainly not world-class, but you'll definitely have fun out there.   

[Tom_Doak]

There is room for one high-end public course in any fairly big golf market; maybe even two in a big city or big resort area.  But nearly any course which charges over $150 is seeing significantly less play than they did three years ago.

Whether they are at risk of going under is an entirely different question, based on how much the current owners have in debt.  Pebble Beach can't go under -- they could break even as a $100 facility if they had to, scaling back the maintenance appropriately, although the ownership group would not be too happy about it.  But, any course that needs to charge well over $100 to pay off its debt, is at risk.

[Bill_McBride]

I am all about value golf.  The big issue concerning VALUE is it must begin with quality and, perhaps or, uniqueness.  It doesn't say much to cite green fees of $20 unless the course is of some distinction.  There are $20 deals (or whatever) up and down every state in the country.  One doesn't need to leave home for that sort of golf.   

I can sympathize with travel costs.  I know my flights to Europe from England cost 3 to 4 times as much as 3 or 4 years ago.  Diesel costs at least twice as much in the same period.  I was going to make it to Callifornia this summer but at £4000 for air tickets for 3 it was a silly proposition that I couldn't contemplate entertaining.  I know these sorts of numbers wouldn't tempt me to travel for golf unless it was for special golf on a good deal.  The day is soon coming coming when special and deal will both be a necessity for good value.  There are still some excellent value courses out there at full whack,  but each year that number decreases.

Ciao

I've paid for my 2011 golf travel, but 2012 is looking less likely......