[David Kelly]

I've always found Gladwell's pop sociology pretty shallow and his 10,000 hour theory particularly weak.

[RJ_Daley]

If this kid stays on course, and sticks with merely his 2 hour a day practice, he should break every NBA record, one would think.  Yet, is that really a done deal?  I don't think so.  There are just too many variables.  He might become any sort of player from a Spud Webb, to a Pistol Pete, to a Larry Bird, to a Meadowlark Lemmon.  Who knows what all the practice and talent will lead to?  He may not grow over 5'-9"  or he may peak and all his practice becomes a neverending struggle to not backslide from a zenith he reaches before he is 15yrs old.  I just don't think there are any guarantees or rules.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJ9LAZRikWc&feature=related

[Michael Powers]

Will there be a reality tv show created to document this guy's historic 10,000th hour of practice?  I can see it now, confetti, balloons, hot chicks......and great disappointment when he plays golf the next day and can't sniff 80.

[Robert Mercer Deruntz]

Being an almost been with friends who have had pretty solid careers and a couple of students who have serious game--there are a lot of intangables that overide talent.  Unfortunately, no matter how great your talent, you also need some luck.  My buddy had his PGA tour career ruined by his clubhead getting twisted in the fescue at the 2001 Open when he was offbalance and he messed up his rotator cuff.  Another student was inside the number on what is now the Nationwide 2 years in a row and then his back went out and just missed.  I played the mini tour for years and have seen great talents go nowhere and not so great talents keep getting better and finally making the tour.  The success had nothing to do with hard work being the separating factor.  Success in the right tournaments at the right time matters the most.  Years ago Brian Henniger won 2nd stage Q school at Rio Bravo shooting 26 under and winning by 14 shots--that would have easily have won anywhere in the world that week--2 weks later he missed the cut in Q school finals(there was a cut until the late 90's) And sometimes there are highly talented players who put in a minumal amount of effort and still succeed

[George Pazin]

If this kid stays on course, and sticks with merely his 2 hour a day practice, he should break every NBA record, one would think.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJ9LAZRikWc&feature=related

Thanks for the link, Dick. It reminds me of Sean Miller, the now Arizona hoops coach who went to Pitt in the late 80s/early 90s. He was on Carson as a youth:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYlqY6vikW4

I think a lot of this depends on how one defines "expert". Is Sean Miller an expert at basketball? He started all 4 years at Pitt, holds a few school records, and has been a very successful coach at Xavier and Arizona - but he never played in the NBA at all, as far as I can tell.

There's an element of competition in all sports that requires certain talents that can't be acquired through practice, imho.

[Matthew Petersen]

Agree with George and Robert's recent comments.

Virtually anyone who was able to devote most of the day every day to practicing and playing golf with passion should be able to get very good at the game. Golf is a game, after all, that rewards innumerable ways of attacking it. Some guys have success by hitting it long and being "good enough" from there, other guys will never bomb it but can play consistently and make putts all day long.

The folly with any attempt like this is underestimating the huge gulf between someone who is very, very good at golf ... and one of the few hundred people who can qualify for the PGA Tour (or the thousand or so who can make some kind of living on a lesser tour). That's a tiny percentage of even very good players, and it requires a lot of luck, as well as talent (whether accumulated or innate).

[Padraig Dooley]

Padraig, 

I am not claiming you are trying to extort money from people. I am just trying to work out who would push such a theory.  I think a bit of it probably started with that everyone is created equal stuff that has been fashionable for a few decades.

I will dig up a wealth of articles for you when I get back to my big computer but in the meantime I am interested in you take on the horse breeding industry.  Why do people pay millions for a horse with good parents if performance is entirely due to training and development?

David

I'm not saying everybody is equal. What I'm saying is for somebody to be world class at a given sport, if we define world class as being in the top 0.01% of the sport (i.e. for golf with approx 50 million players, this gives 5,000 as being world class which is probably equivalent to the amount of people who could make the cut at a PGA Tour event if they played in one), it takes at least 10,000 and 10 years of deliberate practice to become world class.

If the tour players are looked at there is no evidence that genetics are a factor in what players play on tour, there is a big variety in the players. Most sports are like this. Some sports where size does matter e.g. NBA means that genetics do matter in these sports.

In golf performance is entirely to do with training.

[Padraig Dooley]

Padraig,

Are you the guy who used to recruit 5 year-olds for the East German swim team?  

So I guess if you took 100 male children, raised them exactly the same, gave them the perfect nutrition and coaching, they'd each end up tied for #1 in the world golf ranking?  

Jud

Wouldn't be a fan of recruiting kids just to play one sport at 5, at least 5 sports until 12, and the most important thing to have fun!!

If you took the 100 kids and trained them properly they would become world class at golf. Tied for #1, would be like having 100 holes in one in a row, possible but not probable. 

 

[Padraig Dooley]

David

The question is what did Jerry Rice do when he was younger to become a college athlete. I can be certain he put in a lot of hours to become 'talented', he then upped his work load after college and became one of the best footballers. There is no talent it's all work.

Padraig,

Your theory might be a good way to get money out of parents for extravagant junior coaching, but there is little foundation in medical or biomechanical knowledge.  

David

I'm not trying to extract money from anybody. There is a ton of research on Long Term Athletic Development. Most great athletes developed by playing sports all day long while growing up. What I'm saying is that it's all about putting in the time, the time develops the talent. Can you show me medical and biomechanical research that says something different?

Padraig-I think you are way off the mark on this subject. What makes someone who played muni golf for a couple years become a single digit player versus the guy who has been playing all his life with the finest equipment,teachers,practice regimen,private club membership a 15 handicap? I would say that you could watch 4 random 7 year old kids play 4-Square for 15 minutes and tell who is the naturally gifted athlete and who is not. Chess is not a fair comparison as there is nothing athletic about it.

Tim

There is a transference between sports, if a person has good fundamental movement skills and fundamental sports skills they will be a good athlete and will pick up any sport later on pretty easily. The guy who didn't play sports as a kid will struggle later on.

For the 4 random 7 year olds, if there was one who was supposedly naturally gifted, I would like to find out what was going on in the first 6 years of their life, it would be different to the others.

[Bruce Katona]

I could hit a curve ball.  I could hit a 90 MPH fastball, but not pull a 90 MPH fastball to left field. Once I determined that to be paid to play baseball, I needed to consistantly either pull the fastball to left field or shoot it up the middle; which I just could not do; i focused on my studies and grades, graduating college on time.

Would I have liked to play CF for the NY Yankees (heck any major league team) - of course.  Just didn't have the level of skill.

Oh well.....

[Carl Nichols]

Padraig-
Do you have kids?

[MikeJones]

In golf performance is entirely to do with training.

I understand the point you are trying to make about genetics but your statement here is just plain wrong.

[Padraig Dooley]

In golf performance is entirely to do with training.

I understand the point you are trying to make about genetics but your statement here is just plain wrong.

Mike if you say the statement is wrong, how is it wrong?

[Padraig Dooley]

Padraig-
Do you have kids?

No Kids

[Mac Plumart]

This is a funny read.

Have y'all ever accomplished anything great during the course of your life?  How did you do it?  Hard work?  Natural inclination (gifts, if you will)?

Did you ever know someone who had great potential but ended up not fulfilling that potential?  Why was that?  Perhaps injury, some hardship, but most likely they were lazy and/or just didn't have the gut-busting fire for the task at hand.

How did Tiger become great?  What was Doak's deal regarding his path to becoming a great architect?  How did Warren Buffett get into investing/business?  When did Justin Timberlake start dancing and singing? 

Bottom line...start young, have some sort of gift, get great instruction, and work you ass off and you'll be great.  Defining great might be tough, however.

Change one of those variables and great becomes something less.  Maybe it is good.  Maybe it is average.  Maybe it is failure.  Again, defining those words might be tough as each is relative with a lot of context inherent in it.

But here is the deal...someone do it.  Put in 10,000 hours over the next ten years at something.  Check back with us.  I'll bet something pretty special happened along the way.  If you do this in business, I'll bet you end up "rich".  However, we will need to define "rich".  If you do it in golf, I'll bet you get "really good".  Do it in the context of working out, I'll bet you get in "good" shape.

Or we could just pooh-pooh the whole thing, say how ridiculous the idea is and go on with our "average" lives.   

[Tim Martin]

This is a funny read.

Have y'all ever accomplished anything great during the course of your life?  How did you do it?  Hard work?  Natural inclination (gifts, if you will)?

Did you ever know someone who had great potential but ended up not fulfilling that potential?  Why was that?  Perhaps injury, some hardship, but most likely they were lazy and/or just didn't have the gut-busting fire for the task at hand.

How did Tiger become great?  What was Doak's deal regarding his path to becoming a great architect?  How did Warren Buffett get into investing/business?  When did Justin Timberlake start dancing and singing?  

Bottom line...start young, have some sort of gift, get great instruction, and work you ass off and you'll be great.  Defining great might be tough, however.

Change one of those variables and great becomes something less.  Maybe it is good.  Maybe it is average.  Maybe it is failure.  Again, defining those words might be tough as each is relative with a lot of context inherent in it.

But here is the deal...someone do it.  Put in 10,000 hours over the next ten years at something.  Check back with us.  I'll bet something pretty special happened along the way.  If you do this in business, I'll bet you end up "rich".  However, we will need to define "rich".  If you do it in golf, I'll bet you get "really good".  Do it in the context of working out, I'll bet you get in "good" shape.

Or we could just pooh-pooh the whole thing, say how ridiculous the idea is and go on with our "average" lives.  

Mac-I like your post but as you stated you need to "have some sort of gift" in addition to the other requirements to truly excel. This is where many of the poster`s in this thread diverge with Padraig who discounts the "gift" or natural talent part.

[Mac Plumart]

Yeah...you can't be a total boob out there.  I certainly believe that.  And to win on the PGA Tour, eh...who knows...good, lucky, talented, etc.  You need it all for sure.

But, nevertheless, someone put in 10,000 hours over ten years and really bust your ass at it.  Something great will happen.  That is my point.  Who dares wins!

[Kalen Braley]

Yeah...you can't be a total boob out there.  I certainly believe that.  And to win on the PGA Tour, eh...who knows...good, lucky, talented, etc.  You need it all for sure.

But, nevertheless, someone put in 10,000 hours over ten years and really bust your ass at it.  Something great will happen.  That is my point.  Who dares wins!

Mac,

I get where you're coming from, but thats not the point of the article in this thread.  The point is, "do this and you become a pro"....and I say complete horse bullocks to that even though no doubt at the end you will very likely be a good golfer.

Exhibit A:

Charles Barkeley - Pro Basketball player?  Yes..... but will he ever be a pro golfer?  No way in Hell, it just ain't gonna happen.

[Mac Plumart]

Yeah, you are right.  But, in all honesty, Barkley falls in that "you can't be a boob" category.  Great basketball player, doesn't mean great golfer.

And, yes, I'd agree you need talent.  And if the article says anyone can be a pro golfer, it is wrong.  I just can't stand pessimism and/or negative Nellies, hence my responses. 

So, I'd agree that not everyone can be a pro, not everyone can be great, etc.  But I'll re-iterate, if anyone puts in 10,000 hours at something over 10 years...something pretty special will happen.  That is all I got.  Peace out!   

[Paul Stephenson]

I agree with Padraig that the physical gifts that we heap upon athletes are more readily available than we think.  When we see top collegiate or professional athletes we're seeing an end product.  We can't do that so they must have a gift.  The 10 year old prodigy is also so much farther along the learning curve compared to his/her peers that it must something divine.  

Find me another two year old child anywhere in the world who hit more balls than Tiger at that age;  I can bet Mike Douglas would have wanted this "prodigy" on his show too.  Todd Marinovich's dad started him off in utero with Trudi's diet.  The physical training towards becoming the perfect QB started before he could walk.

Why is Tiger sport's first billionaire and Todd...well just Todd?  Tenacity, drive, will, confidence.  Whatever it's called it's mental.  And it's the true gift.

[jeffwarne]

Yeah, you are right.  But, in all honesty, Barkley falls in that "you can't be a boob" category.  Great basketball player, doesn't mean great golfer.

And, yes, I'd agree you need talent.  And if the article says anyone can be a pro golfer, it is wrong.  I just can't stand pessimism and/or negative Nellies, hence my responses. 

So, I'd agree that not everyone can be a pro, not everyone can be great, etc.  But I'll re-iterate, if anyone puts in 10,000 hours at something over 10 years...something pretty special will happen.  That is all I got.  Peace out!   

Mac,
20 hours a week for year (taking two weeks off) is 1000 hours.
Plenty of golfers spend 20 hours a week at golf and their handicaps remain the same.

Lots of successful businessman out there, not too many TOUR pros.
Sure, he could do it, but based in his track record(quit at many other endeavors), I'd say he's got no chance.
I'd be surprised if he's at it in 6 months....
Not real easy to tell people you're preparing for the tour when you haven't hit a driver yet

[David_Elvins]

In golf performance is entirely to do with training.

As I stated in my first post, I am amazed that people still think this.

You dont think putting is related to eyesight, for example? 

[John_Conley]

When you look at people that are "world class" in something, inspection has found that they did toil away at their craft for the 10 years and 10,000 hours mentioned.

As I understand the 10,000 Hour Rule, it does not say that any person can pick any task and become world class if they just put in the time.

Padraig is referring a great deal to the LTAD.  I read a lot about these principles in soccer and hockey.  Maybe it is fair to say that for a kid to become the best they can be, they'll need to put in the time.  It isn't like someone is a klutz after 9,000 hours and the next 1,000 magically convert them into a phenom.

I would argue that some role-playing reserves in the NBA are not "world class" at all.  Golf doesn't really have role players.  You actually have to be an elite player to make it to the PGA Tour.  Not an elite driver, chipper, putter, wedge player, or rebounder.

[Mark Bourgeois]

I've always found Gladwell's pop sociology pretty shallow and his 10,000 hour theory particularly weak.

Amen to that.

I say with enough practice time and years of experience anyone can develop the yips.

What does everyone have to say to my theory?

[Carl Nichols]

Padraig-
Do you have kids?

No Kids

That was my guess.  I bet most parents who have at least two kids would disagree that hard work is absolutely all that matters to becoming world class in something.  When you observe the innate differences between your children, whom you know better than anyone else in the world, you realize that hard work isn't everything.  It's crtically important, but it isn't everything.

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