[Peter Pallotta]

Yes, the putting.

But here's my mystical/superstitous side showing:  

I don't think Tiger's putting used to be other-worldly simply because of excellent mechanics; I think it was other-worldly because it was, in fact, other-worldly, i.e. it came from the 'spiritual' level of Will and Intention and Belief and Desire.

It came about because it seemed to Tiger (and to most everyone else) that making every important putt he was ever faced with  was his Destiny.

Now, Life has shown him -- or has seemed to show him -- that it had Other Plans for his life; that he is not in Absolute Control; and  that Fate is Fickle.  

Yes, most of this is probably nonsense; but it is an idea that has occurred to me....

Peter

[RJ_Daley]

Is there another factor in the Tiger world that is changing, or not the same?  Is there any change in the relationship of Tiger and Steve Williams?  

I think I picked up on a subtle look and mannerism after Tiger holed out on 18 yesterday when he handed his ball to Stevie.  I saw a certain look, that I can't say if it was apologetic or embarrassed,  and sort of a stoic and non-responsive demeanor in Stevie.  With the swing changes and different mechanics approach, and maybe a different practice routine, perhaps Williams has un-expressed, or expressed in private opinions that aren't totally in sync with the game plan Tiger has in mind.  Williams may be totally loyal, yet may have certain strong feelings on what all has transpired, and what is going on now in the game plan.  His input, or lack thereof, may be a factor no one seems to be talking about, yet how could he not have some integral influence or factor in the overall product?

[George Pazin]

Find me a guy who had a similar enough career and personal history to draw valid conclusions from and maybe you'll convince me. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Bet on it.

Young Tom Morris.  

Yep, pretty similar...

I understand the fall from grace. History has shown few if any ever return following a prolonged absence from the top for any reason. But history has also shown there are few if any other Tiger Woods' out there.

Who was the pre-Hogan analog? Was there another golfer from the early 20th century who took a long time to develop, then underwent a horrific auto accident, then ended up winning in a dominant a fashion as we've ever seen?

Who was the pre-Jack analog? Who else started winning as early as anyone, won more majors, took a 6 year break from winning majors, and then won one on a miraculous Sunday?

There are simply too few examples to draw meaningful conclusions. You and I can throw out all the crazy scenarios we want, but none is meaningful, and whatever one ends up being accurate - if any - will be more luck than anything else.

[RJ_Daley]

Peter, I believe in that also.  It is a mind over matter thing.  Or, one can say destiny, but the belief has to be there that it is destiny.  

"Just do it" is more than a slogan of marketing in the world of athletic competition.  It is a matter of 'see it', 'believe it', 'commit to it', and then, 'just do it' without reservations or second thoughts.  People that compete that way, don't give up on a hiccup, don't let a hiccup bother them, and just do it again, because they believe it is their destiny.  They will their way to win.  Once any chink in that armor appears, and they in the most recessed way doubt it is their destiny, they miss the putt, the ball, the kick, the catch or throw, etc.  

In Tiger's case, can the reasons for the swing changes, including changes in response to the knee injury, long term body endurance or wear-out considerations, lead to the piling up of doubts, where the belief in destiny is replaced with work to change things because of doubts?

[Jason Topp]

I think his little wedge shots are a bigger problem than his putting.  I bet he has hit more horrible green side shots in the last 12 months than he did in his entire career up to that point.  Originally it was just on thin lies but now he hits terrible shots out of the bunker and rough.    

If you check the stats of the winner most weeks, typically that person makes very few bogies even though he hit a similar number of greens as the rest of the field.  Tiger now makes 3 or 4 a round except when he hits the ball very well.  On one of the days last week he left several bunker shots in the sand and chunked a wedge half way to the hole - all within about a 7 hole stretch.

Give him his short game shots from 2000 and I bet he would be winning 1 major and 5 tournaments a year even with his current putting stroke.
 

[Sean Leary]

I think his little wedge shots are a bigger problem than his putting.  I bet he has hit more horrible green side shots in the last 12 months than he did in his entire career up to that point.  Originally it was just on thin lies but now he hits terrible shots out of the bunker and rough.    

If you check the stats of the winner most weeks, typically that person makes very few bogies even though he hit a similar number of greens as the rest of the field.  Tiger now makes 3 or 4 a round except when he hits the ball very well.  On one of the days last week he left several bunker shots in the sand and chunked a wedge half way to the hole - all within about a 7 hole stretch.

Give him his short game shots from 2000 and I bet he would be winning 1 major and 5 tournaments a year even with his current putting stroke.
 

You might be right. His basic chipping has been horrible for a few years now. He seems to be better at the spectacular than the routine these days...

[George Pazin]

I think his little wedge shots are a bigger problem than his putting.  I bet he has hit more horrible green side shots in the last 12 months than he did in his entire career up to that point.  Originally it was just on thin lies but now he hits terrible shots out of the bunker and rough.    

If you check the stats of the winner most weeks, typically that person makes very few bogies even though he hit a similar number of greens as the rest of the field.  Tiger now makes 3 or 4 a round except when he hits the ball very well.  On one of the days last week he left several bunker shots in the sand and chunked a wedge half way to the hole - all within about a 7 hole stretch.

Give him his short game shots from 2000 and I bet he would be winning 1 major and 5 tournaments a year even with his current putting stroke.
 

All true - but do you believe he can't recover that short game? Me, I think it's just a matter of time. If he wants to put it in, I think he will get back most of his magic. I don't think he'll ever be as robotically dominant as he was in 2K, but it wouldn't take that sort of jump to turn a handful of his recent top 10s into victories. And if it just happens once or twice, that might be all he needs to regain the magic.

Shiv -

How many of those gazillion guys had the motivation Tiger had/has? To me, that's the only question. Does the fire still burn? Or will he be like Duval, just hoping for a hot week? My money's on the former (not literally, like you, I don't bet on sports).

[Jason Topp]

All true - but do you believe he can't recover that short game? Me, I think it's just a matter of time. If he wants to put it in, I think he will get back most of his magic. I don't think he'll ever be as robotically dominant as he was in 2K, but it wouldn't take that sort of jump to turn a handful of his recent top 10s into victories. And if it just happens once or twice, that might be all he needs to regain the magic.

George:  I definitely think he can get his short game back.  Given all of his distractions and the fact he is making a swing change, I am guessing he has not given his short shots the attention they need.  I see breaking Jack's record as a 50/50 proposition that will be fun to watch.

[RJ_Daley]

Remember that around 2000 all the other golfers admitted they all had to work harder, get better, stronger, more dedicated.  Well, they did!  That all factors into how many more Tiger can win against generally stronger, younger, as motivated players that he inspired.  Many of the guys that will now beat him week in and week out were 10-12 in 2000.  They saw and emulated, and now have the edge of youth and strength, and Tiger knows it. 

[Andy Troeger]

I think Tiger's incredible mental ability before all of this works against him as much as for him in his current state. He may or may not regain his confidence, but he'll never regain his aura of invincibility as a competitive golfer. He's forever a flawed human being, as opposed to some kind of golfing machine, which makes him just like everybody else regardless of wins, etc. 

Tiger no longer is a lock to win even when he gets a lead (Sherwood showed that again), plus he's not getting in contention regularly. I think Tiger's window to recover mentally is becoming pretty small--he needs that first win to regain some confidence. If he's unable to get that done this year, then I think his chances of beating Jack's record and becoming dominant again will be pretty much gone. It will be more interesting to watch if he does get some kind of win, mainly to see how he reacts and whether that boosts him forward to anything resembling his former self.

[Tim Gavrich]

A couple thoughts/comments:

- Re: most of the shorter putts Tiger's missed of late.  This could have one of or a combination of two reasons:
1. Tiger's abiity to read greens and/or Stevie's ability to read greens has deteriorated over the last couple years.
OR,
2. Maybe for a very long time, Tiger was just a little luckier than most players.  We've probably all seen the close-up, slow-motion video of the putt Tiger hit to make the playoff with Rocco Mediate at Torrey pines in '08.  It took a bunch of sizable-looking hops along the way to the hole such that one or two slightly of-kilter hops would have ended the tournament for Rocco.  Were all the edges that Tiger caught early on the product of superior skill or great luck or both?  Something to think about.

- I'm reticent to psychoanalyze Tiger, so I can't really say if his personal situation is affecting his ability to play golf right now.  I still think he will beat Nicklaus' record and end up at an even 20.  He has 15-20 years to win six more majors; he's too good not to win.  Most would agree Tiger is playing the worst golf of his career now.  It just seems crazy to think that it will last forever.  Once he locks in his latest change in swing philosophy and grabs that first win, he'll be back towards (maybe not TO, per se) his old self.  Yeah, he's older now, but he's still got more talent than just about anyone else, along with as good a head as the game has ever seen.

[Phil McDade]

Some thought Jack was done winning majors at the age of 35 (Tiger's current age) after winning the Masters and PGA in 1975. It was a line trumpeted by some, even Sports Illustrated. Then he "came back" with a win in '78 at the Open Champ. at TOC, and went on to have his great late-stage career of three majors and several close finishes, topped by Augusta '86.

But the thing is, Jack kept winning between '75 and his alleged come back in '78, even with his by-then quite truncated playing schedule. He won the TPC in '76, the Gleason tournament in Florida twice (which back then always drew a pretty good field, and Jack almost always played it because he was living in Palm Beach by then), the Memorial in '77 (which drew a very good field because of Jack's stature), and the TPC again (another very good field) in '78, four months before his win at The Old Course. And he continued to play very well in majors, with seven top-10s between his PGA win in '75 and his win at TOC in '78, including three runner-up finishes. Nice slump!

I think Shivas was correct several posts ago that Tiger ought to up his playing schedule, and go play Memphis and New Orleans and the Texas-Florida swings, even if the fields aren't loaded. I have never met a coach, in any sport, at any level, who hasn't said that winning boosts a player's confidence in his/her abilities more than anything else.

[PThomas]

Jack did have one really bad year, 1979, where he plummeted to 71st on the money list, after never having been out of the top 4 since his pro career began

I believe he really curtailed his playing time that year, which obviously hurt his game ....but even that year he missed the Masters playoff by one shot after bogeying 17 and came in 2nd to Seve in The Open

of course , he won the US Open and the PGA in 1980

[Phil McDade]

Paul:

But even in '79, Jack was one stroke out of the playoff at the Masters, T-10th at the US Open (albiet largely on the back of a final-round 68 that was tied for best round of the day), and T-2nd at the Open Ch., tied with Crenshaw and three back of Seve. I think '79 was also around the time when Jack recognized that his off-course business ventures (namely design work, which was well-established by then) were taking away from his golf game, and he decided soon after to regroup and focus more time on his game.

[PThomas]

similarly, Tiger was close at the Masters and US Open last year Phil...which is why I wonder if he will come back and have "his 1980 " this year

[Phil McDade]

Paul:

Which is why I think he needs to get back to winning...anything. These various threads (and Tiger as well) are focused on his accomplishments in majors, fairly I'd argue, but I think Tiger has always seen the Tour as a way to: a) work on various parts of his game on various courses, to figure things out for the majors; and b) fulfill sponsor/obvious obligations (playing all the Buick stuff, Jack and Arnie's tourneys, World Series crap...).

I think Tiger needs to focus less on majors, and more on just playing golf to win, in order to accomplish his majors goals.

[Andy Troeger]

If Phil's note about Jack's business ventures is correct, I think we're comparing apples to oranges a bit. Its one thing to get distracted for a year and then refocus on playing golf and quite another to have Tiger's knee surgery followed by the public humiliation of his scandal and then try to refocus on playing golf.

Tim,
Just my opinion obviously, but I think these swing changes are in part to camouflage that Tiger still isn't back mentally. It gives him an excuse for mediocre play and buys him more time internally before he has to accept why things aren't working.

Shivas,
By the way, I tend to agree with most of your Tiger musings. Just my gut feeling though and not really based on any great evidence.

[Matthew Parish]

While the poor full swings make the highlight reel, Tiger had his worst scrambling year on record last year.  Combine that with a below average putting year AND being terrible off the tee and none too good at hitting greens, and it is little wonder he struggled.  It looks like more of the same so far. 

But the thing that has been remarkable to me is that, at least in years past, if something has gone awry in his game, Tiger has made up for it somewhere else.  In 2004, he sprayed the ball all over the place.  Statistically, last year and 2004 looked pretty similar off the tee and in terms of hitting greens.  Just over 50% of his fairways and 2/3 of GIR.  The difference was Tiger finsihed second on tour in putting. Granted he won only once, but he played 19 times, made every cut, posted 14 top-10s, snd finished 3rd in scoring average.  Ridiculous for someone who couldn't seem to hit it straight.

Last five years, and the first time I can remember it happening was 2005 at Pinehurst, Tiger has not made putts on the weekends at majors, especially on Sunday. I think he had pretty decent opportunities at Augusta in 2007 and 2008.  2007 at Oakmont. The crazy thing is that despite him never making a come from behind charge, we nonetheless still had the expectation that we would.   Of course, then there was the real killer 2009 at Hazeltine. Just could not make the putts he needed to.

At least looking at the stats, Tiger's ability to hit greens seems to be the key to his successful years.  Then again, that might be said for every tour player.  But right now, unlike most players, he appears utterly lost.  You do not see any measure of confidence.  His body language is terrible, it's like he expects to miss.  I agree, I think he needs to the competitive reps.  He needs to enter more tournaments if he expects to get it back. 

[Sam Morrow]

I think some of this Tiger stuff is funny. We had the pleasure of watching some of the greatest golfer ever played and now that he can't do that every week then we have to find excuses. Tiger is still the best player in the world but he is no longer playing legendary golf.

[Sam Morrow]

We had the pleasure of watching some of the greatest golfer ever played and now that he can't do that every week then we have to find excuses.

Sam, I think the problem is that he can't do it ANY week...

It's like that Toby Keith song, "I'm not as good as I once was but I'm as good once as I ever was."

[Mark Buzminski]

A couple thoughts/comments:

- Re: most of the shorter putts Tiger's missed of late.  This could have one of or a combination of two reasons:
1. Tiger's abiity to read greens and/or Stevie's ability to read greens has deteriorated over the last couple years.
OR,
2. Maybe for a very long time, Tiger was just a little luckier than most players.  We've probably all seen the close-up, slow-motion video of the putt Tiger hit to make the playoff with Rocco Mediate at Torrey pines in '08.  It took a bunch of sizable-looking hops along the way to the hole such that one or two slightly of-kilter hops would have ended the tournament for Rocco.  Were all the edges that Tiger caught early on the product of superior skill or great luck or both?  Something to think about.

- I'm reticent to psychoanalyze Tiger, so I can't really say if his personal situation is affecting his ability to play golf right now.  I still think he will beat Nicklaus' record and end up at an even 20.  He has 15-20 years to win six more majors; he's too good not to win.  Most would agree Tiger is playing the worst golf of his career now.  It just seems crazy to think that it will last forever.  Once he locks in his latest change in swing philosophy and grabs that first win, he'll be back towards (maybe not TO, per se) his old self.  Yeah, he's older now, but he's still got more talent than just about anyone else, along with as good a head as the game has ever seen.

With all due respect, over the long haul, making putts isn't about luck - it's about belief.   If you don't believe you're going to make them, you won't.  If you want a classic example of that, sadly, look at Tom Watson's body language over that putt to win the Open at Turnberry.   Tiger's putt on #18 at Torrey Pines was pure will power, not luck.  Nowadays, Tiger to me doesn't look like he believes he's going to make anything inside of ten feet.   As for green reading, what may be happening is that all these missed putts may make you question your green-reading skills.  During this putting slump, I don't know how many times I've seen Tiger gesture with his hands in disgust as if to say the putt broke the opposite way he thought it would.  And I do agree his wedge game has been pretty bad of late - but, the putter is simply not there to bail him out.  

[Phil McDade]

If Phil's note about Jack's business ventures is correct, I think we're comparing apples to oranges a bit. Its one thing to get distracted for a year and then refocus on playing golf and quite another to have Tiger's knee surgery followed by the public humiliation of his scandal and then try to refocus on playing golf.

Andy:

Jack stayed in remarkably good health -- with no major injuries (back, knee, shoulder) that often plague golfers -- well into his 50s until his hip gave way. He contended -- walking, on a course that's considered a tough walk -- at Augusta at age 52. I often wonder if Jack's non-single-minded focus while growing up -- he was a very accomplished basketball player, and quite a good football player as well -- helped him stay healthy as a golfer. Tiger's knee problems -- a major issue I'd argue for whom power was/is an essential part of his game -- are one reason I'm now more doubtful than before that he'll catch and surpass Jack's majors win total.

[George Pazin]

...Tiger's knee problems -- a major issue I'd argue for whom power was/is an essential part of his game -- are one reason I'm now more doubtful than before that he'll catch and surpass Jack's majors win total.

In a literal sense, I don't disagree with this. Where I disagree is that I think Tiger will eventually come to grips with his knee problems and realize he didn't win all those majors due to his power, he won them on his short game and overall mental strength, and he will adjust accordingly.

That's why I said he just needs to play. Play his normal events, play lesser events, just get out and play with Mark O'Meara or whomever. Start having fun again and remember why he's the best - it was never the robotic Hogan on steroids that some seem to think.

There were a lot of people who thought he'd never be able to play a US Open style course, or deal with the vagaries of links golf, but he figured those out just fine. That's why I think it's just a matter of time before he figures out all this swing stuff is a waste of time. (It's also why I blame Haney and say he'd have already broken the record if he stayed with Butch, but that's an argument for another day.... )

Just play. When he does, the putts will fall and the magic will return. And then the younguns will start feeling the pressure.

[PThomas]

but George, power WAS a big part of at least some of Tiger's success

i will never forget him hitting PW into 15 at Augusta for his 2nd shot there in 1997!

[George Pazin]

Sure power played a role, but imho, it was a lesser role that was always overblown by fans and the media. There's plenty of guys who were/are in his ball park power-wise, but far fewer who had his short game skills and mental strength (he's in a class by himself on the latter, at least among his peers in the last 15 years).

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