Are All of Pat Mucci's Apocalyptically-Titled Threads With

[Tom_Doak]

... the title line cut off, starting to bug anyone besides me?

Patrick, could you at least give us one with a more optimistic outlook, just as a change of pace? 

[Mike Sweeney]

Tom,

It's January in Jersey, that can't be a party (or a Reality TV show).  Let's look on the bright side, we will probably run out of money BEFORE water!

[Tom Dunne]

Mike,

Not at Yale!

[Peter Pallotta]

Ha, ha - thanks for the laugh, Tom.

On the other hand, at least Pat's threads ask questions to which he doesn't already know all the answers....

Peter

[Jim_Kennedy]

PP,

You are kidding, right?

[Terry Lavin]

 

[Mark Chaplin]

Many of the great clubs have survived two world wars and a great depression so I'm sure the strong businesses will survive this little blip.

As for all the posts yes depressing!

[Lou_Duran]

Pat Mucci is an optimist.

[Andrew Summerell]

I always thought his constant use of incomplete titles was quite childish, so I refuse to look at any of them….

….which is quite childish in itself!

[Gene Greco]

     I don't take the bait any longer as well.

Patrick, time to fill in the blanks.

[Bill_McBride]

Pat Mucci is an optimist.

So was the Murphy of Murphy's Law.

[Mike Hamilton]

... the title line cut off, starting to bug anyone besides me?

Patrick, could you at least give us one with a more optimistic outlook, just as a change of pace? 

How's this for optimism?  Looks like the Florida project is safe for another quarter!


Mosaic Climbs as Net Tops Estimates on Rising Prices

Mosaic Co., North America’s second- largest fertilizer producer, rose in New York trading after fiscal second-quarter profit beat analysts’ estimates as phosphate prices and potash sales soared.
 
Mosaic climbed $2.13, or 2.8 percent, to $77.13 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares advanced 28 percent last year.
Net income rose more than ninefold to $1.03 billion, or $2.29 a share, in the three months through November from $107.8 million, or 24 cents, a year earlier, Plymouth, Minnesota-based Mosaic said yesterday in a statement. Per-share earnings excluding a $1.28 after-tax gain from the sale of South American fertilizer assets were $1.01, topping the 92-cent average estimate of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

[Patrick_Mucci]

... the title line cut off, starting to bug anyone besides me?

Patrick, could you at least give us one with a more optimistic outlook, just as a change of pace? 

Tom,

I'll try to be more upbeat.

The recent series of threads are the result of some discussions over lunch with a number of fellows who are members of different clubs, with the most recent of these discussions being held over this weekend.

We were discussing the situations at each club, and the collective situation of all of the clubs.

The one recurring theme was that "DEBT" was equated with DEATH.

Many clubs can't attract new members because of the prospective member's concern about the existing debt.

Others expressed concern over how operational expenses have become so large over the years, leading to dues of $ 20,000 or more.

Others expressed concern over their club's ability to fund and embark upon needed capital improvements in this environment.

There was almost universal agreement that the "culture" of these clubs, along with their spending philosophy, has to change if they're to continue to exist.

My motto has always been to hope for the best, but, to prepare for the worst.

I think that's a sound fiscal discipline that clubs should have adopted decades ago.

[Peter Pallotta]

So much for the theory that the rich got that way through sound judgement and prudent fiscal management 

Peter

[Patrick_Mucci]

So much for the theory that the rich got that way through sound judgement and prudent fiscal management 


Peter, when I was about 22 years old, a seasoned member took me aside when I couldn't understand a decision the Board/club had made.

He basically stated:

I don't care how successful, smart or hard working the Board members are, the moment the front wheels of their car pass through the gates, they lose a good portion of their brain and their ability to make prudent business decisions.

The other thing that you may not understand is that many decisions made at clubs are made for the benefit of the marginal member.

I'll give you an example.

For 2010 a club just had a $ 900 operational assessment.

For 2011, that club didn't want to increase the dues to cover that operational short fall which would occur again this year, because they were concerned that the $ 900 increase in dues would cause the club to lose some members.

Obviously, there will be another shortfall of at least $ 900 in 2011.

If members leave during 2011, that $ 900 will fall upon the shoulders of FEWER members, increasing the $ 900.
Hence, a mini death spiral may have begun.

It's the same with debt.

As members leave, the amount of the debt, per member, increases, and causes the club to be less and less desirable to existing and prospective members.

If you don't PAY AS YOU GO, you court disaster

[Carl Johnson]

... the title line cut off, starting to bug anyone besides me?

Patrick, could you at least give us one with a more optimistic outlook, just as a change of pace? 

Doesn't really bug me.  I've only been on this site a couple of years, and have met in person only a few others, not including Patrick.  As my wife would say, "You're all a little weird."  Originally, I thought this site would be about golf architecture.  Now, I know that's only a part of it, a bait.  There seem to be some members who glory in posting.  It's their life.  I can accept that.  Doesn't mean I have to pay any attention to it, but I can accept it and go on and look at and respond to those threads that interest me, and ignore the rest.

[PCCraig]

 

But I thought they all pay off when in the 3rd page of the thread someone mentions Obama and all hell breaks loose!

[Tiger_Bernhardt]

Pat, try having lunch with younger guys. There are few clubs good times or bad that do not have these as constant themes with the very mature set.

[JMEvensky]

The other thing that you may not understand is that many decisions made at clubs are made for the benefit of the marginal member.

Absolutely correct.And,IMO,there is nothing which has caused greater harm.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Pat, try having lunch with younger guys. There are few clubs good times or bad that do not have these as constant themes with the very mature set.

Tiger,

First and foremost, I try to have lunch with younger women.

Secondly, the younger generation is part of the problem, a clash of cultures so to speak.

The younger golfers, want to tee off at 7:00 and be out of there by 10:30-11:00 due to their family responsibilities.

That creates lots of problems for the club.

They're not going to bring in wait staff at 6:00-6:30.
Local ordinances prohibit the green crew from mowing very early, thus, the conditions can be less than ideal.
Sometimes the greens have to be mowed based on their location relative to the neighbors, so, one green can be slow and the next green fast.  Not the end of the world, but, not what you want from your golf course.

And, there's no utilization from the younger in terms of the food and other services at the club.
They don't have lulnch or dinner

As a result of the generational differences, I've suggested that clubs become more "golf" oriented, and less social or collateral services oriented.

[Bill_McBride]

The other thing that you may not understand is that many decisions made at clubs are made for the benefit of the marginal member.

Absolutely correct.And,IMO,there is nothing which has caused greater harm.

How about some examples?

Who are the "marginal" players?

[JMEvensky]

The other thing that you may not understand is that many decisions made at clubs are made for the benefit of the marginal member.

Absolutely correct.And,IMO,there is nothing which has caused greater harm.

How about some examples?

Who are the "marginal" players?

God forbid I should presume to speak for Pat,so I'll just assume you're asking me.

I took his comment to refer to "fair weather" members.My definition would be those who joined most recently,those who will threaten to resign if their own demands aren't accommodated.

From my own experience,these newer members play the "squeaky wheel" card to the extreme.Unfortunately,given a club's need for fresh blood,they tend to get their way.

[Mike Sweeney]

Tiger,

First and foremost, I try to have lunch with younger women.

That was a Top 10 All Time GCA Muccism and that is saying something!

Pat,

This really is not a new situation, it is only new for golf. The "city" athletic (and social) clubs went through this years ago. My Uncle Jack tried to get me to join the Downtown Athletic Club, former home of The Heisman Trophy, when I moved to NYC in 1989. It had one location downtown and I could not really get there much, the facilities were really just okay and NY Sports Clubs had multiple gyms (no social) close to my work and apartment. Now NY Sports is all around the East Coast and my wife, my son and me are all members for $1800 per year. We get a very good rate because they our home club is in our apartment building and I have been a member for 20+ years.

When I left the NY Athletic Club it was basically three times that. It obviously is a different social and facility experience, but reality it was just hard to get there, and they would not let my son join as a member till he was 16. Today, he has been ranked as high as #24 in the US in squash via NY Sports and his coaches and friends there and the NYAC alienated a kid for life that they taught to play squash.   I can't tell you how many times we got emails and letters that the NYAC needed younger members!!

The Downtown Athletic Club and City Athletic Club both closed, NY Sports thrived and many of the other private/athletic clubs have adjusted their models. The University/Athletic Clubs (Yale, Harvard, Princeton, Penn, Cornell) seem to have adjusted with their younger alumni best, with reasonable rates, lots of mixing socially, relaxed dress codes, and the admission standards are also relaxed. Through the Cornell Club, I can play Yale and Upper Montclair and they have reciprocal clubs (mainly athletic but some golf) when I travel.

Golf clubs will adjust eventually. Some like Baltusrol and Canoe Brook in Jersey will get stronger and some will adjust and some will close/convert to public.

Based on what I am seeing in business the last 6 months, the world will get better economically and unemployment will get better. The mistake for golf would be to say "it was just a recession problem". It my opinion, it is a lifestyle problem for golf, but the debt is not going to help clubs.

[Bill_McBride]

Based on what I am seeing in business the last 6 months, the world will get better economically and unemployment will get better. The mistake for golf would be to say "it was just a recession problem". It my opinion, it is a lifestyle problem for golf, but the debt is not going to help clubs.

That to me is the biggest challenge for private clubs, and it is key to reinvigorating the game and the clubs.  

Certainly adjusting budgets and paying down debt are important.  Attracting younger members in an era od tight economic times is a huge challenge.

[Jay Flemma]

But I thought they all pay off when in the 3rd page of the thread someone mentions Obama and all hell breaks loose!

ha!!! Nice 

I'd mention Obama, but my doctor warned me it's bad for my blood pressure and acid reflux:)