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Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #275 on: February 01, 2011, 09:59:53 PM »
Of course Jeff, working off the books puts not only the person on unemployment in a position for serious repercussions, but also the person paying that person...but given current conditions where there really isnt any work I doubt its a big issue at all. In good times when you can find a job, why work off the books?  You work off the books you get zero unemployment later when you are unemployed.

Seems to me this is yet another myth designed to denegrate low wage workers....

If you like I could post a couple dozen links to elected Republican officials who have called the unemployed every name in the book in the last year alone while the country is experiencing terrible unemployment.  With over 20 million Americans unemployed you would think they would be more careful about speaking ill of such a large voter group.

By the way Jeff...when was the last time you were unemployed?
We are no longer a country of laws.

mike_malone

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #276 on: February 01, 2011, 10:14:56 PM »
  Private golf clubs will probably be a more reliable indicator of the real health of the economy in the next several years than rigged government statistics. We will see. I just wish I could hedge my membership. My guess is that a golf club is an expenditure for the better off that they will resist giving up. My sense is that  "hanging on by a thread" is moving up the economic ladder. Will we get more confident as a people or will we decide to retrench , cut back, and repair our balance sheets?
« Last Edit: February 01, 2011, 10:27:24 PM by mike_malone »
AKA Mayday

Patrick_Mucci

Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #277 on: February 01, 2011, 10:29:57 PM »
David Tepper,

Vacancy rates on office buildings in Northern NJ continue to climb and are currently almost double their 2000 rates.

For the 4th quarter of 2010 the vacancy rate was 14.2 %.

If things are so good, as you claim, why are the vacancy rates continuing their upward climb ?


jeffwarne

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #278 on: February 01, 2011, 10:39:15 PM »
Of course Jeff, working off the books puts not only the person on unemployment in a position for serious repercussions, but also the person paying that person...but given current conditions where there really isnt any work I doubt its a big issue at all. In good times when you can find a job, why work off the books?  You work off the books you get zero unemployment later when you are unemployed.

Seems to me this is yet another myth designed to denegrate low wage workers....

If you like I could post a couple dozen links to elected Republican officials who have called the unemployed every name in the book in the last year alone while the country is experiencing terrible unemployment.  With over 20 million Americans unemployed you would think they would be more careful about speaking ill of such a large voter group.

By the way Jeff...when was the last time you were unemployed?

Craig,
You seem to have very informed intelligent opinions.
If you were in Congress (and could get around the gridlock) what would you do to improve the unemployment situation in this country?(short and long term)
Not looking for a fight, but rather a solution. (because I don't have one at the moment)
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

David_Tepper

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #279 on: February 01, 2011, 11:16:47 PM »
"If things are so good, as you claim, why are the vacancy rates continuing their upward climb ?"

Pat Mucci -

I am making no claims whatsoever. I am simply relating facts, data, information and the opinion of others.

With regards to northern NJ office space, how much new office space has been built in that area since 2000? Unless you can tell us what the total capacity office space was in northern NJ in 2000 and what it currently is, comparing vacancy rates is an utterly meaningless statistic.

DT

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #280 on: February 02, 2011, 10:53:33 AM »
Jeff....regarding unemployment...First of all, I would make sure it is funded fully so people that have been unemployed for 99 weeks can continue to receive benefits while we work through this recession.

I do not think that job creation is  the duty soley of any particuliar segment....there has to be both public and private investment in job creation. Pat Mucci said it best...business is not investing right now. They are sitting on cash...waiting.  So, where will the stimulus for job creation come from?  Certainly we have much work to do in this country rebuilding our infrastructure....the potential is there to put hundreds of thousands of Americans to work on roads and bridges and sewer projects....but who will pay for it?  I think this is where the government has to step in and make the investment. 

I think targeted tax cuts...such as the payroll tax reduction...can put money in the hands of people who will spend it...and this might be the spark of demand we need....and in my opinion demand drives job creation. But again, I think the tax cut has to be targeted at those who spend nearly every nickel of there pay check...

Lastly...if you do some googling you can find plenty of evidence that things such as food stamps and unemployment benefits return much more bang for the buck than you might expect. However, I have never met anyone on either program, that would not trade it for a job that pays them enough to buy food, pay the rent, etc. etc.
We are no longer a country of laws.

Jud_T

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #281 on: February 02, 2011, 11:04:50 AM »
How will we create jobs?  Fear will turn to greed.  Confidence will lead to investment.  It's happening as we speak.  It's just a painfully slow process this time around and 7% may be the new normal.
Golf is a game. We play it. Somewhere along the way we took the fun out of it and charged a premium to be punished.- - Ron Sirak

David_Tepper

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #282 on: February 02, 2011, 11:37:48 AM »
"Private Sector Jobs Gains Beat Forecasts"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Private-sector-adds-187000-rb-1421232269.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

From today's Wall Street Journal:

"Private-sector payrolls expanded at a solid pace in January, led by small-business hiring, according to data released Wednesday."

"Unemployment Rate Drops In Most Metro Areas"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Unemployment-rate-drops-in-apf-2765182753.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
« Last Edit: February 02, 2011, 01:46:14 PM by David_Tepper »

mike_malone

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #283 on: February 02, 2011, 01:59:31 PM »
 Jud,

    I think you really need to ignore the facts of history in order to make that previous statement.

      
      "fear will turn to greed"-----History shows that once we peak at some excessive greed levels it takes at least a generation to get
the MAJORITY  back to those levels of greed. So, it ended in 2000 for stocks and 2005 for real estate. We are unwinding the average investor's interest in U.S. stocks ( 4 years of more money leaving DOMESTIC equity funds then going in). This process usually ends with a complete hatred for stocks. The real estate thing has a looong way to go.

    Now I'll agree that speculative fear has turned to greed but that enthusiasm does not SUSTAIN moves in stocks it just creates another bubble.

   It is sustained moves that encourages investors to return to long term investments.


  "It's happening as we speak". Confidence indicators that use the yield spread and stock movements are up to just above recession levels. Consumer confidence indices like ABC's which only track consumer's attitudes suck as well as the sentiment index of small businesses which is UP to previous recession levels.  What is happening is not confidence it is speculative activity.

 "  Painfully slow " takes forever to lead to greed, so if your 7% refers to a possible return for stocks in the next several years I don't see that making people giddy. Of course, I think there is a snowball's chance in hell we will see those gains.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2011, 01:37:30 PM by mike_malone »
AKA Mayday

Jud_T

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #284 on: February 02, 2011, 02:07:53 PM »
Mike, the 7% I was referring to was the new base unemployment rate.  If you think equity returns are likely to average less than 7% you're already 3 years behind dude...Happy mattress stuffing....You're right, it will take a generation for the average Joe to be piling back into stocks and real-estate.  That's when the smart money will be SELLING....
« Last Edit: February 02, 2011, 02:13:09 PM by Jud Tigerman »
Golf is a game. We play it. Somewhere along the way we took the fun out of it and charged a premium to be punished.- - Ron Sirak

mike_malone

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #285 on: February 02, 2011, 03:30:19 PM »
  Jud,

     I am wrong often but not some permabear. This what I wrote in Oct'08.


"I think the fundamental  and financial problems of the economy are fully reflected in the markets now. But, the forced selling coming from the destruction of hedge funds is truly amazing. I am now seeing prices on some things (closed end bank loan funds) that are significantly below what I could imagine. These are once in a lifetime opportunities in my opinion. I bought Pfizer for a few accounts today just so I could tell my grandchildren.
 
 
       You need to be very liquid and very patient to operate in this environment."
AKA Mayday

Patrick_Mucci

Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #286 on: February 02, 2011, 04:10:04 PM »
I was looking at some club statistics the other day and was startled by what they revealed.

From 2005 to 2010 some clubs were down 20 % in membership.

This, in spite of substantial reductions in initiation fees.
Some clubs have even waived initiation fees.

And still, they lack sufficient membership numbers, ergo revenue.

It seems that DUES or rather dues that have increased dramatically over the last decade are a huge impediment to prospective members who are considering whether to join.

Obviously, clubs with substantial debt, have a more difficult recruiting task.

The first question I would ask is:

What did these same clubs do to survive during the great depression ?

Would that not be the model for survival today ?

Jim_Kennedy

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #287 on: February 02, 2011, 04:32:38 PM »
There were 5,845 courses in 1930 and 4,809 after the depression/WW2.

I don't think there was anything that they did back then that modern clubs who are trying to save themselves aren't doing today.

The only thing that saved more clubs from going out of existence back then was the boom after the war.





"I never beat a well man in my life" - Harry Vardon

Patrick_Mucci

Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #288 on: February 02, 2011, 05:19:28 PM »
There were 5,845 courses in 1930 and 4,809 after the depression/WW2.

I don't think there was anything that they did back then that modern clubs who are trying to save themselves aren't doing today.

The only thing that saved more clubs from going out of existence back then was the boom after the war.

Jim,

I'd disagree.

The gap in the time span between the great depression and Pearl Harbor are considerable, far too long for a club to cling to life.

Perhaps, clubs were simpler, in terms of operation, then.

Perhaps, pools, tennis, and social functions were a small percentile of the overall budget.

What I've noticed is that clubs DON'T want to change their culture, their methods of operation.
They want the same quality and quantity of food out of the kitchen and they want it at the same hours they've always had it, including the half-way house or on the course snack shacks.

Hours of operation are longer today, from 6:30-7:00 am until dark.

Valet parking remains intact.

Golf staffs remain large.

I remember when all you had was a Head Pro and an Assistant Pro.
Today, I see three, four or more in Professional staff.

Large Green crews are needed in order to produce immaculate conditions, (usually green)

I remember when fairways were brownish, yellowish, greenish.

You rarely see that today.

To a great degree, TV has been and continues to be a terrible influence on course conditions and expectations and costs.

End of rant (;;)
« Last Edit: February 02, 2011, 06:47:33 PM by Patrick_Mucci »

mike_malone

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #289 on: February 02, 2011, 06:20:07 PM »
 Pat,

    I agree that clubs are more vulnerable now than then and so is the economy. That's a bad mixture in my mind.
AKA Mayday

Jud_T

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #290 on: February 02, 2011, 07:10:41 PM »
I think the economy's OK, I think the private club model of the last 20 years is not...
Golf is a game. We play it. Somewhere along the way we took the fun out of it and charged a premium to be punished.- - Ron Sirak

Patrick_Mucci

Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #291 on: February 02, 2011, 08:44:46 PM »

I think the economy's OK, I think the private club model of the last 20 years is not...

What's wrong with it ?

Mike Sweeney

Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #292 on: February 02, 2011, 09:12:27 PM »

I think the economy's OK, I think the private club model of the last 20 years is not...

What's wrong with it ?

Patrick,

If you can find 5 guys here under 35 who WANT to have their wedding in this room,



I will make a contribution to The Shirt Charity Fund or a charity of your choice:



Doug Siebert

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #293 on: February 03, 2011, 12:58:35 AM »
What guy (of any age) decides where his wedding will be held?  His fiance is making that call!  Not saying a bride under 35 is going to like that gaudy room any more than a guy under 35, however...
My hovercraft is full of eels.

Jud_T

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #294 on: February 03, 2011, 09:23:59 AM »

I think the economy's OK, I think the private club model of the last 20 years is not...

What's wrong with it ?

Pat,

All I'm saying is that there are only so many full service clubs with high dues around major metro areas that can be justified on an ongoing basis.  Sure in Greenwich there are guys willing to drop $20k in dues plus all the tipping and extras to have the full complement of services and conveniences that an elite club can offer.  But how many guys in the exurbs of middle america are really willing to pony up $10k/year after tax before setting foot on the property?  Only the best full-service courses and clubs in the best suburban locations will have full rosters.  The rest will need to provide good golf at a good price.  This may mean a bunch of semi-private or private to public, new owners coming out of a reorg or bankruptcy IMHO or even some courses where the land is worth more than a club's p&l justifies being plowed under...
« Last Edit: February 03, 2011, 09:29:47 AM by Jud Tigerman »
Golf is a game. We play it. Somewhere along the way we took the fun out of it and charged a premium to be punished.- - Ron Sirak

Lou_Duran

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #295 on: February 03, 2011, 10:59:00 AM »
.... and the answer is:

Pat,

All I'm saying is that there are only so many full service clubs with high dues around major metro areas that can be justified on an ongoing basis.  Sure in Greenwich there are guys willing to drop $20k in dues plus all the tipping and extras to have the full complement of services and conveniences that an elite club can offer.  But how many guys in the exurbs of middle america are really willing to pony up $10k/year after tax before setting foot on the property?  Only the best full-service courses and clubs in the best suburban locations will have full rosters.  The rest will need to provide good golf at a good price.  This may mean a bunch of semi-private or private to public, new owners coming out of a reorg or bankruptcy IMHO or even some courses where the land is worth more than a club's p&l justifies being plowed under...

The next obvious questions might be: whereas WWII brought great unity, purpose, and productivity not only reflected in incredible economic terms, but also in the optimism in the future which helps to explain the great Baby Boom, what do we/Golf have going at this time?  What is going to backstop the decline in rounds played and excess inventory?  At what point will equilibrium be reached?  When?

Jim_Kennedy

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #296 on: February 03, 2011, 11:44:25 AM »
Pat,
I may not have stated it well, but what I was trying to say was that modern clubs who are having difficulties and want to save themselves will only be able to do it the same way that clubs in the '20s did.They removed bunkers, cut back on maintenance, and in general, moved toward austerity. Borderline club's that make the mistakes you mentioned aren't being serious about saving themselves. If they were they'd be making a prioritzed list of all the 'luxury' services and identifying the ones that they could do without, and their boards would at least be recommending a temporary suspension of them until the picture improves.

During the Great Depression the stock market declined for ten straight years, but even though we aren't faced with that today we still don't have enough jobs and wages have not risen along with the level of production. If employee incomes don't rise it means that all the business men and women who are members at these clubs have fewer buyers for their products and services. I believe that the greatest number of members at private clubs aren't solely dependent on 'clipping coupons', they need a healthy middle class with a reasonable amount of disposable income, and they won't feel safe about staying at their club until that happens.

But overall, I don't think the future of golf clubs improves until the economy improves for everyone, and that will not happen until someone clips the wings of the speculators who are just as happy making their money on a failing America than on a healthy one.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2011, 11:46:33 AM by Jim_Kennedy »
"I never beat a well man in my life" - Harry Vardon

Patrick_Mucci

Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #297 on: February 03, 2011, 01:40:28 PM »
Jim,

I'd agree.
A club that relies upon coupon clippers isn't long for this world.
Clubs need members who have jobs.
"Change" doesn't come easy for most, but, clubs that don't change are going to find themselves in a deeper hole than clubs that do adapt.

Jud,

Clubs evolved from simple golf courses to facilities with every amenity known to man.
Workout rooms, pool rooms, card rooms, steam rooms, barber shops, slumber rooms, etc.,etc.

The dining facilities and services expanded.

Clubs expanded their physical plant in order to accomodate parties, weddings, Bar Mitzvahs along with formal dining, casual dining and dining right off the golf course.

Pools now had to have food pavilions

Tennis had to have snack shops, pro shops, etc.etc..

This trend began post WWII and has hit an abrupt wall recently.

All of these facilities and services ran up the operating cost and the cost to join.

It's hard to alter a culture, a way you've been doing things for 65 years, in a year or two.
Especially when many think that this too, will pass quickly and we'll be back to the good olde days shortly.

I see it differently.

In general, clubs need to adjust their culture, their method of operation.
They need to shrink operations and expenses, not just this year, but, for the foreseeable future.

Golf and belonging to a golf club has to be affordable in the here and now, not the past and not how some people perceive it will be in the future.

Scaling back, culturally, operationally, must occur if a club is to survive over the next 5-10 years.

Clubs with significant debt are the most at risk, since there's no scaling back on the interest and principal payments, and that's a deterant to prospective members joining.

End of rant(;;)

Jud_T

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #298 on: February 03, 2011, 02:00:31 PM »
Pat,

We're pretty much on the same page.  Unfortunately in some instances significant change may only be achievable under a new ownership/refinancing model.
Golf is a game. We play it. Somewhere along the way we took the fun out of it and charged a premium to be punished.- - Ron Sirak

Mike_Trenham

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: If the current economic environment continues, will
« Reply #299 on: February 03, 2011, 10:51:40 PM »
The first question I would ask is:

What did these same clubs do to survive during the great depression ?

Would that not be the model for survival today ?

I'll tell you what my club did.  It got the young hot shot banker (Future President of  another bank) to go renegotiate the loan to have the unpaid interest forgivien and the rate reduced to 4% with a 30 year term.  That guy saved our club but could never save par from a bunker...  A hell of guy.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2011, 07:24:27 AM by Mike_Trenham »
Proud member of a Doak 3.