If the current economic environment continues, will

[Jud_T]

Don't worry, our fearless leader will save the day....

"Birinyi says S&P 500 Index may surge to 2854 by 2013" on CNBC.....

[Patrick_Mucci]

The forecasts are meaningless.

When you look at REAL unemployment, it's scarey.

We need to bring MANUFACTURING back to America.

LOCAL, COUNTY, STATE AND FEDERAL GOVERNMENTS must work in concert to provide a favorable environment to attract and retain manufacturing.

Then, and only then should you bring back the STYMIE !

[PThomas]

The forecasts are meaningless.

When you look at REAL unemployment, it's scarey.

We need to bring MANUFACTURING back to America.

LOCAL, COUNTY, STATE AND FEDERAL GOVERNMENTS must work in concert to provide a favorable environment to attract and retain manufacturing.

Then, and only then should you bring back the STYMIE !

but how Patrick when wages are so much less overseas?  Protective tariffs??

[Lou_Duran]

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/us_20th_century_chart.html

Things will not turn around for any prolonged period of time until the masses require the political class and its dependents to produce the mirror image of the chart depicted above.  The approach of trimming around the margins and blatantly misrepresenting continued massive spending as "investing" can't possibly work as the system is extremely corrosive and destructive at its very core.  Can we
coax the genie back in the bottle?  Probably not but, for the sake of "the children", I hope that we at least try.  

 

[David_Tepper]

"Gloomy Economic Guru Says America Is Back"

"We have restored our confidence in the resilience of the American economy."

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/111966/gloomy-economic-guru-says-america-is-back?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

Now I'm starting to worry!

[Mike Sweeney]

Now I'm starting to worry!

Don't worry, Economist Mayday will be sitting on the offer for a looooooong time!

[Bruce Katona]

The "off balance sheet" obligations of the US Federal Gov't (Social Security & medicaire specifically) will be solved in the short-term - the next 5 years.  Why - simply because the baby boom generation had begun to tap into the fund and politically the masses depending on Social Security for retirement will pressure their representatives to insure the system is solvent for each of them to collect during their retirement.

The answer is fairly simple to solve SSN - either increase slightly the age of retirement or raise the income cap for withholding SSN form taxable wages.  This is what the "fix" will be; the "rich" will need to contribute more to correct the flaws in the system.

[mike_malone]

 Mike Sweeney,

    It isn't that I'm avoiding responding ; I think I have said enough. I'm confident in my views.

[Lou_Duran]

The reknowned philosopher of my generation (freaks and hairies), the great Alvin Lee, once wrote: "tax the rich, feed the poor, till there are no rich no more".  Puzzling in its equivocation, he went further to say "I'd love to change the world, but I don't know what to do.  So I'll leave it up to you".

As history has amply demonstrated, there is no shortage of utopian acitivists to take his charge (of the 'changing'), but scarcely none who seem to 'know what to do'.  And there are even fewer to accept the consequences of their well-intentioned actions personally.

For those seeking enlightment and/or enjoyment: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzrUqAtUcpU

Re: golf and the current environment- I played yesterday (gf $18.94, cart and range balls included) with three other seniors.  One drove a new 5-Series BMW, another a recent vintage large Audi, and the third a hefty SUV that looked a year or two old.  Two of the three played over 150 rounds last year.

None of us in the foursome were members of a private club, though all have been at one time (me for well over 30 years at four different clubs).  Availability of affordable opportunities at comparable and often better courses appears to be the top reason.  Financial flexibility was another.  The high turn-over at private clubs affecting the club culture and group dynamics was cited.

These guys didn't seem ready to consider a private club despite numerous "bargains" in the area, though speed of play at public courses was mentioned as a concern (we played in 4:13, being held up on half-dozen holes, three riding and me walking- no I am not antisocial or a cheapskate, I am "training" for the KP at Bandon).  The conditions of the greens was another negative.

Is this group representative of a significant segment of the golfing population?  I think so.  And if so, what it means to second and third tier private clubs is that a major shift in their marketing and operating policies will be necessary.  The sharing of equipment might be a part, with an extension to technical expertise and even labor possibly included in the survival equation.  Perhaps a loose association of clubs offering reciprocity for a cart fee during non-peak times (similar to ClubCorp and American Golf without ownership transfering to the corporate entities) might provide the variety that many golfers seem to value.

I was once advised to make minor investments in two leading companies in different, declining industries.  Both companies were gaining market share and were expected to achieve great economies of scale and considerable pricing power.  The argument made great sense and these two companies had sound management and decent balance sheets.  One of the companies went bankrupt; the other is staging a come-back which has enabled me to sell half of my stake at a 10% loss while still down nearly 40% on the rest.

The moral of this story is that fighting strong trends is for the brave of heart or, perhaps, the foolhardy.  Is the golf industry analogous?  I tend to think so.

[David_Tepper]

"U.S. Corporate Profits Surge"

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/111985/US-corporate-profits-surge?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

[David_Tepper]

"GM, Chrysler, Kia Report Big January U.S. Sales Gains"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GM-Chrysler-Kia-report-big-apf-3738894223.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

[Patrick_Mucci]

David Tepper,

If things are so good, as you'd like to portray, why are golf courses experiencing greatly reduced rounds, lower memberships and less dining room revenue ?

Why have airlines cut back on the number of flights and the size of the planes on previously overbooked routes.
On Sunday afternoon, the West Palm Beach to Newark flight, usually oversold on a big plane, had empty seats on a tiny Embraer Jet.

Why are restaurants less crowded, doing less business if things are so good.

Even the traffic in Florida, in mid season is mild

And, perhaps the most telling barometer of all, why are strip clubs experiencing huge downturns in the number of patrons, food and beverage ?(;

Keep believing that things are great because a few companies slashed expenses and had some spikes in revenue.

But, more important than anything.

Tell me which corporations are going on a hiring spree ?

Which corporations are spending vast sums to expand their operations ?

Which corporations are making huge capital investments ?

Just name ten.

Out of the millions of corporations, just name 10

[David_Tepper]

"GDP: Favorable Auguries"

"The fourth-quarter GDP report, released Friday should convince all but the most diehard double-dippers that the expansion of 2011 is firmly aloft."

The column also states the GDP in the 4th quarter of GDP exceeded  its precession peak (from the 4th quarter of 2007) and that the change in real consumer spending was at a record high.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203876704576102173534833038.html?mod=BOL_twm_col

Pat -

You must be one of "the most diehard double-dippers!"

DT    

[jeffwarne]

David Tepper,

If things are so good, as you'd like to portray, why are golf courses experiencing greatly reduced rounds, lower memberships and less dining room revenue ?

Why have airlines cut back on the number of flights and the size of the planes on previously overbooked routes.
On Sunday afternoon, the West Palm Beach to Newark flight, usually oversold on a big plane, had empty seats on a tiny Embraer Jet.

Why are restaurants less crowded, doing less business if things are so good.

Even the traffic in Florida, in mid season is mild

And, perhaps the most telling barometer of all, why are strip clubs experiencing huge downturns in the number of patrons, food and beverage ?(;

Keep believing that things are great because a few companies slashed expenses and had some spikes in revenue.

But, more important than anything.

Tell me which corporations are going on a hiring spree ?

Which corporations are spending vast sums to expand their operations ?

Which corporations are making huge capital investments ?

Just name ten.

Out of the millions of corporations, just name 10

the same people who were declaring all is well in late 2007, and pushing the Dow to 14,000 are the ones who are hiding in their bunkers right now and missed a 100%+ runup in the Nasdaq,  a 90% in the Dow and a similar S&P gain-all in the last 22 months while the naysayers kept saying the sky was falling.
Where would you rather be?  fall of 2007......................or now?

Golf courses are struggling because most have failed business plans run by nonprofessionals, there are too many of them, and they borrowed like crazy when money was cheap and sense was short. Many will continue to struggle and not enough will go away due to the "labor of love" nature of the business, thus weighing down most for years to come.

Outside the golf world, I know lots of people who are prudently yet conservatively hiring, of course these are the same people who were prudently yet conservatively hiring and running their businesses the same way when there was dancing in the streets a few years ago.

Are things perfect?-absolutely not.
but the trend is improving.
and by the way, things are never perfect.

Now that the leader of the people's republic has given up his class warfare rants, the best could be yet to come-not without the bumps in the road though. Improved productivity means many jobs are gone forever, it will take time to get back to full employment-and full employment may be a number some don't like 6-7%, but historically that's about where it used to be, and with the professional abusers out there, it'd be hard to get it much lower.

[David_Tepper]

"Stocks Climb After Strong Earnings Reports"

""We are seeing businesses spend again and this is exactly what we needed to see for this economy to move forward."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-climb-after-strong-apf-71673583.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

[Patrick_Mucci]

"GDP: Favorable Auguries"

"The fourth-quarter GDP report, released Friday should convince all but the most diehard double-dippers that the expansion of 2011 is firmly aloft."

The column also states the GDP in the 4th quarter of GDP exceeded  its precession peak (from the 4th quarter of 2007) and that the change in real consumer spending was at a record high.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203876704576102173534833038.html?mod=BOL_twm_col

Pat -

You must be one of "the most diehard double-dippers!"

David, I have a broad spectrum of corporate clients.
Not one of them is embarking on a significant hiring spree.
Not one of them is expanding.
Not one of them is investing significant sums in capital improvements.

Business is not good, certainly not "rosey" as you portray it.

And, I see it in restaurants, malls, traffic, golf clubs/courses, hotels, casinos and yes, strip joints.

Will business get better ?

I certainly hope so.

But, until the municipalities, counties, states and Federal government realize that they need to partner with business, not antagonize and drive it elsewhere, things aren't going to get better.

And, while they're at it, those governments need to clean up their own financial acts.
They've been MORE RECKLESS than the banks and Wall Street, and now the chickens have come home to roost and they still don't want to adopt sound actuarial and sound business practices.

You'll find a common thread in all of this.

It's always easier to spend other people's money.

At the public corporation level and at the government level.

The people who get hurt are the people who own/manage their own businesses and their employees.
They can only spend their OWN money, and typically, they do it wisely, although, there are exceptions to the rule.    

[Patrick_Mucci]

"Stocks Climb After Strong Earnings Reports"

How is that benefiting the almost 20 % who are unemployed in this country ?[/b]

""We are seeing businesses spend again and this is exactly what we needed to see for this economy to move forward."

Says whom ?
Which businesses are spending ?  On what ? and how much ?[/b]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-climb-after-strong-apf-71673583.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

[David_Tepper]

Pat Mucci -

Please cite were I ever referred to the economic/business conditions are being "rosey." Thank you.

I am portraying nothing. I am simply providing access to facts and information from a variety of credible sources, sources I have used as an investment professional for 30 years to make money for my clients. You are welcome to accept or reject the information I have offered as you wish.  

DT

[jeffwarne]

"Stocks Climb After Strong Earnings Reports"

How is that benefiting the almost 20 % who are unemployed in this country ?[/b]

""We are seeing businesses spend again and this is exactly what we needed to see for this economy to move forward."

Says whom ?
Which businesses are spending ?  On what ? and how much ?[/b]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-climb-after-strong-apf-71673583.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

20%??
I know approximately 30-50 people currently collecting unemployment. Part of the 10% unemployed in this country.
I can think of only one of the 50 who isn't working off the books at the moment.(the snow has been a real boon to business)
Our unemployment system incentivizes people not to work (particularly by extending their benefits), and if they do work, they work off the books and deprive the government of more taxes.
I also know a few people who are in his country illegally with limited/no skills.  They work and pay their bills and pay no taxes because we won't let them legally in the country .They have no incentive to not work, so they do work. they'd gladly pay taxes if they could be hired legally.

[Patrick_Mucci]

the same people who were declaring all is well in late 2007, and pushing the Dow to 14,000 are the ones who are hiding in their bunkers right now and missed a 100%+ runup in the Nasdaq,  a 90% in the Dow and a similar S&P gain-all in the last 22 months while the naysayers kept saying the sky was falling.

That's not true.

Many people were alarmed in 2007.
Many people had NO influence, no ability to choose their lot.
Pension funds were invested in the market, peoples life savings were invested.
Do you think they anticipated the crash ?
People smarter than all of us got burned.

As to the run-up, who amongst us knew when the market would bottom out.

Who amongst us took all of their money out at 14,000 and knew exactly when to throw it back in as the market continued to plummet ?

20-20 hindsight makes geniuses out of all of us.[/b]


Where would you rather be?  fall of 2007......................or now?

Depends upon the course of action you took or would take in 2007 and the course of action you elect now[/b]

Golf courses are struggling because most have failed business plans run by nonprofessionals, there are too many of them, and they borrowed like crazy when money was cheap and sense was short. Many will continue to struggle and not enough will go away due to the "labor of love" nature of the business, thus weighing down most for years to come.

That's pure nonsense.
Some clubs may have taken on unrealistic amounts of debt, but, they're in the minority.
Most clubs got hit because members dropped out because they got layed off, experienced pay reductions or lost money in investments.
If you look at the operations of clubs they reacted like most businesses and trimmed expenses.
The problem with clubs today is the same as the problem corporations are facing.
The CAN'T get increased revenue[/b]

Outside the golf world, I know lots of people who are prudently yet conservatively hiring, of course these are the same people who were prudently yet conservatively hiring and running their businesses the same way when there was dancing in the streets a few years ago.

Baloney, or Bologna.
If someone is operating their business exactly as they were 4 years ago, they've been doing something wrong, either four years ago or today.  When volume is heavy/increasing, you ramp up to do more business, to make more profits.  When volume is light/decreasing, you scale back and take a defensive position.  You don't run your business the same way irrespective of market conditions.[/b]

Are things perfect?-absolutely not.
but the trend is improving.
and by the way, things are never perfect.

Now that the leader of the people's republic has given up his class warfare rants, the best could be yet to come-not without the bumps in the road though. Improved productivity means many jobs are gone forever, it will take time to get back to full employment-and full employment may be a number some don't like 6-7%, but historically that's about where it used to be, and with the professional abusers out there, it'd be hard to get it much lower.

You have to bring back manufacturing if you want to create MEANINGFUL jobs.
A service industry society won't sustain a prosperous society

But, that may be akin to dialing back the ball.(;

[jeffwarne]

the same people who were declaring all is well in late 2007, and pushing the Dow to 14,000 are the ones who are hiding in their bunkers right now and missed a 100%+ runup in the Nasdaq,  a 90% in the Dow and a similar S&P gain-all in the last 22 months while the naysayers kept saying the sky was falling.

That's not true.

Many people were alarmed in 2007.
Many people had NO influence, no ability to choose their lot.
Pension funds were invested in the market, peoples life savings were invested.
Do you think they anticipated the crash ?
People smarter than all of us got burned.

As to the run-up, who amongst us knew when the market would bottom out.

Who amongst us took all of their money out at 14,000 and knew exactly when to throw it back in as the market continued to plummet ?

20-20 hindsight makes geniuses out of all of us.[/b]


Where would you rather be?  fall of 2007......................or now?

Depends upon the course of action you took or would take in 2007 and the course of action you elect now[/b]

Golf courses are struggling because most have failed business plans run by nonprofessionals, there are too many of them, and they borrowed like crazy when money was cheap and sense was short. Many will continue to struggle and not enough will go away due to the "labor of love" nature of the business, thus weighing down most for years to come.

That's pure nonsense.
Some clubs may have taken on unrealistic amounts of debt, but, they're in the minority.
Most clubs got hit because members dropped out because they got layed off, experienced pay reductions or lost money in investments.
If you look at the operations of clubs they reacted like most businesses and trimmed expenses.
The problem with clubs today is the same as the problem corporations are facing.
The CAN'T get increased revenue[/b]

Outside the golf world, I know lots of people who are prudently yet conservatively hiring, of course these are the same people who were prudently yet conservatively hiring and running their businesses the same way when there was dancing in the streets a few years ago.

Baloney, or Bologna.
If someone is operating their business exactly as they were 4 years ago, they've been doing something wrong, either four years ago or today.  When volume is heavy/increasing, you ramp up to do more business, to make more profits.  When volume is light/decreasing, you scale back and take a defensive position.  You don't run your business the same way irrespective of market conditions.[/b]

Are things perfect?-absolutely not.
but the trend is improving.
and by the way, things are never perfect.

Now that the leader of the people's republic has given up his class warfare rants, the best could be yet to come-not without the bumps in the road though. Improved productivity means many jobs are gone forever, it will take time to get back to full employment-and full employment may be a number some don't like 6-7%, but historically that's about where it used to be, and with the professional abusers out there, it'd be hard to get it much lower.

You have to bring back manufacturing if you want to create MEANINGFUL jobs.
A service industry society won't sustain a prosperous society

But, that may be akin to dialing back the ball.(;

Pat,
How do you get your emoticons to work? mine haven't worked for a month or so...

at least we agree on the ball!

[Patrick_Mucci]

Jeff

For the last month or so posting is a royal pain in the ass as the screen jumps back to the beginning once I type more than a few lines.

It must be a system error because my computer in Florida has the same problem.

For the emoticom, just type (  then ;; then ) and you'll get a smiley face

Ben and Ran,

What's wrong with the system ?

[Craig Sweet]

Jeff, seriously, you think drawing less than half your weekly pay (with a cap at around $450) is an incentive to NOT work at a full time job? Seriously?  Meanwhile the house payment stays the same every month....the insurance stays the same...the power bill stays the same....the food bill stays the same...the water bill stays the same....and on and on.

Yeah..sounds like unemployment is the cats meow!

[jeffwarne]

Jeff, seriously, you think drawing less than half your weekly pay (with a cap at around $450) is an incentive to NOT work at a full time job? Seriously?  Meanwhile the house payment stays the same every month....the insurance stays the same...the power bill stays the same....the food bill stays the same...the water bill stays the same....and on and on.

Yeah..sounds like unemployment is the cats meow!

Craig,
I believe it incentivizes people to not work unless they can make more than they would collecting unemployment and working off the books.
So if you were making $20 per hour ($800 weekly-taxes so say $600) and you can collect $400 from unemployment and make another $300 working 2 days a week off the books, why would you go back to the 40 hour week?

i.e. people won't take a job unless it ='s what they were making before which keeps them from working at all
no one's saying it's the cat's meow especially for people who who lose their jobs unexpectedly.
I'm just not sure a single person who works in golf in Vermont should collect unemployment for 6 months every year because he chose a 6 month job-and has the state mail his checks to Florida

[David_Tepper]

"US auto industry sees double-digit sales gains in January, signaling solid start to 2011"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-auto-industry-off-to-a-apf-3738894223.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=