If the current economic environment continues, will

[David_Elvins]

David,

   Stop reading that website; it will turn you into a pessimist.

Really, it's more optimistic than my outlook.

[Jud_T]

Narrator:   Chicken Little was in the woods one day when an acorn fell on her head.  It scared her so much she trembled all over.  She shook so hard, half her feathers fell out.
Chicken Little:   "Help! Help!  The sky is falling!  I have to go tell the king!"
Narrator:   So she ran in great fright to tell the king.  Along the way she met Henny Penny.
Henny Penny:  "Where are you going, Chicken Little?"
Chicken Little:   "Oh, help!  The sky is falling!"
Henny Penny:   "How do you know?"
Chicken Little:   "I saw it with  my own eyes, and heard it with my own ears, and part of it fell on my head!"
Henny Penny:  "This is terrible, just terrible!  We'd better hurry up."
Narrator:  So they both ran away as fast as they could.  Soon they met Ducky Lucky.
Ducky Lucky:   "Where are you going, Chicken Little and Henny Penny?"
Chicken Little & Henny Penny:  "The sky is falling!  The sky is falling!  We're going to tell the king!"
Ducky Lucky:  "How do you know?"
Chicken Little:  "I saw it with my own eyes, and heard it with my own ears, and part of it fell on my head."
Ducky Lucky:   "Oh dear, oh dear!  We'd better run!"
Narrator:   So they all ran down the road as fast as they could.  Soon they met Goosey Loosey walking down the roadside.
Goosey Loosey    "Hello there.  Where are you all going in such a hurry?"
Chicken Little:   "We're running for our lives!"
Henny Penny:  "The sky is falling!"
Ducky Lucky:   "And we're running to tell the king!"
Goosey Loosey:  "How do you know the sky is falling?"
Chicken Little:  "I saw it with  my own eyes, and heard it with my own ears, and part of it fell on my head!"
Goosey Loosey:    "Goodness!  Then I'd better run with you."
Narrator:   And they all ran in great fright across a field.  Before long they met Turkey Lurkey strutting back and forth..
Turkey Lurkey:    "Hello there, Chicken Little, Henny Penny, Ducky Lucky, and Goosey Loosey.  Where are you all going in such a hurry?"
Chicken Little:   "Help!  Help!"
Henny Penny:   "We're running for our lives!"
Ducky Lucky:   "The sky is falling!"
Goosey Loosey:   "And we're running to tell the king!"
Turkey Lurkey:   "How do you know the sky is falling?"
Chicken Little:   "I saw it with  my own eyes, and heard it with my own ears, and part of it fell on my head!"
Turkey Lurkey:   "Oh dear! I always suspected the sky would fall someday.  I'd better run with you."
Narrator:   So they ran with all their might, until they met Foxy Loxy.
Foxy Loxy:   "Well, well.  Where are you rushing on such a fine day?"
Chicken Little, Henny Penny, Ducky Lucky, Goosey Loosey, Turkey Lurkey (together)   "Help!  Help!"  It's not a fine day at all.  The sky is falling, and we're running to tell the king!"
Foxy Loxy:   "How do you know the sky is falling?"
Chicken Little:   "I saw it with  my own eyes, and heard it with my own ears, and part of it fell on my head!"
Foxy Loxy:    "I see.  Well then, follow me, and I'll show you the way to the king."
Narrator:    So Foxy Loxy led Chicken Little, Henny Penny, Ducky Lucky, Goosey Loosey, and Turkey Lurkey across a field and through the woods.  He led them straight to his den, and they never saw the king to tell him that  the sky is falling.

[David_Tepper]

"IBM's Profit Exceeds Expectations"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IBM-reports-rb-1466339167.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

"Apple's Quarterly Revenue Surges, Crushes Estimates"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Apples-quarterly-revenue-rb-4152728839.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

[Doug Siebert]

Back in the early 80s the US was done, manufacturing was leaving forever to Japan and our economy was in shambles.  We were like Rome, the empire was at an end.  Japan will lead the new empire.

Today, the US is done, manufacturing is leaving forever to China, and our economy is in shambles.  We are like Rome, the empire is at an end.  China will lead the new empire.

[mike_malone]

 Jud,

    The sky has fallen twice in ten years but the "denialists" have said "don't worry; it's just some fog that will clear". Then the authorities got huge blowers to blow the sky away and make it look like all is well. But once the blowers stop it will fall again. Chicken Little was wrong. Those that saw the dangers in 2000 and 2007 were correct. The underlying analysis that led the "realists" to see the credit crisis before it happened was their understanding that real estate prices were in a bubble and borrowing had reached a level that would be destructive. Many knew the securitization binge would implode Wall Street.

   The same analysis continues to believe we have only kicked the can down the road and that nothing was solved. Could you tell me what is wrong with this analysis?

[Craig Sweet]

When the textile mills closed in the Northeast and moved south we were told it was for cheap labor and if they didnt move toward cheaper labor a t shirt would cost $30

When the textile mills left the south for Asia and Central America we were told it was for cheap labor and if they didnt move toward cheap labor a t shirt would cost $30

Today, a t shirt cost $30 and labor is a small cost of manufacturing that shirt....And the textile workers in the Noetheast and the south are now working at WalMart and barely making enough to buy a t shirt.

Nike shoes costs more today than they did 40 years ago, yet the cost of manufacturing them is a fraction of what it was 40 years ago....why arent they cheaper today if labor costs were the big concern 40 years ago...

At some point private clubs need to take a serious look at their priorities  and make some hard choices....Is it golf they want or a fine dining experience....is it a high level of course conditioning, or is something less acceptible?   Do they want a consistant membership or the prestige of being exclusive and expensive? 

Every individual has had to make some difficult choices in this economy...many have been making these difficult decisions for more than a decade as their paychecks dwindles and their expenses have risen...why should the private membership club be any different?

[jeffwarne]

Back in the early 80s the US was done, manufacturing was leaving forever to Japan and our economy was in shambles.  We were like Rome, the empire was at an end.  Japan will lead the new empire.

Today, the US is done, manufacturing is leaving forever to China, and our economy is in shambles.  We are like Rome, the empire is at an end.  China will lead the new empire.

Is our economy really in shambles?

not too long ago 5% was considered full employment (the theory was 5% didn't actually want a job and many/most job openings went begging)
now we're at 10% so that puts us at 5% who actually are unemployed and looking.
hardly "in shambles"

No doubt we are going through a structural shift, and many got caught in the downdraft and mortgage mess, but I find it hard to believe anybody would prefer to be in China over the US for the next 50 years.
The same nonsense was being spouted about Japan in the 80's.

[Jud_T]

Mike,

Is the can you speak of the deficit?  Well yes that needs to be addressed.  But we have time as long as it's taken seriously now.  The wrong answer is to do what Illinois just did and simply jack up taxes 66% rather than actually making some hard choices on spending...Do you think since the sky has fallen twice in the last decade that it's therefore more or less likely to fall again in the next decade?

[David_Tepper]

"Banks are saying fewer consumer loans are going bad"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Banks-say-fewer-consumer-apf-1826753906.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

[jeffwarne]

edit

[mike_malone]

 We don't need to be in a shambles to have serious long term intractable problems which cripple growth when incomes aren't growing, debt can't grow and needs to contract, and the population is aging. These problems have been growing for a generation but we have been able to avoid paying the piper. I'm convinced we will have to pay the piper now . So, let's get on with it.

    There doesn't seem to be a time comparable to this since 1940, so call it what you will but it it serious.

[Sean_A]

Mayday

+1 

Jeff

I never believe unemployment figures because they don't include sections of the population such as university students.  If we didn't have such a huge state supported molly coddling univeristy system those figures would be significantly higher. 

Ciao

[Mike Sweeney]

    There doesn't seem to be a time comparable to this since 1940, so call it what you will but it it serious.

What is similar now to 1940?

[mike_malone]

 It isn't 1940 per se ; it's that nothing similar has happened in many important areas since that era.

    The level of long term unemployed is unprecedented in the survey which goes back to the forties; The debt to gdp levels achieved around WWII are exceeded now and importantly it has peaked and the problems of handling the debt are in our face. Consumer debt increased every year since the 40's until 2008 when it declined for the first time and markedly. The public's opinion of Wall Street rivals the post depression era which spawned Glass-Steagall. You could say the government's /Fed's involvement in the economy hasn't been seen since then .

    The evolving disenchantment with stocks , in my opinion , will eventually end in a similar way that the 40's began----the average holding period expanding from much less than a year to many years.

  Most importantly the social mood seems to harken back to depression and early post depression levels.

     There are differences---- more dependence on service industries and an older population.

   What seems remarkable to me is the major impact on the economy of the baby boom. We have seen its positive impact on housing, consumer demand, savings, investing, education. Now we will see its negative impacts on all of those items while the debt load and entitlements are oppressive.

I reject the idea that recognizing these things is "negative". It happens to be our state of affairs which has rather straightforward solutions.

      As a result I expect golf clubs to be challenged like they haven't been since then.

    I won't say any more on this since it really is hard to keep it connected to gca and I made my point repeatedly about the similarity to now and that dark age for golf clubs.

[Jud_T]

Here you go Mike:

http://www.usnews.com/news/washington-whispers/articles/2011/01/20/house-gop-lists-25-trillion-in-spending-cuts

[Malcolm Mckinnon]

I'm thinking that I will need a golf club that is  in an easily defended position that is bridge access only such as Oyster Harbors or Spring Island.

When the inevitable defaults occur at the federal, state, local and personal levels, credit totally dries up, the dollar tanks and angry hoards are wandering the countryside a la Mad Max I can still enjoy a game.

[Jud_T]

And your clubs may come in handy to fend off the conquering hordes....I think some of you guys should start a GCA militia....

[Mike Sweeney]

It isn't 1940 per se ; it's that nothing similar has happened in many important areas since that era.

Mayday,

A little perspective here as today marks the 50th Anniversary of Kennedy's inauguration:

The United States considered attacking Cuba via air and sea, and settled on a military "quarantine" of Cuba. The U.S. announced that it would not permit offensive weapons to be delivered to Cuba and demanded that the Soviets dismantle the missile bases already under construction or completed in Cuba and remove all offensive weapons. The Kennedy administration held a slim hope that the Kremlin would agree to their demands, and expected a military confrontation. On the Soviet end, Premier Nikita Khrushchev wrote in a letter to Kennedy that his quarantine of "navigation in international waters and air space" constituted "an act of aggression propelling humankind into the abyss of a world nuclear-missile war."

The Soviets publicly balked at the U.S. demands, but in secret back-channel communications initiated a proposal to resolve the crisis. The confrontation ended on October 28, 1962, when President John F. Kennedy and United Nations Secretary-General U Thant reached a public and secret agreement with Khrushchev. Publicly, the Soviets would dismantle their offensive weapons in Cuba and return them to the Soviet Union, subject to United Nations verification, in exchange for a U.S. public declaration and agreement to never invade Cuba. Secretly, the U.S. agreed that it would dismantle all U.S.-built Thor and Jupiter IRBMs deployed in Europe and Turkey.

I don't know about you, but dropping a few golf club memberships or declaring personal bankruptcy is alot better than living in an "abyss of a world nuclear-missile war." It may not be pleasant but nobody is building bomb shelters so while it may not be "similar" in your words, I would argue it is a better alternative than living with the threat of the Cold War.

[JC Jones]

Cold war was a fiction created to stimulate two major world economies.

[Mike Sweeney]

Cold war was a fiction created to stimulate two major world economies.

I am too young to make that statement so.......

[JC Jones]

Cold war was a fiction created to stimulate two major world economies.

I am too young to make that statement so.......

You are anything but young.

[mike_malone]

https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Breakfast_with_Dave_012111.pdf

 An addendum to Jud's Republican plan. BTW you can sign up for his daily reflections at no cost. It may be the best deal anywhere.

[Jud_T]

Dude,

David Rosenberg?  I know that guy. He has thought the world was coming to an end since he was in the womb.  Now I know exactly where you're coming from...

[Rob Bice]

Dude,

David Rosenberg?  I know that guy. He has thought the world was coming to an end since he was in the womb.  Now I know exactly where you're coming from...

My thoughts exactly.  Analysts who offer advice who aren't making investment decisions tend to paint themselves into a corner where they are unable to change course without upsetting their clients.  Clients who pay their bills.  True of Bulls and Bears alike.  Meredith Whiteny comes to mind - we'll see how her muni call plays out.  Her 300+ bank failure call of 2010 was a little aggressive.

[David_Tepper]

Even "the other" David Tepper (the multi-billionaire) is bullish!!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Tepper-No-More-Free-Ride-But-cnbc-1876474233.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=