If the current economic environment continues, will

[Patrick_Mucci]

David Elvins,

Could you cite where Craig Sweet limited his comment on war to Iraq ?

[Patrick_Mucci]

Sean Arble,

I've always thought that Congress needed more accountants and business people and fewer lawyers.

With the insane bickering that's going on, we'll never restore our economy on a fast track.

The American people want jobs, they want businesses to flourish, to expand, spend, invest and hire, but first, Congress and State legislatures have to work in concert toward that end.  Unfortunately, I don't see that happening.

I see the continuance and escalation of class warfare.

America has lost some of those principles which made us great.
Our grandparents and great grandparents had it right.
We don't.

I've always had a simple mantra.

If business is good, labor will be good and if Business and Labor are good, the tax base will be good, allowing for a strong America and reasonable social programs for those who are less fortunate.

Penalize business and you harm employment

End of rant

[Chris Wirthwein]

My heart aches for those poor rich people that didn't "earn" as much these past two years. Thank god our benevolent government has been doing all it can to help them out in their time of need.

I hope you all will say a prayer of thanks to Mr. Obama for helping the unfortunate wealthy by doing all he could to help them avoid a crippling 3% increase in their taxes...and for his hard work to keep regulation of their struggling banks and finacial institutions to a minimum, and for the good sense to help those struggling insurance companies by insisting we all have to buy their health  insuramce policies.

Oh, and lastly, praise Mr. Obama and Jesus for this holy crusade so we can keep this war economy humming along!

Craig - I'm gonna help you out with your math. Three percentage points added to the top tax bracket is nearly a 10% increase in marginal tax rate.

You really believe those TelePrompTer readers when they tell you it's 3%? And I bet you believe increasing taxes nearly 10% on the nation's producers and job creators is the way out of our economic mess. Golf will not be saved by punishing the nation's achievers. All become losers and suffer under redistribution schemes.

[David_Tepper]

"Could dividend returns be higher because stock prices are lower"

Pat Mucci -

Dividends are higher  on an absolute basis because companies are raising the amount they pay in dividends. Dividends yields are, in many cases lower because stock prices are higher, as we have had an enormous stock market rally over the past 7 quarters. Did you miss it? Do you understand the difference between the amount of a dividend and the dividend yield of a stock?

You last were bitching and moaning about the economy several months ago. According to the current issue of BARRON'S, in the last four months of the year, the stock market (S&P 500) was up 20%. In the last 120 quarters (30 years), there have only been 16 quarters where the stock market has been up 10% or more and two of those quarters were the 3rd & 4th quarter of 2010. Indexes that track the performance of smaller publicly-held companies, such as the Russell 2000, are up even more. If that is not an enormous expression of confidence in the future, I don't know what is.

In addition, according to Bloomberg News, the CEO Confidence Index, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index are as high or higher than they have been in 2 years.

I expect this year will offer better economic news and more subdued stock market returns. Regardless, many, many people are indeed richer than they were 24 months ago.

With regards to what companies are doing with their stronger balance sheets, we are seeing a marked pick-up in acquisition and merger activity. Here are just some of the M&A headlines from the past 5 days.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/category-m-a/

If corporate CEO's and their boards did not have confidence, do you really think we would be seeing this much activity?

As always, growth in jobs and employment will be a lagging indicator.      
 
I have been a professional in the investment business for 30 years now. You are free to accept or reject the information and opinions I have offered. I could care less.

But, I would ask you one thing. Be sure to let us know the day you turn bullish on America. That will be the day I start selling all my stocks.

DT

  

[David_Elvins]

David Elvins,

Could you cite where Craig Sweet limited his comment on war to Iraq ?

I could write something about how the war on Iraq accounts for 70% of American Millitary expenditure since 9/11, but I don't want to appear like I am sticking up for Craig's comments (sorry Craig  ).

[Craig Sweet]

Chris Wirthein....first of all I do neot buy for one minute the myth that lower tax rates lead to more jobs and more revenue. The past history of this country does not support that at all. Second...it is horseshit to claim the wealthy are the sole producers and job creators...last time I looked no rich man dug the gold from the mine....and no rich man took his tax cut and ran right out and created a job.

I am far from rich, but I have started a couple of pretty successful small businesses,  and THE ONLY time I created a job was when there was more demand for my service than I could handle myself.  As it has been pointed out, tax rates are at all time lows and have been for going down for over 30 years, yet we lost over 8 million jobs in the first decade of this century. Now, corporations in America are sitting on over two trillion dollars in cash, yet very few are creating jobs. Why is that? Taxes too high?

[David_Elvins]

And I bet you believe increasing taxes nearly 10% on the nation's producers and job creators is the way out of our economic mess.

Increases to the top marginal tax rate seem to be strongly linked to the US's strong recovery from the economic mess of the First World War, the Great Depression, and the Second World War.

[David_Tepper]

It's even getting (a little) better in the Hamptons!

http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/07/big-deal-a-slow-recovery-in-the-hamptons/?hp

[Craig Sweet]

Pat...regarding your 9-11 comment. All the perpertrators of 9-11 are dead. All the " master minds" behind the attack have been killed or jailed with the exception of bin Laden.

We have invaded, and set up what appear to be permenent military bases in two Muslim countries....one that had nothing to do with 9-11 and  another that (according to the CIA Director) has less than 60 Al Qeida hiding there. We have spent trillions of dollars...off the books on these two wars....killed and displaced millions of innocent people...at what point have we had a response to 9-11 that satisfies you?

[Charlie Goerges]

All I can say is thank FUCKING God we have so many GCAers working so diligently to fix this problem.

[Sean_A]

Sean -

I made no comment regarding how Ford earned their sizable profit, I simply stated that they did.

If you go to page 8 of Jim Paulson's economy commentary I linked, you will see that the decline in auto sales in 2008-09 is not materially worse than the recessions of 1982 and 1991 and that the current recovery in auto sales is very much in line with the rebounds from those two prior recessions.

Maybe we truly are the "me" generation. We even think our recessions are bigger and badder than others!

DT      

David

You missed the points.  Ford is in huge debt.  Yes, the past 18 months have been encouraging, but debt is debt.  Second, when companies like Ford make less cars they hire less people and thus the bottom line of our economy is negatively effected.  It would seem people are getting carried away because Ford is still trading - my how perceptions have changed in my lifetime.  We also must remember that Ford made right decisions at the right time and got a bit lucky at a time when nobody could see what was on the horizon.  The Toyota fiasco is something that fell in Ford's lap.  They borrowed heavily in 2006 to re-organize and thus didn't need a Federal bail-out a few years ago - that brought some goodwill.  They have streamlined their product(s) incredibly.  Last but not least, Ford sells good products.  It never made sense to me when folks know they have relatives, neighbours and friends working for US auto companies to then go out and buy a foreign car.  But then that is the cultural shift in America at work.  People see their phone, car, clothes, laptop etc as an statement of who they are.  Taken this at face value it would seem Americans think more highly of Germans, Japanese and the so called rising stars then do about themselves.  I can recall a time when this wasn't the case and until that cultural shift reshifts, the US will continue a slow lingering slide.  Afterall, if Ameicans won't buy American why should anybody else?  Of course, we have nobody to blame but ourselves.  At least Ford has done their part, now it is time for the American consumer to do their's. 

Ciao

[Jud_T]

Sean,

When Ford makes a better car than BMW, then I'll happily buy one. 

[Sean_A]

Sean,

When Ford makes a better car than BMW, then I'll happily buy one. 

Jud

While Ford and BMW (and many other premium brands) don't directly compete in the market except for in a few areas, Ford holds its own.  Visit the JD Power site to dispell some old myths.  Ford was rated top in three categories and did very well in a fourth.  Plus (I was only using Ford as catchall for the Big 3) three other categories were won by Chevy, Cadillac and GMC.  I would also add that the same engineering which has landed the Focus and Fusion Stateside also produced the Mondeo which gets very good reviews in Europe (it isn't sold in North America).  BMW has been struggling with quality control for sometime now - where have you been?  Okay, so that probably means you will only get 175K out of a Beemer with some problems, but I reckon a Ford will deliver 125K/10 years problems free if you take care of it and I expect it is quite a bit cheaper to its BMW counterpart which doen't really exist.  But lets face it, most folks (especially Americans) buy a badge/image and BMW has a good image regardless of what is actually being produced on the factory floor.  This is what I was talking about before, many people care more about their image then they do about making the US work well again.

Ciao   

[Sean_A]

but I reckon a Ford will deliver 125K/10 years problems free if you take care of it

205,000 miles, 12 years...problem free...still going strong.

Kelly

I am wondering about my Mondeo.  It will soon be sold because my wife wants a Jag which is fair enough since she works for Jag.  It has 139,000 and is 9 years old, but I never had a problem with it.  A few little things have gone wrong such as the glove box, but the core of the car is fine.  Its the sort of car that doesn't do anything brilliantly, but is a mid size family car that does a lot of things very well.  Its the best car I have owned since my Chevy truck, but image is a tough cookie to crack and Ford is only halfway up the slope.  The good news is I now get my wife's hand me down Mondeo (Mark III) with only 61,000 miles, but the bad news is its a diesel and I will likely put petrol in it one day.  I will not put petrol in my diesel.  I will not put petrol in my diesel. I will not... 

Ciao 

[Jud_T]

Guys,
If all that mattered was value and reliability I'd take the bus.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Pat...regarding your 9-11 comment. All the perpertrators of 9-11 are dead. All the " master minds" behind the attack have been killed or jailed with the exception of bin Laden.

So, we have nothing to worry about ?

Then why has the screening process at every airport been increased ?

But, you didn't answer the question, you deliberately avoided it.

Please answer the question,  What should we have done immediately following 9-11 in Afghanistan ?

Is it your belief that 60 guys are the only ones aiding and abetting OBL ?
Or, is the threat far more extensive ?

We have invaded, and set up what appear to be permenent military bases in two Muslim countries....one that had nothing to do with 9-11 and  another that (according to the CIA Director) has less than 60 Al Qeida hiding there.


Could you prodice the "60" citation for us ?

Who harbored, nurtured and funded Al Queda in Afghanistan ?

If there are only 60 of them left, as you maintain, why are we still in lock down mode when we travel in or to America ?

We have spent trillions of dollars...off the books on these two wars....killed and displaced millions of innocent people...at what point have we had a response to 9-11 that satisfies you?

Millions of people ?
Please stop spouting your extremist views

Lastly, what's the non-combat cost of operating the military ?
Had we not sent troops to Afghanistan, would there be no expense associated with maintaining a military ?

Put another way, what's the incremental cost for our presence in Afghanistan ?

Lastly, with Pakistan having Nukes, should we ignore the influence of the Taliban and Al Queda in that part of the world ?

You're quick to criticize but I never see you offering solutions to the problems we face

[Lou_Duran]

The "facts" depicted in the charts speak for themselves.  The arguments against markets and individual choice are unimpeachable.  Discard my erroneous beliefs.  I am sold: 90% marginal tax rates on all income over $25k/year + BUY AMERICA ONLY for the next 100 years (LONG TERM PLAN) + free healthcare + an electric Vega or Pinto in every garage + "make love not war" = happiness, egalitarian bliss, economic Nirvana.  Maybe free marijuana and Mad Dog too while we're at it.

Who needs golf anyways?

[Sean_A]

Guys,
If all that mattered was value and reliability I'd take the bus.

Excellent, make sure the bus is American made - tee hee.

Lou

Nothing wrong with choice, but it doesn't do much good to send dollars Germany or Japan. 

Ciao

[Jud_T]

How about making the best product that your mates simply can't live without? Look at Apple.  Last I heard that was still an American company...

[Lou_Duran]

Lou

Nothing wrong with choice, but it doesn't do much good to send dollars Germany or Japan.  

Ciao

Unless you are German or Japanese.  And not very good for Americans either who enjoy and benefit from German and Japanese products, or who export products and services to Germany and Japan.  Are you really that confident that we- I am assuming that you still consider yourself to be an American given your arguments, though you choose to live in England- could survive a trade war with Germany, China, and the rest of Asia?  Talk about stirring the pot of the type of war that really breaks things!

[Sean_A]

Lou

Nothing wrong with choice, but it doesn't do much good to send dollars Germany or Japan.  

Ciao

Unless you are German or Japanese.  And not very good for Americans either who enjoy and benefit from German and Japanese products, or who export products and services to Germany and Japan.  Are you really that confident that we- I am assuming that you still consider yourself to be an American given your arguments, though you choose to live in England- could survive a trade war with Germany, China, and the rest of Asia?  Talk about stirring the pot of the type of war that really breaks things!

Lou

Well, we essentially won a trade war in WWII wth the Japanese.  Hell yes, I would have been and was very isolationist.  However, we have now given up our means to fight a trade war.  We now have no choice but to dance to a tune somebody else will increasing create.  Your path of open markets will become more and more a one way street.  I don't see anyway out unless we either get rid of a considerably number of people or accept that a new decent living is now far below what it once was.  Neither option is particularly appealing, but I reckon a lower standard of living is the obvious choice - no?  Its a hard sell and one that no politician has broached as of yet.  The problem is that sell takes an honest and intelligent politician with more than party loyalty driving him.  American politics (nor are the people) isn't ready for that.  We will still look for a shootem' up solution for a while longer because that is all we know.

Ciao   

[Craig Van Egmond]

How about making the best product that your mates simply can't live without? Look at Apple.  Last I heard that was still an American company...

And they make all their products in China.. Same with Nike.

Ford trucks are made in Canada... Honda Civics are made in Ohio.. Nissans in Tennessee.. etc......

Hard to say what is American anymore.

There are some areas that Americans still dominate like Technology, Big Pharma, etc.. but for how long?

[Jud_T]

Well, I hear they're hiring caddies in China....3 square meals and all the Tsingtao you can drink....

[JC Jones]

Do Americans know how to make anything?

[Craig Van Egmond]

Do Americans know how to make anything?

Golf Courses!!