Jim, Ok I'll bite,
Strictly theoretically, playing the appropriate tees, I still will not carry the ball 245 yards. So, I could try and aim for that bunker, but if the turf is firm, and I hit it straight, I would likely find it, unless the rough in front, would stop my ball from bouncing, or rolling, in it. Now, if I hit my proper fade drive, I should end up in as ideal position as possible, after reading Rory's description of how the slope of the ground will get me to the center, or right center of the fairway. I assume I'd have over 215 yards, if I'm short of the elbow, and, 180 if I get even, or, ahead of it. From there, my options are to try and hit my slinging hook 4 or 5 iron, likely ending up left side of the green, either short or pin high, but surely past the left front bunker. From 215, I could try to hit my hybrid 1 iron with a fade push, over the front left bunker. If I'm playing smart, I don't try to get on the green in Regulation. When I say don't try, I mean I choose a club that will leave me where I can mange the next shot, from the apron. From the picture, The only place that looks absolutely dead ,is in that right green side bunker, in what appears to be native grasses growing in the bunker.
Since the hole is the 14th, I should have some clue as to what kind of a day I'm having. Hopefully, making the correct choice and execution to avoid the dreaded double or worse.
This is likely the crux in our mis-understanding. Yes, I'm capable of hitting the ball like a 2 handicap, But, I'm also capable of hitting like a 22. The big question I have to ask myself, at this moment in the round, is, what's most likely? The factors that go into that answer are many. Who I'm playing with, and how I'm feeling, are the two that are likely most relevant.
My feeling is our mis understanding is based on our resective expectations. You have much higher ones, than I do. But, I have a better ability to deal with the adversity when things don't go as planned, because I have so much more experience at that.
Ok, I'm just rambling now, throwing out information for discussion purposes. What's weird is the more I describe, the less I understand our mis-understanding.