A question for our economic experts...How much do you believe the numbers quantify the cycle rather than simply reflecting the major changes in the underlying fundamentals?
In other words and admittedly with no research, it seems the major economic expansions come not from "the numbers" but from some major development (e.g. industrial revolution, World War II, democatization of computers, the Internet, true globalization, fall of Soviet bloc communism, etc.). The 80's and 90's had several (the last four of the ones I mentioned somewhat built on each other) of these major changes isolated over the course of 20 years. People would have made money investing no matter what the economic condition was prior to these dramatic changes.
So, for there to be true economic expansion where pretty much everybody wins in one way or another, my hypothesis is that we need at least one fundamental shift to come about that changes the way businesses operate or opens new markets that didn't previously exist. Until that happens, it looks like a zero sum game of dollars being moved around with some winners and some losers.
Thoughts???