The Death of the Big Design Firm

[Andrew Bosworth]

Tom,

When I said compete, my idea was not so much that you and I are on the same level (FAR from it!), but rather there are X number of projects available at any one time and X number of architects trying to secure those jobs - thus, competing for what work is available.  I think Ian hit it on the head earlier when he made the suggestion of focusing on a regional level.  I am working in sales right now and find that the prospects I call on closer to home are often times more receptive than those a few hours away.  The product may be exactly the same, however, potential clients want to feel a connection with a local guy.  My hope is that this may correspond with potential golf clients too - though maybe I should buy Rosetta Stone and start learning Mandarin!

[Peter Pallotta]

A fine thread.

A few years ago, it struck me that the world doesn't need any more of anything.

It doesn't need any more writers, it doesn't need any more lawyers, or athletes, or jazz musicians, or movie stars, or even golf course architects.

And I found myself thinking - well, perhaps it needs me, as I am especially talented and good-natured.

But, nope - I realized that even if my self-congratulations were true/warranted, it wouldn't change the fact the the world doesn't need more of me.  

And then an economic down-turn comes and this thought/fact suddenly seems to loom large. But it's only a seeming, i.e. it is no more true today than it was 7 years ago.

And so I think the appropriate/healthy reaction to this fact should also be the same now as it was 7 years ago, i.e. to say, in essence: I can't be concerned about what the world seems to need or want; I want to add THIS to the world (a piece of music, a golf course, a legal brief) and I am going to do it.

There will no doubt be ups and downs in the pursuit -- but at least there won't be any more illusions.

Pete

[Mike Nuzzo]

Andrew

Reading Outliers won't exactly help your pursuit....  the theme of timing anyway.
The other stuff may.

And yes you are competing with Tom and every other big and small firm.

Ian & others:
I haven't been crying over the death of the big firm.
Has a big firm ever helped golf?

[JC Jones]

it doesn't need any more lawyers,

Pete

You bite your tongue.

[Jeffrey Stein]

To All the good advice from this thread, thank you!  I can tell its going to be a long journey and one that seems to be moving fast.  I'm extremely grateful to those who are willing to offer their years of experience and leadership as an example for me to bounce my own ideas against.  Every day I continue to follow this dream makes me excited for tomorrow.

[Brian Phillips]

The dirt architects will survive because they are grounded...the office architects wont unless they go back and learn what dirt is...touch it...feel it...and sweat while you do it.

I'm not sure about irrigation designers unless they can handle no greens loops and 90' head spacing. I enjoyed it best when Toro/Rainbird designed for free if they got the contract.

I have made sooooo many mistakes with our company it is unbelievable.  I wanted to be big, as big as it could get and we were getting there...and then the crash hit....now I wish I had not wanted to be big....I pumped a lot of profits back into advertising and marketing and this helped us get our name around and we picked up a hell of a lot of work in Norway, Portugal and Scotland. 

However, there is no point having lots of contracts such as our Portugal project that is just treading water.  Nice healthy fee that both parties are happy with but nothing moving at the moment....that puts a strain on the budgets that you plan in your head for the coming year....

It is funny Paul that you mention about dirt architects....today I jumped on the bunker rake because the client has been using a local contractor to do the shaping and the greenkeeper has been helping out.  That is the team....one local excavator man and the greenkeeper building a USGA green that they have never done before.  I am contracted to do 4 visits......I have been there nearly everyday work day for 3 weeks teaching them how to get it done.

Today I just had to jump on the rake to get it they way I wanted it.....I got fed up of pointing.



The tighter the economy the more and more local guys will be used instead of true shapers.

http://www.borregaardgk.no/index.php?mod=one&id=25429&PHPSESSID=c5f487da178498909b30f32b891b792b

By the way, Rainbird and TORO in Norway still do all the design work for free if you ask them nicely enough.

[Jaeger Kovich]

I love threads like this! Last time I started one of these, I considered some of the advice laid out by the pros, added a few ideas of my own and worked real hard, and what do you know, but good things happened. There are a lot of good ideas all over this thread.

Thanks

Jaeger

[Jaeger Kovich]

Not trying to side track to much... How much longer will the ASGCA last if these "predictions" come true?

[Tom_Doak]

Jaeger:

A lot of the guys who will survive are in the ASGCA -- including Ian and Bill Coore and Gil Hanse.  Others are not, of course, but I suspect we're still in the minority.

But, they may have a few unemployed in their ranks as well.  Of course, at some point some of those guys will stop paying their dues, and then the numbers won't look as bad.

[Randy Thompson]

To all you young whipper snappers,
I think its too late for China, every Tom dick and Harry are there and there are lots that have been there for more than five years. Take a gamble, look which ´country is on the rise, Brazil just moved up to the 8th economic world power, the olympics are going to be there in 2016 with GOLF, the PGA tour is negociating taking over the rights and development of the South American tour and the women are GORGEOUS and Potuguese will be much eaiser to learn then chinese, the food, the beer...this is a no brainer, if your young and single. Put your clothes in a back pack, kiss mom good bye and get to the airport and take the first available flight to Brazil with a return ticket for 2017! Think and act positive, make the return flight booked in first class! The rest of you older, qualified, excellent, competent architects, please stay where you are!!!

[paul cowley]

Randy...my backpack has been at the foot of my bed [when not in use] probably before you were born....40 years anyway.
I appreciate your enthusiasm as my own...but it doesn't always equate to talent or experience. But we all have to start someplace and good luck with your journey!

[Randy Thompson]

Randy...my backpack has been at the foot of my bed [when not in use] probably before you were born....40 years anyway.
I appreciate your enthusiasm as my own...but it doesn't always equate to talent or experience. But we all have to start someplace and good luck with your journey!

Paul,
Re-read my thread, I think your a little confused, this is what I am recommending to some of the young guys, I am not young, to give you an idea, we have the same color hair! I just checked out your web site, tobacco road looks awesome, congrats! Make sure that back pack of yours stays near the bed please! I agree with what your saying about talent and experience and that is why I am saying you have to be at the right place at the right time and you have to prepare for it and plant a seed, it doesn´t happen by luck. I planted my first seed twenty years ago here in South America. Been watering and fertilizing ever since and waiting for the plant to grow and here I am still waiting patiently. I am starting to here some rumbling and it could be that a plant it is about to break out of the ground, 20 years waiting for the damm seed to germinate. If S.A. grows into potential hot spot, hope I don´t get accused of being in the right spot at the right time, but lets face it it could happens. ASi es la vida!

[Jeffrey Stein]

Randy,

If you are saying what I think you are saying then there are probably beautiful women tanning on Brazil's links-land.  Someone should definately build a golf course near those women!  Can you be any more specific on the 'emerging plant' which you allude to?

[paul cowley]

You are right Randy...I was confusing you...good luck and I hope you catch that wave that you have been working and waiting for!

[Scott Macpherson]

I'm not one of offer much advice. But I'm a glass half full guy, and I believe, and have always believed that 'If you are good enough, you will make it.' You have to believe in yourself. Of course luck plays a part, but if you know want you want, educate yourself, chase hard, be nice to people along the way, and never believe you know it all, then good things WILL happen.

I am not quite sure what the definition is of 'making it'. Is it getting your first full design? Is it doing 10 courses? Is it being Tom Doak? Everyone has there own definition, but if you love GCA even building one green makes your soul sing.


scott

[Tom_Doak]

I am not quite sure what the definition is of 'making it'. Is it getting your first full design? Is it doing 10 courses? Is it being Tom Doak?


scott

Scott:

By one of your definitions, I had it made the day I was born! 

When I was 18, Geoff Cornish and Pete Dye were the only two to answer my letters about how to pursue a career in golf architecture.  At the end of his letter, Mr. Cornish said it was a difficult and competitive business, but there was always room for people with real talent.  He was kind enough to leave out the part where you have to be crazy enough to believe you have that talent, but Mr. Cornish has always been a gentleman. 

[Mike Nuzzo]

Scott

Making it is having a sustainable business.

Cheers

[Gary Daughters]

Scott,

What you say is simple and powerful.  Thanks for chiming in.

One of the titans of my business was kind enough once to offer some simple yet sage advice to me, which went something like "you can stick it out or you can move on, but whatever you do find something that will give you some joy."  I did stick it out and on most days I'd say I'm glad I did.  If nothing else, I've never been burdened by "what if....."

Good luck, fellas.

[Jeff_Brauer]

Mike,

Sustainable will be a challenge for a few years.

That said, and to your point, I have fed my family for 26 years in this biz, which I have considered a success.  Ups and downs, and it would be nice to have a few top 100 courses on the resume, but literally a few million rounds of golf have probably been enjoyed on my courses.  Nothing to sneeze at!

[Randy Thompson]

Scott,
At first yes the soul starts to sing and will continues to sing throughout your career but all of sudden you no longer consider it to be, "making it"! Your definition than becomes as Mike has stated, having a sustainable business! Once you have that, the definition changes again. At this point in my life the definition becomes having sufficient clientele demand that your CHOOSE only the right clients, with the right land and the right budget to allow you produce the maximum that your capable of delivering and having the luxury of walking away from situations that do not full fill this criteria. If you are fortunate enough to achieve this level, you should also be able to charge accordingly and therefore provide for all your loved ones thier neccisities and desires without day to day stress or worries because you feel that your not meeting all those obligations. You will also be able to keep all your talented individuals involved in the company, directly or indirectly in order to continue producing the best possible product for the client and the eventual and everlasting golfing public. Life is good and I am extremley fortunate but when will I and most humans stop imagining and saying but, it could be better. I feel, what we feel and think is creating our lives and sometimes this attitude of never being enough is counter productive to our happiness but it also keeps us striving and motivated towards excellence.

Jeffery,
Why are you still posting and asking more questions, kiss mom good-bye and get to the airport!

[Tom_Doak]

Randy:

Jeffrey has already kissed mom good-bye and been in Oregon and New Zealand for the last year and a half.

[Mike_Young]

Mike,

Sustainable will be a challenge for a few years.

That said, and to your point, I have fed my family for 26 years in this biz, which I have considered a success.  Ups and downs, and it would be nice to have a few top 100 courses on the resume, but literally a few million rounds of golf have probably been enjoyed on my courses.  Nothing to sneeze at!

agree....I'm just trying to decide if I want to be a fourth tier or fifth tier archie....I think when I break the top 200 barrier for my home state I will be there

[Randy Thompson]

Randy:

Jeffrey has already kissed mom good-bye and been in Oregon and New Zealand for the last year and a half.

Tom,
but he is not in Brazil yet or do you think Oregon or New Zealand are about to explode, two great places to gain experience and build a foundation, now put it to work. Acutally I don´t know his situation and you might and maybe he needs more foundation before starting the actual house. My point only being, when a hot spot develops, there is sufficient advantage to be living there and having been living there. Like Paul stated, CATCH the WAVE, if your not in the ocean that wave will come and go! Of course, if you do not know how to surf, not much point.

[Adrian_Stiff]

Low overheads are the key to keeping any business alive in this gloom, sadly I think worse is to come, so be prepared for doing something else if your aGCA. Not too many golf courses have actually closed yet but no normal person is thinking of building a golf course right now and when it kicks off again, there will be plenty of pieces to pick up from the ones not done from 2006-2010, excluding Asia and I dont know enough about USA, I think there is not much point in being a golf course architect until about 2020, this mess is set for 10 years before  resorts will restart, property could be effectively static and like it or not those are key indicators. Horrible to say it but anyone thinking of starting a carreer in golf course architecture at the moment is crazy, but if you do, go East.

[Ian Andrew]

I think worse is to come

I don’t.

I saw the last horrible cycle in Canada (wasn’t as pronounced in the US) and this is no different. The talk, the emotion, the reaction is all the same. The throw up point is almost two years behind us, now its survival for the next few years (at least). It also begins a process of survival of the fittest which is what took place last time too.

I find myself surrounded by a series of new players that have emerged with larger companies getting smaller. They are not all going to survive. The next struggle will be the level of competition for projects.

I think this market will be very stagnant for some time, but new projects will get built during this period a few at a time. If you’re looking for the last decade, it’s not going to come back in the foreseeable future. If history is good teacher, it may take 20 years to return.

I think there is not much point in being a golf course architect until about 2020

It will be hard to sustain a golf design business, but there is work out there. It’s just not as high profile as the past decade that’s all. It all comes down to what you like to do. If it’s only new course construction, you are best to move on.

…anyone thinking of starting a career in golf course architecture at the moment is crazy, but if you do, go East.

You better know what you’re getting into. In China jobs change hands a lot, since the ethics are different and architects often have issues with getting paid. Our rules are not their rules. I think that could be a worst case scenario for someone starting out.