He will come to 18th on Friday with the cut in play.
I would give up to 7-5 if I was the book, i would shop for 2-1 or greater if I were the bettor.
BTW: This will be the most watched Master's Friday in the history of its 4-day coverage era, if he makes the cut, it will be the most watched Master's ever. If he wins...
He will not win
My prediction is based on his previous first appearances after long layoffs...the WGC Match play last year after knee rehab (sloppy second rd loss to Tim Clark) and Winged Foot 06 after Earl passed away (missed cut).
This return has the added components of facing the public after a public scandal as well as the notion that during the previous absences there was a pointed regimen preparing (golf-wise) for the return. I get the sense that he's cramming this time.
Brad Faxon said yesterday on NBC that Tiger expressed apprehension at his reception and unknown sensitivity to a crowd that may have changed. This comes on top of a similar report by Ben Curtis earlier in the week and Tiger's own statements in the lightning round interviews he did at the beginning of the week. I believe he's genuinely spooked. The crowds around him are going to be enormous, especially in the practice rounds. i'll bet Nicklaus and Watson could play naked on another part of the course without detection or notice.
cheers
vk