"I think par is used as a relative barometer, and is incredibly useful in that way. I certainly have no problem with anyone who ignores it (the concept of par) all together, but they are and will continue to be in the great minority. The good players think of par in terms of certain holes offering a chance to pick up a stroke on the course and others offering a chance to survive the challenge. In either event, making the goal score on the hole (birdie on an easy hole or par on a hard one) results in a certain satisfaction just like missing that score results in disappointment."
Sully:
Even though that's not exactly what you said above, I doubt you would possibly deny that tournament players of various levels who play a bunch of tournament stroke play golf at scratch really do use course par as a real working barometer throughout rounds and tournaments.
I mean I always pretty much knew within just a shot or two what I needed to do to qualify for something, to make cuts, to get into contention or to even try to win something, even though the last item was harder and more complicated for various reasons such as me
. I knew very well who I was competing against in that kind of "field" context and I knew what some of them would invariably do. It never changed frankly----it was remarkably predictable and for that reason alone it was a very useful barometer. In the level I played on par was a very useful barometer, not hole par but course par. Of course with scratch better ball you just take it down 5-6 shots and such.
In something like a club championship I figured if I could shoot par I would probably win over 95% of the time and over the years it worked out that way.
Of course for spooky accurate stroke play predictions about what anyone needed to do to win or make cuts or whatever there was always Chet Walsh who I came to call the Human IBM machine! Chet won the A.J. Drexel Paul tournament a few years ago (its six rounds of match play in three days) and when we were doing the handicapping I told the committee that Chet was probably getting one shot too many. As he was coming up the 18th hole in the finals I mentioned that to him and he told me as soon as he saw his handicap he just knew he had a very good shot at winning the tournament.