[Tom_Doak]

How much tougher is that first solo commission versus the second?

Rob:

I have always thought it was the other way around.

Most associates don't fly the coop until they have a potential first project already lined up.  Even if they don't [as I didn't], when business was booming, it was not that hard to find a client who was willing to take a chance on an unknown quantity, especially one who is probably willing to work dirt cheap to get his own name on something.  The client figures you are going to pour your heart and soul into it.  Indeed, they have much the same mentality as all the posts on these other threads about "who would you hire?"

For your second course, you are just an out-of-work golf course architect with a lot less experience than the other guys they are interviewing, and none of the cachet of being a design virgin.

Nowadays, of course, every project in one's career is hard to find.  But I still think your second and third and fourth courses will be harder than the first.

[Ian Andrew]

Brian brought up an interesting point earlier about guys being able to "move out on their own" and handle all of the aspects of a job - including the finances.

Is this a huge hill to climb for most associates?

How about associates who were "project leads" at various courses?

I would imagine the only way to see if you could do it is to give it a shot (and have someone give you a commission to work on)?

How much tougher is that first solo commission versus the second?

That deserves its own thread which I'll start...

[Greg Tallman]

Kurt Bowman

[Jaeger Kovich]

To find the next breakout architect... wouldn't that involve getting a number of new jobs? I predict it will be the person who has the biggest impact on the asian market.

Zai Jan!

[jim_lewis]

Oops! Sorry, I miss-read the question. I thought it asked who would be the next architect to go broke. If break-out is defined as commercial success, I predict it will be Logan Fazio. Famous family name did not hurt Rees and Bobby. But then, it hasn't done much for Jackie. When he hits 50, look for Davis Love (and Paul Cowley) to jump up the ladder. I'm pulling for Richard Mandell.

[Mac Plumart]

Is Schmidt- Curely and architecture firm or a construction firm?

[Anthony Gray]

Oops! Sorry, I miss-read the question. I thought it asked who would be the next architect to go broke. If break-out is defined as commercial success, I predict it will be Logan Fazio. Famous family name did not hurt Rees and Bobby. But then, it hasn't done much for Jackie. When he hits 50, look for Davis Love (and Paul Cowley) to jump up the ladder. I'm pulling for Richard Mandell.

  Love-Cowley's work at Diamonte makes my top 5.Very unique.Saw things that I have never seen before.Bold and fun.

  Anthony

[Jud_T]

Just a few more names that deserve mention as dark horses:

Keith Foster- I haven't seen The Harvester or The Quarry, but has this guy been given his shot at a truly great site yet?
Ron Prichard- Why hasn't this guy been given more original work?
Frank Pont-Ok, admitted bias as we were business school classmates and occasional drinking buddies, but check out his resume...
Gary Roger Baird- Barona Creek should have created more buzz for this guy.
David Esler- Black Sheep guy flies mostly under the radar..

[Mike_Young]

Here's the deal as I see it right now....you get project..you keep it quiet...you get it built...and find another one....there are no "break outs"...because there are no more RE projects and those projects were the ones that had the advertising/marketing budgets to promote someone..whether good or bad architecture....you only need to be known in a small radius....golf now has to make it on NOI....
Really the game will be much better when no one cares who designed the course....we don't know who designed half the buildings we like..or the town squares we like..or the friends homes we like....we just like it....that's the way golf has to be....
The hype we have tried to generate by placing such an emphasis on the architect is done...it was never for the design anyway....it was for the RE sales...
there are so many good places to play all over the States.  The smoke and mirrors are over....
Cheers

[Jud_T]

we don't know who designed half the buildings we like

Most of my extended family would beg to differ....

[TEPaul]

"The question I pose is who is next?"



I don't know, Jeff, but whoever he is I hope he has a thick skin; sort of like the consistency of an alligator.  


Matter of fact, I would even suggest he put the following on his business card:

"Dear potential clients; if you want to hire me you better get ready to leave me alone
            because as of now I think you are all a bunch of ignorant sluts."

[Chris Johnston]

Here's the deal as I see it right now....you get project..you keep it quiet...you get it built...and find another one....there are no "break outs"...because there are no more RE projects and those projects were the ones that had the advertising/marketing budgets to promote someone..whether good or bad architecture....you only need to be known in a small radius....golf now has to make it on NOI....
Really the game will be much better when no one cares who designed the course....we don't know who designed half the buildings we like..or the town squares we like..or the friends homes we like....we just like it....that's the way golf has to be....
The hype we have tried to generate by placing such an emphasis on the architect is done...it was never for the design anyway....it was for the RE sales...
there are so many good places to play all over the States.  The smoke and mirrors are over....
Cheers

Mike - very good post and right on.  We all have to do a lot more with more than a lot less.  And we must be unique, manage and deliver.  Lot sales don't subsidize club operations these days.  You must deliver "stem to stern" experience.

I'll stir things up a bit and touch the third rail of CGA...what about one of  Phil, Tiger, Ernie, Reteif, Faldo, Norman, Davis, etc as the next to "Breakout"?  They certainly have name power to create Buzz.   I guess it depends on what the term "breakout" really means - is it to us or the public?

[Tom_Doak]

I'll stir things up a bit and touch the third rail of CGA...what about one of  Phil, Tiger, Ernie, Reteif, Faldo, Norman, Davis, etc as the next to "Breakout"?  They certainly have name power to create Buzz.   I guess it depends on what the term "breakout" really means - is it to us or the public?

Chris:

That's a good question.  The real answer is that it depends on whether one of them finds a really talented guy to do all the parts they don't have time for.  Several of them have paired up with someone else now, but not many people really know anything about Gary Stephenson or Beau Welling or Greg Letsche ... and [unfortunately] that's the way the guys you mentioned will probably keep it.

On the other hand, Nicklaus and Palmer and Player made their way in the business by doing real estate development courses which could afford their fees.  For the near future, at least, there aren't going to be many [if any] of those sorts of jobs at all.  So if those guys are going to make a big name for themselves, they are going to have to do it in the only market that will pay them ... and we in America may never hear much about it.

[Mike_Young]

Mike - very good post and right on.  We all have to do a lot more with more than a lot less.  And we must be unique, manage and deliver.  Lot sales don't subsidize club operations these days.  You must deliver "stem to stern" experience.

I'll stir things up a bit and touch the third rail of CGA...what about one of  Phil, Tiger, Ernie, Reteif, Faldo, Norman, Davis, etc as the next to "Breakout"?  They certainly have name power to create Buzz.   I guess it depends on what the term "breakout" really means - is it to us or the public?

Chris,
IMHO these guys have a full time job as professional golfers....they haven't got the time to devote....and in these times they can't justify an office staff in most cases..so I would think their agents would try to find a link with an existing architect if he had a job lead for them....But think about it..most of these guys can do a monday appearance and be done with for the same amount they would make for a site visit when you divide it into the fee they could command. 
And then I just don't get it if they are not selling RE.   I would not sit in a stadium that Herschel Walker built or Mickey Mantle....it's just not what they do...so each of their projects becomes a product of the contractor....not to say they would not be good servicable golf projects...just not "breakouts"

[Jeff_Brauer]

If any of those guys wanted to hire me as their back up guy (or a few others in the biz) they could be the next break out architect.  They get the pub, we get the results.  They get more pub.

[Scott Macpherson]

It's an interesting question this. I might suggest that many people on this forum will only become aware of the 'next break-out architect' once they have broken out. There are good architects, some younger, who are working in zones of the world that may not be on the beaten track of this forums focus. Some guys like Adam Lawerence, who's job it is to follow the worldwide design scene would be better placed than most to name the, say, top 10 new talents, but even I can't .

My personal goal is to 'break-out' and become recognized. I see that goal as a healthy motivation, and a justification of all the years of study, and hours away from friends and family that is part and parcel of this occupation. But, whether it happens is multi-factorial. i.e. Will I get another project? Is the client interested in the best outcome? Is there the appropriate funding or permits? Is the land good enough? Am I good enough? Will the media like it? Will golfers be drawn to it?....

Success or recognition is not guaranteed and nor is it the end game for me. It's the culmination process. I strive for the best design on each feature (e.g. green, tee, fairway, grassy hollow, bunker, etc). If the best decisions are made and executed, then the quality of the design should come to the fore. If this happens on enough projects, the recognition will come

I feel like it's a tremendous privilege to be able to design golf courses, and until that changes, I, like Tom, will be giving each design 100% attention.

scott

[Adam Russell]

Mike Young -

I saw a picture of you sitting on the sidelines in Athens once - everyone knows Herschel built that place

I care more about the next break-out course than architect, but I gotta believe it'll be an older guy in the business with a course already under his belt. I just can't see someone without a name on a course under 30 getting a shot for the next five to ten years.

[Niall C]

Interesting stuff. Chris asks whether one of the top pro's will become the next break-out architect and Tom D responds by mentioning that the previous generation of top pro's tended to design real estate development courses, because that was where they got the top fees presumably because those were the type of course developments where their names could add value ?

Correct me if I'm wrong but there seems to be a presumption on here that real estate developments don't produce great courses therefore does it not follow that if the new super pro's go down the same route as the older guys then there not going to get the kudo's needed to be the next bing thing in design ? Successful financially, yes, but maybe not in terms of credit for "their" work.

Aloso interesting comments from Scott Macpherson. Maybe its not design talent that Scott and others need in spades but the talent to find and cultivate clients with the funds, the property and the backing to let the architect get on and do what they want to do. Is that a talent or is that just luck ?

Niall 

[Mac Plumart]

Is that a talent or is that just luck ?

I believe the answer is "yes."

I can relate two stories...one from my business and one from reading about contemporary golf history.

1)  When I first started at Merrill, I worked 7 days a week 80 to 100 hours a week in the office or in off-site meetings.  I studied everything I could, earned my CFA, CFM, and became an expert on just about everything related to my job.  My big break came when a client I had been prospecting said "Ok, here $10 million in a concentrated stock position.  Show me what you can do."  Due to my study and hard work, I was really familiar with the industry and the stock and my analysis showed it was over-valued and due for a pull back.  Also, my hard work educated me on ideas for handling concentrated stock positions.  I put a collar on the stock, the stock tanked, my collar worked like a charm, we blew out of the collar when I thought the stock had bottomed, the stock rebounded, and literall my client made millions.  My hard work translated into my lucky break.

Contrast that to when a colleague of mine had a exec from Yahoo! come into meet with him on how to handle his concentrated block of Yahoo! stock.  This guy came into the office a 9 and left at 4:30.  Never did his home work and he totally blew the meeting and never landed the $50 million account.  He didn't work hard, so he never got his lucky break.

2) Regarding what I know about contemporary golf history.   Tom Doak and Mike Keiser might be a good story here.  Tom, as I understand it, became obsessed with golf course architecture at a young age...really young.  Devoted all his time to studying the classic courses, got a degree in a related field, worked his ass off to get a job with Pete Dye, traveled far and wide to see the great courses of the world, wrote about golf courses at a young age and penned two amazing books, became the ratings editor at Golf Magazine through unbridled persistence, became an architect and got a few good jobs, but was struggling a bit when Mike Keiser came a calling.  He got his "lucky" break and all his hard work paid off. 

My experience, which is not related to golf but rather business, tells me you've got to have an undying belief in yourself.  You've got to work harder than EVERYONE else, so you are prepped and ready when that lucky breaks begins to walk through the door.  Then it is up to you to allow your confidence, talents, and hard work pay off.  (Insert The Rollins Band "Shine" song as background music and then follow that with Aerosmith "Dream on"...show Mike Keiser walking the links of Old MacDonald...Doug Sanders missing his putt at St. Andrews...Jack throwing his club in the air after making his putt...Ben Hogan in a wheel chair after his accident...followed by his epic 1 iron at Merion...and end it with Bobby Jones and all four of his major championshp trophies in 1930).

I am available for birthday parties, bar mitzvahs, and weddings...just send me a pm!!

[Adam Clayman]

Developers are going to need butts in the seat, so to speak.

The only one I seeing doing that, getting enough retail money off their asses, is Tiger Woods.

I think he'll like the serenity of the Sand Hills, don't you?

[Tom_Doak]

Correct me if I'm wrong but there seems to be a presumption on here that real estate developments don't produce great courses therefore does it not follow that if the new super pro's go down the same route as the older guys then there not going to get the kudo's needed to be the next bing thing in design ? Successful financially, yes, but maybe not in terms of credit for "their" work.

Niall 

Niall:

Real estate projects generally don't produce top-50 courses, because a lot of the best property tends to be reserved for real estate instead of golf.  But there are exceptions -- the project Tiger has signed up for in Mexico may be one of those.

However, I think Tiger and Phil would generate tremendous buzz even if they just designed above-average courses in real estate developments, just because of who they are, and because whoever has the money to pay them also has the money to ensure the course is maintained and built to the highest standard.  If you think about it, how many GREAT courses did Nicklaus, Palmer and Player ever build to generate their design reputations.  [Some help there:  Palmer and Player never really did ANY courses that generated great buzz, and yet they were two of the six busiest designers in the world for the past 25 years.]

So Tiger would be a "breakout" architect if he was just able to build four or five courses that would get finished and opened.  But for that matter, in the current market, almost ANYONE who could do that will be a breakout candidate by default.

[Randy Thompson]

I will take a long shot....Darius Oliver...hide and watch!

Tom,
Last I heard, Tiger`s Mexico project was dead!

[Ronald Montesano]

Mother nature.

[Dave Falkner]

Devereaux Emmet

[Derek Dirksen]

Jay Blasi with RTJ II. 

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