Golden Age Topic #2 - How will the next decade or two pan out?

[Richard Choi]

I am going to start a new thread on this as I think the other thread has sadly been hijacked for other purposes. I was going to start this thread even before the other thread started and right now is good a time as any.

The 1990's and 2000's were very productive in producing high-caliber, high-architecture golf courses, second only to 1900's to 1920's (at least in US). However, when the good times ended with the Great Depression, the number of new high quality golf courses plummeted to where very few coures of note were created for good half a century.

Are we about to enter another period of "Great Drought" over next 10, 20, or 50 years? If yes, why? If no, why?

My opinion is that the answer is yes for US while no for the rest of the world (especially in developing economies like China and India).

What say you?

[Tom_Doak]

Richard:

I don't see how anyone here can predict the future of golf development, as that future is completely at the mercy of economic issues that few seem to understand and no one seems able to control.

The "great drought" you speak of was the result of the Depression and World War II -- between them causing a 15-year almost-total interruption in the art of designing and constructing new courses.  When the business came back, there was almost no one left from the previous era who had the experience of what to do and how to do it.  And those few fellows got ridiculously busy, to the point that they became distanced from the details of the work.

I would hope that we are not at the start of a 15-year depression in the golf industry.  But it is certain that many talented people will be forced to find other things to do to support themselves, and that is a shame.

[Jud_T]

Richard,

I don't think the golden age is over.  Sure there will be many fewer courses built over the next 5-10 years, at least in the states, but the number will not be zero and some of them will be very good.  I think the success of places like Bandon as well as all the information available today, on sites like this, has made a real mark on the game and is not going away.  Plus I'm still looking for a Doak or Crenshaw course that I can retire to and play yearround without sweating profusely or freezing....

[David_Tepper]

I think one will need to separate future golf course development in the "developed" world (U.S., GB&I, Western Europe, Japan, Australia, etc.) from the "developing" world (China, India, Brazil, parts of Eastern Europe/Turkey, etc.).

The reality is that much of the developing world is in better shape financially than much of the developed world. Populations are younger and growing faster. In addition, land is cheaper and regulatory/environmental hurdles are much lower. NIMBY-ism is not as strong as force.

My guess is a healthy portion of golf courses built in the next decade will be built in the developing world. It remains to be seen what the quality of those courses will be.
   

[Jeff_Brauer]

I can't predict the future either, but always have an opinion....I will offer this -

The big construction booms  coincided with big economic booms that hit about every 20 years (20's, 50's, 70's and 90's I think we will skip the 10's not unlike the 30's.  Historically within those 20 year cycles there have also been mini construction spikes of construction on about 7 year cycles. So, I think we will see a mini spike around 2015, based on the 2008 collapse.  

I also think that just like the housing markets probably going to smaller, more environmental homes to meet a less affluent target market, golf courses will change.  Specifically, more housing courses will be built within active senior communities, meaning there will be no 7600 yard back tees and most, but not all, will be easier designs rather than courses trying to please everyone, or attract national attention by being tournament ready with no tournaments to play on them.  The era will more likely mirror the 50's than the 90's and perhaps by definition, designs may not be as good because for most, cost, ease of play, etc. will be a very targeted focus.

Just my take.

[JMEvensky]

 Specifically, more housing courses will be built within active senior communities, meaning there will be no 7600 yard back tees and most, but not all, will be easier designs rather than courses trying to please everyone, or attract national attention by being tournament ready with no tournaments to play on them.  

I'm not defending 7600 yard courses built for non-existing tournaments,but wouldn't the net effect of the above be to reduce golf to a lowest common denominator--slap and giggle?

I flashed on this horrible vision of the 2030 US Open played at the Villages-hosted by Nancy Lopez.

Your analysis is probably correct and certainly more valid than mine.What worries me is that,frequently,trying to appeal to the lowest common denominator turns off the true believer.Golf can't afford to lose many true believers.

[Dick Kirkpatrick]

 The era will more likely mirror the 50's than the 90's and perhaps by definition, designs may not be as good because for most, cost, ease of play, etc. will be a very targeted focus.

I would like to think that the modern day architect is versatile enough to create good designs regardless of budget, and for that matter, cost and ease of play.

Some of the best courses on the planet were built with these type of constraints.

[Tom_Doak]

Oh, it won't be that gloomy.  I know of at least one good new course that will be built in Florida ... maybe even two if Bill Coore can get his head around building a fairway in a lake.

[David_Tepper]

An article in the 1/18/10 issue of GolfWorld states that 90% of the design work for the Nicklaus group is now coming from Asia. "Head East young, GCA, head East!"

[Ian Andrew]

An article in the 1/18/10 issue of GolfWorld states that 90% of the design work for the Nicklaus group is now coming from Asia. "Head East young, GCA, head East!"

They all have - and I think we all know what will eventually happen out there too.
The change in this business is far from over.

Think about this....

It's quite like that Nicklaus, Dye, Palmer, Fazio and Jones won't be active by the end of the decade.
I think this decade represents a major transition in the business of golf design.

[Jeff_Mingay]

Oh, it won't be that gloomy.  I know of at least one good new course that will be built in Florida ... maybe even two if Bill Coore can get his head around building a fairway in a lake.

I'm not as interested in what (might) happen over the next decade or two as I am in Bill Coore getting his head around building a fairway in a lake?!!!

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