Tom M…
I thought a lot about your post over the morning and I wanted to include a longer post in response to it.
First, and foremost, I love what you bring to the discussion group and you are one of the main reasons for me wanting to get involved with Golf Club Atlas. I think your research is quite phenomenal and I hope that one day I have same level of knowledge related to golf history as you have. However, for now I don’t…but I am really interested to learn. This is why I read so much, ask questions, etc.
Secondly, I think you and I, potentially, go about things (or look at things) differently. Perhaps this is due to our backgrounds/professions. From your posts and writings on the site, it appears to me that you are a golf historian and an author. You research past records, find evidence, and report on it. As you are an historian and author, that is what you must do and it makes total sense.
I on the other hand am a portfolio manager. I do research and try to piece together a variety of data from a variety of sources to derive a mosaic picture in order to infer a conclusion (or an educated guess) as to what might happen in the future. From this I take investment actions. In your words, I speculate. In my world, there is nothing definitive…you simply do the best you can to figure out what might happen.
A recent an example of this is a trade I executed on a stock. In March, when the whole world seemed to be falling apart my research led me to believe that the core earnings of the stock were around $2.74 after all the dilution. But the stock was trading at almost the same price, which equates to 1 times earnings. In my world, that is absurd unless the company is going out of business. BUT, if the company is going to make money how can it go out of business? So, after more diligence, double and triple checking, I loaded the wagons with the stock when the price was around $4/share. Now, did I know for sure (did I have verifiable evidence) that the stock would rise in value? No. I simply made the best guess I could. And fortunately that stock is about $16 to $17 per share as I type this.
So, this is where I come from and how I think. Is it “right” for an historian to think this way? No, you can’t speculate on what might have occurred in the past. You can’t say that even though Joe Schmoe is the architect of record on Course X, I think it Jane Doe had something to do with it even though there is no evidence to support it. I get that. And I get that you are trying to find evidence to support the claims that you make and you like to see similar evidence when others make claims as well.
But in this instance regarding Joshua Crane, I did not make a definitive claim. Rather I said, “ (it was)…perhaps one of the biggest and defining moments in golf course architecture history"
“Perhaps” was used purposefully to open it up for debate
And
“one of the biggest” was used to put a qualifier on it.
I can see by using my regular thought processes how this MIGHT be true. And it is interesting for me to wonder about it and the entire “Golden Age” for that matter, which is the reason why I put this paragraph in my opening post…
“how wonderful it must have been to be an active participant in the "Golden Age" of golf course architecture. CB MacDonald develops his ideas and models, Mackenzie takes an almost opposite stance, Colt makes major steps forward, and Joshua Crane takes an entirely different view on what a golf course is supposed to be. No clear direction had been established concerning what the fundamentals of golf course architecture were and all of these guys (and some more) were putting into writing their formal thoughts. How cool!”
In closing, I see clearly where you are coming from and I respect it very much. In fact, I would like to see more of your work and if there is anything I can do to help facilitate it…I am simply an email or post away.
However, understand I am seeking to learn about golf, golf architecture, and its history. I rarely make definitive claims. Instead, I generally think out loud and wonder openly…in hopes that others will join in provide extra research, color, background, and opinions.
I could go on…but I will stop now.
Later,
Mac