G.C.A. UNOFFICIAL Top 100 Released

[Ian_L]

Jim, thanks for the opinion.  That is why I chose to post both lists, without making either "official."

[Jonathan Cummings]

Jim - try this mental exercise.  Pretend a rater had a bad experience at a great course and submitted a rating of "1".  Twenty other raters gave that same course a "10".  Should I, as the one compiling the averages, blindly allow the "1" to be used in the overall average?  Of course not.  Scientists would laugh me out of the building if I tried to summarize a collection of numbers including that "1".  The "1" is an example of sampling bias.  There are good and widely used tests to eliminate bias including imposing SD limits on votes used to generate overall averages.

You are incorrect about the normal distributions of the Pine Valleys.  You are simply seeing the lower half of the normal distribution hard capped at "10".  There are simple tests to show that these collections are Guassian as well.

Testing for distributions, eliminating bias and imposing limits on accepted votes are sound practices for Ian's or similar exercises for a wide range of data collection sets.  Ian's lists, once I employed the few basic corrections listed above, were surprisingly stable given his smaller sample set.

JC 

[George Freeman]

If you don't want to download, here are snapshots of the rankings, with all eligible courses included. 

Raw:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v603/ian8389/GCA/Raw_All.jpg

Adjusted:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v603/ian8389/GCA/Raw_All.jpg

Enjoy.

Just looking back on these rankings.  Very interesting and I think a very good list.

Ian - the links above both appear to link to the raw list.  Can you post the adjusted list with all eligible courses (if you still have the info that is)?

Thanks!

[Jim Eder]

This is a terrific list. I was a bit surprised at Riviera being as far down as it is. My best guess for the biggest mover in next year's list is LACC North. I hope everyone on this site gets to enjoy the recent terrific work. It should probably be in the top 20 at least next year.

Does anyone think there is a bias against west coast courses?

This is a terrific list though and I think everyone ionvolved got it right.  Great job!!!

[Tom_Doak]

Jim,

I think the "bias" against west coast courses has most to do with the fact that west coast panelists are unfamiliar with the second tier of east coast courses, and tend to underestimate them.  You guys can tell us that George Thomas was underrated, we can tell you that Tillinghast and Ross and Flynn were, too.

[Jim Eder]

Tom,

Very interesting. I have to say that Thomas and Flynn are both underrated imo. And if Tillinghast is viewed as nothing but great by west coasters it is an absolute shame (Tillinghast courses are absolute gems to me). I have played most of the second tier greats in the East (helps to work with Wall Street) so I hope that my views aren't based on lack of access but I understand where you are coming from.

When I look at the list I find it difficult to move SFGC and Riv up more than a couple of spots not because of a lack of greatness on their part but because of the excellence of the other courses ahead of them. LACC pre-work I guess I can maybe understand the current position but it will be very interesting to see next year's list (it may be ahead of SFGC and Riv in my book, I need to play it a few more times but it is excellent).

I think we always have location bias (why would we live where we live if we didn't?) but I am a bit surprised that LA gets what I perceive (and very well may be wrong) a knock against it for reasons that are really unknown to me (the perception of NYC and LA are the same for most in my experience - maybe LA is viewed as not serious etc while NYC is the center of the universe).

Maybe I am just as biased ........................................................ :/

[Tom_Doak]

Jim,

All I know is that when I was compiling the GOLF Magazine list years ago, the regional biases were not in evidence.  Everyone said we did not have enough courses from Continental Europe, for example, but most of the American panelists tried to include a couple as tokens ... they just could not agree on which of them, apart from Morfontaine.  But the European panelists, all of whom had played extensively in the USA and Britain, pretty much thought that none of their own courses belonged in the list.

[Jim Eder]

Tom,

Very interesting. That is great to hear. Maybe I have to go back to my life coach and shrink and figure out my inferiority issues...............................   

[Matt_Ward]

The middle of the USA -- especially the mountain time zone -- gets far too little attention save for the intrepid souls who have been in recent years to see what has really happened. Too many people on the left and right coasts of the USA simply hold on to those courses in their own areas in my mind.

[George Freeman]

The middle of the USA -- especially the mountain time zone -- gets far too little attention save for the intrepid souls who have been in recent years to see what has really happened. Too many people on the left and right coasts of the USA simply hold on to those courses in their own areas in my mind.

Matt,

What courses specifically are you speaking about getting overlooked?

[Mac Plumart]

I'll guess Red Ledges!!   

[George Freeman]

West-Middle USA/Mountain courses represented:
- Sand Hills
- Ballyneal
- Prairie Dunes
- Rock Creek

Courses left off, but worth noting (?):
- Colorado Golf Club (142 raw)
- Wild Horse (124 raw)
- Shadow Creek (130 raw)
- Stone Eagle (144 raw)
- Sutton Bay (164 raw)
- Black Mesa (165 raw)
- Cherry Hills (229 raw)
- Castle Pines (240 raw)

Others?

[Sean_A]

Is there any thought to somebody taking the reins to update the rankings every few years or whatever?  I spose to make things a bit easier you could only revote on courses which averaged at least 7 on the raw scale (including those that didn't garner enough votes, but their average was high enough) and any new seconded nominations that weren't part of the previous batch (there shouldn't be many).  I remember Tom D being worried about the nomination process going so deep beyond the original pool garnered from published best of lists, but if I recall, only Rock Creek made it through as a top 100 for Ian's ranking.  I thought this was incredible filtering given the massive disparity of experience and was one reason I thought the list was very good.

Ciao

[Carl Nichols]

Tom-
I have always suspected that what you describe is what has happened with certain Argentine courses, especially Olivos.

[Mike Jansen]

Wow!  Spyglass Hill goes not listed and then comes in at #100?!?!  This is worse than the magazines!  You should all be ashamed!

[George Freeman]

Wow!  Spyglass Hill goes not listed and then comes in at #100?!?!  This is worse than the magazines!  You should all be ashamed!

Mike, what do you mean goes "not listed?"

[Mike Jansen]

Not listed on the "raw" rankings, and then added to the "adjusted".

[Carl Nichols]

Not listed on the "raw" rankings, and then added to the "adjusted".

It seems to be #111 in the unadjusted rankings.

[George Freeman]

Not listed on the "raw" rankings, and then added to the "adjusted".

It seems to be #11 in the unadjusted rankings.

You must not be looking at what I'm looking at...

[Carl Nichols]

Not listed on the "raw" rankings, and then added to the "adjusted".

It seems to be #11 in the unadjusted rankings.

You must not be looking at what I'm looking at...

sorry, typo -- 111, not 11.  corrected

[Thomas Dai]

In view of the recent discussion about the European GJ Top-100 and other various comments about rankings, I thought it time to bump this thread.

Did matters ever progress any further, say on any other or later GCA threads, or are the listings and dialogue detailed herein as far as the GCA  Discussion Board collectively reached?

atb

[Jim Nugent]

I think this is a real cool thread.  While it must be a massive undertaking, any chance to update the rankings?  i.e. GCA Unofficial top 100 for 2014/15?

[Jud_T]

My vote would be to wait until the 5th or 10th anniversary to update it.

[Greg Gilson]

5'th anniversary is here!

Whilst I cannot offer up the time or the skillset to volunteer for the job, I would love to participate...the results would be interesting, of course, but the change versus 2009, would be of particular interest.

[Jim Nugent]

5'th anniversary is here!

Whilst I cannot offer up the time or the skillset to volunteer for the job, I would love to participate...the results would be interesting, of course, but the change versus 2009, would be of particular interest.

Fun to predict what courses might break into the top 100: Old Mac, Lost Farm, Cabot Links.  Hirono if it gets enough votes.  Maybe Dismal Red and SS Blue?   

Real interesting to see what comes off the current list to make room for the newbies, and also where the newbies debut at.