If the 2013 Open was this week

[D_Malley]

what would the winning score be?

[Matt_Ward]

D Malley:

As an FYI -- when the World Amateur Team event was played at Merion in 1960 Jack Nicklaus broke 270 there with a four-round total of 269 -- the situation was helped by wet conditions and even Jack admited that his scoring total was that much lower than Hogan's winning total for the US Open because of that reality.

No doubt if you get Merion really wet -- as seen this week -- the talent level of the people involved will go low.

[Willie_Dow]

Matt - Don't forget the letter Nicklaus wrote to Merion, "My score of 269 in 1960 has been compared to the 287 of Ben Hogan in 1950 many times.  This is certainly not a fair comparison since we played the course virtually under the same conditions as the members do each day; whereas Hogan played under USGA Open preparations.  I certainly realized that 11 years later in 1971 when I played the Open there."

One of my good friends made an interesting observation about the current conditions at Bethpage. "The USGA should (be) much more flexible and host their biggest events in more optimal times during the year.  Why they are stuck in having the US Open in June during high humidity and thunderstorms is beyond me.  Why not change the dates to mid May or late September??"

Good thinking ?

[Kyle Harris]

Matt - Don't forget the letter Nicklaus wrote to Merion, "My score of 269 in 1960 has been compared to the 287 of Ben Hogan in 1950 many times.  This is certainly not a fair comparison since we played the course virtually under the same conditions as the members do each day; whereas Hogan played under USGA Open preparations.  I certainly realized that 11 years later in 1971 when I played the Open there."

One of my good friends made an interesting observation about the current conditions at Bethpage. "The USGA should (be) much more flexible and host their biggest events in more optimal times during the year.  Why they are stuck in having the US Open in June during high humidity and thunderstorms is beyond me.  Why not change the dates to mid May or late September??"

Good thinking ?

Not really, considering the weather patterns are mainly cyclical and seasonable depending on the location.

[Gary Slatter]

If there is no wind (less than 25 mph) and no rain what will the scores of the 2010 Open on the Old Course be like?  248?

[Jeff_Brauer]

I don't know. I vaguely recall it being cloudy, if not rainy when the US Am was played there, and I think the course held up to par pretty well then.  It must have, or the USGA wouldn't have awarded it the Open, I think.  Sometimes, I think the short, tricky approach shots can be made just as difficult as the longer ones.

I am still wondering about the details of handling the crowds at MCC. I think the USGA is probably worried more about that than the final score.

[Matt_Ward]

Willie:

A few responses ...

My point in mentioning the Nicklaus record in 1960 was to show that conditions -- Nicklaus had softer turf to handle than what Hogan faced makes a big time difference.

In regards to moving the US Open to another month beyond June - that's not likely to happen because of the benefit in having the most sunshine (hard for it to come out this week) and longest days -- and for the obvious reason that June has always been used as the center point of all golf seasons with the US Open being contested at that time and generally falling on Father's Day with its conclusion.

In regards to t-storms and the like -- they can happen at any time in either June, mid-May or September. Luck and good timing play a major role so the idea that June is not a good month doesn't bear out. Keep in mind this is the first weather related issue at the US Open since the 1st round at Shinnecock in '04.

[Willie_Dow]

Yes Matt - I guess you're right !  June is usually a pretty good month, but not when the avoidance of sun spots fail to come into view.

Jeff - The USGA did a great job at BB, and we will do the same in 2013.  Don't forget the use of the West course for an introduction for crowd control.  I agree that there must be a limit on how many people on the East can wander.

[Matt_Ward]

Willie:

I don't see June ever being changed for the US Open.

The issue at Bethpage was the incredible bad luck dealing with the daily rains that came -- prior to the event and all during as well.

Good scores will be shot when that happens -- wherever that may be.

[John Moore II]

Matt - Don't forget the letter Nicklaus wrote to Merion, "My score of 269 in 1960 has been compared to the 287 of Ben Hogan in 1950 many times.  This is certainly not a fair comparison since we played the course virtually under the same conditions as the members do each day; whereas Hogan played under USGA Open preparations.  I certainly realized that 11 years later in 1971 when I played the Open there."

One of my good friends made an interesting observation about the current conditions at Bethpage. "The USGA should (be) much more flexible and host their biggest events in more optimal times during the year.  Why they are stuck in having the US Open in June during high humidity and thunderstorms is beyond me.  Why not change the dates to mid May or late September??"

Good thinking ?

It might be an OK idea, would open up places like Florida and Arizona to hosting a major event, but it won't happen. With the USGA having so many events to hold over the course of the year, 13 individual events played every year, plus 6 amateur team events alternating years, that gives the USGA likely 16 events to organize every year. That is why they are pretty much played on the same week every year. It also helps with qualifying rounds and the state associations having to organize those.

On the issue of Hogan's score, and any score from back in that era when they played a 36 hole final day has to be looked upon a bit differently. A 36 hole final day will certainly run the score higher.

[D_Malley]

since no one will answer the original question, i will give it a shot. 

If we have conditions this soft in 2013 (-20) could be a possibility.
agree or disagree?

[Kalen Braley]

since no one will answer the original question, i will give it a shot. 

If we have conditions this soft in 2013 (-20) could be a possibility.
agree or disagree?

D_Malley,

Doesn't this board see enough pain without having to start another Merion-esque battle?   

BTW, I don't agree with -20.  I predict by 2013, Mike Davis and his graduated rough setups are going to be tossed on thier head (not that I agree, but still think its going to happen).  I'm predicting 20-25 yard wide fairways that butt up to 5 inch rough at Merion to combat with PGA long-balling...which will be that much longer in 4 years from now.

[Ken Moum]

I predict by 2013, Mike Davis and his graduated rough setups are going to be tossed on thier head (not that I agree, but still think its going to happen).  I'm predicting 20-25 yard wide fairways that butt up to 5 inch rough at Merion to combat with PGA long-balling...which will be that much longer in 4 years from now.

I doubt that graduated rough will go away, but I'd guess that the deeper rough will get closer to the fairway. It looked to me as if there was a really wide second cut, and some holes had fairly wide first cuts.

The other thing that will be in effect in 2013 is the new groove rule.

I was initially lukewarm on the rule as I thought it was bassakward way of going at the "problem" but it sounds like players who've tested the new/old grooves are finding a big effect on the number of fliers. If that turns out to be the case, even relatively light rough will be effective as it wioll encourage players to attempt shots that have high risk.

[D_Malley]

agree that the fairways will be narrow with high thick rough close in, but they will not need to hit driver on many holes.  Irons off many tees should be pretty easy to hit soft fairways.

[John Moore II]

I think if any Open were held in rainy/wet conditions the scores would be very low. At Pinehurst in 2014, they will take it deep then if the course is receptive like it was this week. Those crowned greens only work it they are super fast and dry; I played there after a heavy rain and fired darts at the flags all day, balls were nearly plugging on the greens. Those guys on TV are far superior in skill than me.

You add in soft, slow fairways, soft slow greens, no wind and the skill those guys have, the scores aught to be deep on any course, its fairly simple.

And to the original question, I have never been to Merion or seen it, so I don't know if the winning score would be -20 or +20; however, as always, I eagerly and humbly await my chance to play in order to determine first hand the low scoring potential.

[Mark Luckhardt]

Merion does have the XGD System installed on their greens. They should firm up much faster than Bethpages greens did on the weekend. I know Bethpage has certainly drilled/filled those greens to add drainage characteristics, but without internal greens drainage, the water will not move through the soil profile at a sufficient rate of speed.  I cannot vouch for the fact that they have some kind of drain system on Bethpages greens?

[Phil_the_Author]

Who cares... It's Merion and the U.S. Open is being played there... (Don't tell Wayne I wrote that!  )

[Dan Herrmann]

Philip - exactly.  It's friggin' Merion!

[Tom_Doak]

I happened to play Merion this morning.  The greens were still soft from all the rain, though not as soft as Pine Valley's yesterday.  [PV was the greenest and softest I've ever seen it.]  However the rough at Merion was downright nasty -- my forearms still hurt ten hours later -- and the fairways are pretty narrow and there are only the two par-5's.  So I think the winning score this week would have been -6 to -8.

I did hear some crazy rumors about possible set-up ideas for Merion, which I won't repeat because they may just be caddie gossip.  If true, it will be that much harder to shoot -8.

[Rob Rigg]

Tom is now challenging Peter Herreid, Kyle Henderson and Ben Sims for most "Dream Courses" played this year . . .

Even if it was really wet at Merion, based on the distance, the guys would throw darts at the fairways and again at the greens - I think they would be able to go pretty low, especially if half the field ended up getting decent scoring conditions throughout.

-15 would be possible - my estimate.

As long as the battle is tight on Sunday and there is an interesting variety of misses/gems/drama it doesn't really matter. But I hope Merion gets a better mix of weather so the pros are pushed - that is what makes the tournament. Watching Bob Hope Classic scoring at the US Open would not so good.

[Michael Dugger]

Sometimes, I think the short, tricky approach shots can be made just as difficult as the longer ones.

Try telling that to the folks around here who thought the short par 3 14th hole at BPB and the 18th were bad holes.

I totally concur, Jeff.  

[Jeff_Brauer]

Michael,

Thanks!

The only thing I know for sure is that if the 2013 US Open was this week, I would be totally pissed when I walked up to the gate in 2013 to find out I had missed the Merion open!

What do you think their open slogan will be?  "See the biggest battle at Merion since the golf club atlas debate!"

[Tom_Doak]

Rob:

I have only played something like 15 rounds of golf so far this year.  But they were good ones:

Crystal Downs 4 times; Pacific Dunes 2x; Old Macdonald 3x; California Golf Club; Cherry Hills; Common Ground; Mid Ocean; Somerset Hills; Pine Valley (Short Course and main course); Merion East; Stonewall (both courses); and I'm playing Lancaster this morning.

I'm sure that there is somebody playing a lot more good courses than that ... but my average round on the Doak scale this year is 8.40.  You'd have to be a member somewhere pretty good in order to beat that average.

[Mike Sweeney]

... but my average round on the Doak scale this year is 8.40. 

Statistically impossible unless you still have a BIG blind spot about Stonewall! 

[Jeff_Brauer]

TD,

I think we have a gca.com version of the Sony Rankings for our golf years.

Hmm, let's see.  My Golf in the first half of 2009 is about equal to Tom's -

Great Southwest GC - 3 (home course and own re design)
Cowboys GC - 2 (own design)
Indian Creek, Creeks (2) (own re design)
Bridges of Preston Crossing (3) (own design)
Champions at Weeks Park (2) (own re design)
Sanctuary at Cat Island (1) (own re design)
Pine Dunes
Chambers Bay
Pac Dunes
Bandon Dunes
Bandon Trails
Old Mac (10 holes, partial credit!)

If I give my own stuff a 6.5 on average, and the others 8 to 9's then my score is appears to be 7.2 on the Doak Scale.  Still not bad.

I actually propose this self ranking of our own golf year become an annual after Xmas tradition on golf club atlas.com!

Of course, I realize that in some other areas, "self measuring" and/or "self scoring" has caused some controversy among participants.  In this arena, we would have to trust that participants wouldn't have any particular reason to over inflate their Doak Scale rankings of courses played, if there were no actual Doak rankings for said course.  If we posted like I did above, I am sure that an over ranked course would suffer a beat down.  A beat down on golfclubatlas?  Naaah, that never happens, does it?

But seriously, it COULD be a fun endeavor for this group.