Architects - where are we going..

[Jonathan Cummings]

Hey you architects, what do you have going on?  How long do you think you can sustain things for your firm?  How many of you are we going to see in business in the next few months, short years?  What provisions are you making to adapt to such an austere horizon.  What are you doing to make sure you are still viable as your industry constricts?  How are you contending with the employee base you have built in the boom times now that we are in the bust times?

Your demise is our demise.  As the Shack, Max's Lounge, Gca.com, etc discussion groups have had, in years past, a broad base for their fodder, it's now drying up.  Fewer courses mean fewer fresh topics.  I fear the noise levels on these sights will increase as the bona-fide new subjects are reduced.

I'm seeing less substance from all the gca discussion sites.  Is this because there is less material to discuss?

I think so.

JC       

[Ian Andrew]

Hey you architects, what do you have going on?

I’ve seen a dramatic uptick in renovation activity in the last month – for me this means – I’m close to busy again. Not a lot of construction – but lots of planning for next year. I now have a few projects to do this fall since a few clubs have decided the sky didn’t fall after all – and have returned to making renovations.

I’ve also been asked to look at a couple of new projects in the next few weeks – although there are no guarantees that anything will come of them in this climate.

How long do you think you can sustain things for your firm?

More than half the firms are single person – it’s a hell of a lot easier to survive that way. The industry is not all large firms – despite that being the focus of most discussions on this site.

How many of you are we going to see in business in the next few months, short years?

The large firms have already laid off. In a few years they’ll begin the process of growing again – although some firms will never grow to the same size again after this downturn. History says 75% will still be gainfully employed two years out.

What provisions are you making to adapt to such an austere horizon.  What are you doing to make sure you are still viable as your industry constricts?

If you were only building new courses – you found yourself short of work – with not a lot of prospects. If you work in renovation – you’ve been hit far less hard – and would likely stay the course. If you are well established - you may have even enjoyed the few extra weeks of quiet – before work began to return.

How are you contending with the employee base you have built in the boom times now that we are in the bust times?

I put money aside in the better times. I lived off the past earnings till things picked back up. Isn’t that how all business survives?

I was practicing in the last down cycle (1992-1994) - there was very little work and tons of lay-offs. Like all cycles, it came to an end and things picked back up and people returned to the industry after doing what they had to survive.

Where are we going?

Living easy, living free
Season ticket on a one-way ride
Asking nothing, leave me be
Taking everything in my stride
Dont need reason, dont need rhyme
Aint nothing I would rather do
Going down, party time
My friends are gonna be there too

Im on the highway to hell

No stop signs, speed limit
Nobodys gonna slow me down
Like a wheel, gonna spin it
Nobodys gonna mess me round
Hey satan, payed my dues
Playing in a rocking band
Hey momma, look at me
Im on my way to the promised land

Im on the highway to hell
(dont stop me)

And Im going down, all the way down
Im on the highway to hell

[Tom_Doak]

Hey, Jonathan, how's your business going?  Making the mortgage payment okay without much freelance work out there?

You could possibly be a little more sensitive to the situation.  Nobody really wants to talk about it, because they're afraid that the truth will scare away the few potential clients who are still out there.

For us, I've lost track of which projects are technically "on hold," and which have just been abandoned.  We are fortunate to still have a couple of big new projects in planning, and we will start building our first golf course in China in September ... but in the meantime, with Old Macdonald finished and the Bay of Dreams wrapping up this month, we're about to have zero golf courses under construction for the first time in ten years.

[Adam Clayman]

JC, Tom's correct that this is not a topic for public consumption. However, I couldn't help but notice how behind the times your posit is. Perhaps if it was written over a year ago, we could marvel at your ability to predict. It comes off now like the cab driver talking about P/E ratios. Which might be a god thing if you're in the business. 

BTW, Max's Lounge? Was ist das?

[Mike Sweeney]

Hey, Jonathan, how's your business going? 

Mine (obviously not GCA) sucks, but what I was doing two years ago will not be what I am doing two years from now, and I have been trying to reposition it/me for the last 6 months. I have always done very well coming out of a recession, and yes all the doom and gloomers can pile on but the GM filing yesterday was the real start of the climb back up, obviously in my opinion.

I have posted about Deltona Club in Florida a few times here, and I am fascinated by the course, maintenance and business model. I spoke to Bobby Weed about it and he seemed pretty excited about his new focus:

http://www.bobbyweed.com/Article/gw.pdf

Moving forward, if I was a golf course architect, I would change my sales pitch from "Here are my Top 100's" to "here are my profitable projects and here is how I can create profit for your project/renovation and by the way, people love to play my courses."

[Tom_Doak]

Adam:

It shouldn't be a topic that's off limits for public consumption ... but should only be discussed if handled with appropriate sensitivity to the situation.

Layoffs, for example, mean people you know are out of work, or fearing they're about to be.  And we're not going to see Jack Nicklaus or Tom Fazio come on here to post about who is staying and who had to go and why.


Mike S:

I agree with you that cost control ought to be a major topic when considering architects nowadays.  But, I always thought it should be, and it took me a long time to realize that pre-2008, it was counterproductive to talk about it until the client brought it up.  When they are starting a project, clients just want to hear how great it will be ... if you start talking costs, either you'll scare them off it or they will think you are somehow going to compromise the quality along the way.


Jonathan:

When Bill Coore and I are both hoping to get projects started on Hainan Island,  in China, that should tell you a lot about where the business has gone.  Ironically, though, we just got a call this morning about a new job in the USA, so maybe Sweeney's sense of timing is right on.

[Mike Sweeney]

When Bill Coore and I are both hoping to get projects started on Hainan Island,  in China, that should tell you a lot about where the business has gone. 

Oh and rather than hire a kid out of Cornell who spent a year in St Andrews, I would hire one that speaks Chinese.

[Tom_Doak]

Mike:

They are still probably 5-10 years away from having Chinese kids who understand golf architecture.  (I'll probably be training a couple, one way or another.)  When they get there, we're all out of work, unless they just like us.

[Jeff Doerr]

When Bill Coore and I are both hoping to get projects started on Hainan Island,  in China, that should tell you a lot about where the business has gone. 

Oh and rather than hire a kid out of Cornell who spent a year in St Andrews, I would hire one that speaks Chinese.

If I were a young aspiring GCA with a dream (think Jordan Wall), I think I'd fill up a few electives with Chinese and Spanish.

But, I'd still also like to do summer work on Brogue and Gaelic!

[Tom_Doak]

Jeff:

That is exactly right.  I have a potential dream job waiting for the right young shaper or project manager or superintendent who speaks Mandarin.

[Adrian_Stiff]

I think South East asia will kick off far sooner than anywhere else but I can't see many new UK golf courses for a while and with the depressed state Europe will be at least 5 years before things start to move. I figure that golf courses will be at the back end of the cycle after house building starts again. I read an article in January 2008 that predicted pretty much everything that has happened and the main statement was "you will never see house prices as high as they are now in our lifetimes". House prices dont seem to have fallen much recently, the big fall was the last half of 2008, but bottom line they are still 30-35% too expensive, first time housing was for a long time based on mortgage lending on 3 times the mans income and 1.5 times the ladies, for normal 23 year olds that relates to £80-85,000. First time housing here starts at maybe £120,000. That is a fundamental breach of how the housing economy works, if it was 3x a mans income for so many years, how so it went to 6x? I think house prices need a big drop before buying a house works again, equally if you buy a property to rent, a reasonable rent on a first time property would be £600 per month, when you consider a rental house might need £2500 set aside for insurance, maintenance and repairs that leaves £4,700 per annum profit, perhaps close on a 6% yield....that works okay and you will see investors buying. At £120,000 the yield is 4%, that wont keep anyone fat and leaves no margin for investment houses to take a turn. Demand for golf is less one of our counties have just reported a loss of 1000 members, with less golfers there will be less courses so I can't see the need to build new ones.

[Tom_Doak]

Adrian:

I think you are right for the business in general but there is one demographic out there that I don't think will go away ... the very successful guys who just want to develop a golf course because of their own passion for the game.

Right now they are laying low because it would not be good politically or socially to be seen developing a golf course, and that is a problem we've got to kick somehow.  But there is still plenty of money in the world, and as land values fall, it may become more practical to build a great course again ... as long as you feel like you don't have to sell a bunch of memberships to pay for it.

[Adrian_Stiff]

Yes Tom there are always those, although they are rare. Some of the expensive car manufactures have had cancellations not because the buyer can no longer afford his new car, just because it looks politically incorrect.

The weird thing is there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the world, yes the money is still there, but everyone is frightened of what happens next. If you think I spend a £1,000,000 with you, you spend it with B, he spends with C, etc etc that same £1,000,000 gets spend lots and lots of times and everyone is rich until the money lands with a hamster. At the moment everyones a hamster :O(.

[George Pazin]

Seems like many are reading too much into Jonathan's post. My read is he is trying to lighten the mood on a difficult subject, and even praise the architects by saying that without their new work, we don't have enough to discuss. The hard reality on here is when we don't have new courses to discuss, things tend to get a bit angry. It wasn't unintentional that I did my Oakmont threads during the winter time...

Anyway, I hope everyone's business improves and we have lots of new courses to discuss. Don't look to me for hope, however, I'm the anti-Mike Sweeney; I think we might be down for the count this time.

[Bill_McBride]

Seems like many are reading too much into Jonathan's post. My read is he is trying to lighten the mood on a difficult subject, and even praise the architects by saying that without their new work, we don't have enough to discuss. The hard reality on here is when we don't have new courses to discuss, things tend to get a bit angry. It wasn't unintentional that I did my Oakmont threads during the winter time...

Anyway, I hope everyone's business improves and we have lots of new courses to discuss. Don't look to me for hope, however, I'm the anti-Mike Sweeney; I think we might be down for the count this time.

Well aren't you the cheery one? 

[George Pazin]

Bill, the good news is that it generally takes a long time for empires to collapse...

[Kalen Braley]

Perhaps not as uncommon as you might think though.

Only took 3 days back in 1929 to screw most of the modern world for 10+ years...just saying.. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929

[Mike Sweeney]

I think we might be down for the count this time.

George,

Can you be a little more specific?

Who is we?

What does "down for the count" mean?

When was the last time?

Thanks

[George Pazin]

Mike, it was a poor choice by yours truly to include that, I don't want to threadjack, I will send you a PM later.

[Mike_Young]

I think Tom is right re not talking about this topic much.....where it used to be everyone had pr people broadcasting new work...you don't want to tell anyone now....but here is a stab at the questions...

Hey you architects, what do you have going on?
A couple things but taking them slow so as to keep a smaller group busy and owners are wanting to go slow also....

How long do you think you can sustain things for your firm?
Never thought about it....I hope for a long time....it's just me plus the constrcution guys...main goal is to keep them busy....

How many of you are we going to see in business in the next few months, short years?
I think it will be about half and I don't see it comng back as more becuase next go around people will be much more efficient.....I don't think the signature golf professional work will come back the way it has because the developers will not be using such for marketing as much.....they will find other ways....plus the unlimited budgets in many cases allowed us to be burdened with some bad courses that were so well maintained that the average person had no idea....those course might not exist in 20 years....as well as clubhouses...I think when it comes back that the majority will be regional architects working within regions ad most will never hear of them....the business is much like the homebuilding business....none of us know the good homebuilders in an area outside of a very small radius of our home....

What provisions are you making to adapt to such an austere horizon.  What are you doing to make sure you are still viable as your industry constricts?
I 'm not telling but if I am just considering such them I am too late....

How are you contending with the employee base you have built in the boom times now that we are in the bust times?

I don't have an employee base....but I do wish to keep the guys busy that have been doing my work....

It will come back but it will come back minus the BS.....or the aloofness .....the guys with the passion and desire and talent will be back....and then there are some that need to get into another field.....there are too many people in it.....and the same goes for builders....

[Joel_Stewart]

I get an email every few weeks from http://www.golfconstructionnews.com/gcn/ and they make it sound like business is booming.  

[Jeff_Brauer]

Like Ian and Mike I am downsized (a process that has really been ongoing since 9-11, when I dumped secretaries and excess draftsman (albeit not as quickly as I should have)

I am a happy camper, with one of the few domestic 18 hole projects going on. I just got off the plane from a rain soaked site visit where I did everything but run and slide in the mud because it was so much fun.

My phone has started to ring a little bit. For a while, I picked it up five or six times a day just to see if it was working!  We have some small stuff and even a few prelim routing plans for housing developers in the works.

I don't think we will have a 90's style golf boom for another 60 years, but it will pick up somewhat.

[Bill_McBride]

How are you contending with the employee base you have built in the boom times now that we are in the bust times?

I don't have an employee base....but I do wish to keep the guys busy that have been doing my work....

But what about Charlie?  Who's telling the really good dirty jokes? 

[cary lichtenstein]

The world is contracting, so there is nothing to be ashamed of when your business contracts...it happened to me in 1980 when interest rates went to 23% and my business which grew every year, dropped 33% and I owed $6 million to the bank. Taught me a great lesson, took me 18 months and I paid off the bank and never overleveraged myself again.

Bad things happen and this downturn is awful for nearly every business on the planet.

[Jay Kirkpatrick]

accidental post