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JESII

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Rubic's Cube Architecture?
« Reply #50 on: May 02, 2009, 10:14:59 PM »
It's only the "probablistic / dynamic risk tolerances" that interest me...and it's not even measuring them that interests me...It's the fact that we'll still go for a shot that we cannot pull off more than 1 in 20 times that supports my philosophy that "fun" shots are also attempts to shoot the lowest score possible.

Rich Goodale

Re: Rubic's Cube Architecture?
« Reply #51 on: May 02, 2009, 10:50:25 PM »
Good stuff, Mark and Jim

Risk preferences vary not only by individual but by the situation.  Recently I tried and pulled off a shot which I probably had less than a 1 in 100 chance of pulling off, and for which failure would have cost me at least two shots.  I tried it because it was the 18th hole and my match was already over and we were playing for fun.  The only cost of my failure was the price of a ProV1x.  The benefit of my very unlikely success is a memory that will live with me forever.

If, however, I had been faced with that shot on the 18th hole of a stroke play tournament, and I knew or sensed that a bogey on the hole would be sufficient for me to achieve my objective (whether it be winning the event, being in the money, or just breaking 80 or whatever) I would never have attempted the shot, taking the pitch out to wedge distance alternative that was available.  On the other hand, if I had been playing a match and was one down, and my opponent was on the green 45-feet away where anything more than a three putt by him was unlikely, I would probably also try the shot as it was my only realistic way of setting up a situation on the next shot which might change my odds of winning the hole from 500-1 down to something realistically achievable (say 3-1 if I hit the ball to 20 feet, as I did).  For a third situation, if I were one up and my opponent had laid up (for whatever reason) I would probably chip out and take my chances of halving the hole.

So, we do not always try to score the lowest score possible, but rather plan and attempt shots based on a (usually subconscious) calculation of both probabilities and preferences.

Sean_A

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Rubic's Cube Architecture?
« Reply #52 on: May 03, 2009, 01:17:43 AM »
Rich

You are right.  Lowest possible score is too simplistic.  Strategy changes with changed circumstances or even when we play matchplay.  My point is that strategy follows the player, not the course.  The course is there to provide choices which make choosing a strategy more difficult, but it doesn't make our choices.

Ciao 
New plays planned for 2024: Nothing

Rich Goodale

Re: Rubic's Cube Architecture?
« Reply #53 on: May 03, 2009, 01:37:34 AM »
Rich

You are right.  Lowest possible score is too simplistic.  Strategy changes with changed circumstances or even when we play matchplay.  My point is that strategy follows the player, not the course.  The course is there to provide choices which make choosing a strategy more difficult, but it doesn't make our choices.

Ciao 

Yes, Sean, that has been the point which I have argued on this site for narly 10 years.  Golf courses or golf holes are not "strategic."  Golfers are.

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