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Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #100 on: March 13, 2009, 09:37:58 AM »
Neil...

That argument that wind and solar are intermittent is a false one...the technology is not an on and off thing...

Wind and solar are already providing several countries with up to 20% of their energy needs....a 20% drop in our oil consumption would be huge and it is very doable..
We are no longer a country of laws.

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #101 on: March 13, 2009, 09:51:38 AM »
Neil..

As you know since 1880 there has been a 22 centimeter rise in ocean levels...so what if they have not risen in the last 2 years....as for your temperature data...gee...since 1998 we have had a couple of cooler years...again, so what? The long term trend is warmer...

I said several posts ago, that we can argue all day whether it is man caused or not, but you can not dispute the fact that it is getting warmer and things are happening to the oceans, to frozen areas, and sea level, that we must address sooner or later....

And to me, that is the biggest failure of the global warming skeptics....they would rather argue that since 1998 it has been colder  than seek some solutions....
We are no longer a country of laws.

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #102 on: March 13, 2009, 10:04:07 AM »
Neil..

Since you are "cherry picking" your data....no sea level rise since 2006....tropical storms diminished during the past year, cooler trend since 1998....

Why not post some long term graphs?

Sea rise.....temperature....coral reef size.

Why not overlay the climate reporting center's temperatures (the one's you say are faulty due to location of recording devices) with the satellite data you posted?
We are no longer a country of laws.

Craig Van Egmond

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #103 on: March 13, 2009, 10:07:34 AM »

" That argument that wind and solar are intermittent is a false one...the technology is not an on and off thing..."

Craig Sweet,

    Does the wind really blow all the time in Montana?  Here in Oklahoma it is fairly windy and we have a pretty large base of wind farms, but it doesn't blow all the time.  As for solar we still only get 10-12 hours of sun each day. If you lived in Oklahoma and you had a windmill and solar panels on your house you would do fine most of the year, but then we are blessed. :)  Doesn't work so well in other parts of the country. What we need is some really great battery technologies and ones that don't create nasty disposal problems.

    


Sean Remington (SBR)

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #104 on: March 13, 2009, 10:09:23 AM »
   I can go along with Ian on this.  For me the flags go up when politicians make movies and proclaim that the "debate is over".  The money and polics have pushed the GW agenda to the point of emotional and religious following.  Does anyone have a problem with Mr. Gore's movie being shown to our kids?
  
   Industry can go to far and has been caught abusing natural resouces for profit. "Silent Spring" was a wake up call and did serve to help stop the ignorant pollution of our world.  However environmentalism can go to far as well. For instance, in this months issue of "Audubon" there is an article "Seeding the Ocean".  There is a company in San Francisco that want to seed the southern Pacific with iron (Fe) in hope of causing massive phytoplankton blooms. These artificially caused blooms are expected to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.  Of course this company, Climos, would like to sell this potential carbon sink as carbon offsets on the carbon markets.  Sounds like environmentalism motivated by profit.  Is this the answer?

    Somewhere in the middle is conservation - "The controlled use and systematic protection of natural resources."   I can live with that.

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #105 on: March 13, 2009, 10:16:13 AM »
Craig E...

You have heard of storage?

Like I said, there are several countries...and I'm sure they do not have 365 days of wind and blue sky....generating 20% or more of their total energy needs from wind and solar...
We are no longer a country of laws.

Craig Van Egmond

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #106 on: March 13, 2009, 10:18:24 AM »

Craig S.

Apparently you don't read so well..

"What we need is some really great battery technologies and ones that don't create nasty disposal problems."

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #107 on: March 13, 2009, 10:19:35 AM »
Neil...

You aren't serious when you say the ice caps aren't getting smaller?   Yet another "cherry pick" of data?  Last year the arctic sea ice did not "melt" as much as the previous year?  

You seem to view global warming like a weather report...I guess because it didn't snow in Missoula yesterday, winter is over?  ;D
We are no longer a country of laws.

Sean Remington (SBR)

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #108 on: March 13, 2009, 10:20:18 AM »
   So let me get this right.  We don't dare drill for oil of the coast of California becasue ....?   But we are willing to cover how many square miles of earth with wind farms?

   Further, it is not good to build new nuclear plants becasue  .....?   But how many square miles of solar panels will it take to equal the output of a nuclear plant?  

    I am not trying to be funny I really don't know the ansers.

Sean Remington (SBR)

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #109 on: March 13, 2009, 10:26:49 AM »
    Has anyone ever looked into geothermal energy?  This sourse doens't seem to get the air time that  wind and solar do.

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #110 on: March 13, 2009, 10:31:22 AM »
Craig E...

My understanding is the energy generated by wind and solar goes into the "grid"...and the grid is fed by other forms of energy....when wind drops off, hydro (for example) increases....

I  have a friend living off the grid...he has a small windmill and some ancient solar...lots of batteries in his basement....a small gas powered generator...his home is probably 2200 sq ft....he has never had a problem meeting his energy needs.
We are no longer a country of laws.

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #111 on: March 13, 2009, 10:34:02 AM »
Sean..

there are many places using geothermal...I think Iceland is something like 90% geothermal..

As for wind and solar...the next time you fly over America check out the scab land with nothing there... :)

I remember one of my environmental friends getting all worked up over a cell tower....but now I see she has a cell phone... ;D
We are no longer a country of laws.

Sean Remington (SBR)

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #112 on: March 13, 2009, 10:52:12 AM »
Craig,

    I do recall that Iceland has done amazing things with geothermal.  Curious that this form of energy is not used in the same discussions as wind and solar.  It sounds very safe and efficient. 

    The cell phone example is probably not real close to what I have seen of wind farms.  I know the Kennedy family was not willing to have a wind farm within view of their compound.   I guess if you are willling to cover scab land with wind farms that is fine for some.  My guess it that there is some endangered species trying to make a comeback out there.  Anyway, it still doesn't tell me why I should be against nuclear plants and off shore drilling. 

     Has anyone done the math? How many square miles of wind farm does it take?  I haven't been to Mr. Pickens website.  Isn't he a capitalist?

Craig Van Egmond

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #113 on: March 13, 2009, 11:06:07 AM »

Craig,

       I could only find 2 countries, Germany and Denmark, who make 20% of their power from renewable energy sources. Is that several?  Denmark has a pretty impressive goal of being completely energy independent and generating 50% from wind power. Right now the US, with Texas in the lead is the fastest growing and generates the most total power from wind.

       Your friend is living my wife's dream, living off the grid that is. Its becoming more and more possible.

Rich Goodale

Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #114 on: March 13, 2009, 11:22:43 AM »
Sean

For somebody who has checked out the numbers, see http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/index.html

As for Iceland, they are doing great with geo-thermal, but it helps if your whole country is an active volcano and you only have 250,000 people to worry about.

As for ice sheets, there are two in the world--Greenland and Antarctica.  10% of the frozen water volume is in Greenland and 10% in Western Antarctica (that finger like projection that is relatively accessible from South America).  80% is in the largely inaccessible Eastern Antarctica.  As I understand it, Greenland and WA have been shrinking in recent years, but EA is accreting (i.e. growing).  The net effect is relatively small.  Also, as somone pointed out above, the North polar icecap's status re: sea levels and the topic of the thread are irrelevant, as floating ice and melted floating ice displace the same volume of water.

Rich

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #115 on: March 13, 2009, 11:25:32 AM »
Craig E...

Norway claims 60% of their current energy is renewable...

I am heading for the mountain and some turns while the snow last... ;D

When I get back I will post some other countries...
We are no longer a country of laws.

Jeff Taylor

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #116 on: March 13, 2009, 12:02:59 PM »
Somewhere in the middle is conservation - "The controlled use and systematic protection of natural resources."   I can live with that.

That would be the price mechanism. Maybe we should use up fossil fuels as quickly as possible. Prices will go up as reserves go down. The incentive to change will be automatic. Most already agree that it's too late to turn the warming boat around especially with other countries not playing fairly. Let's just us it all up.

Sean Remington (SBR)

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #117 on: March 13, 2009, 12:08:26 PM »
Rich, interesting reading on sustainablilty.  I guess I am trying to get a picture of what the world will look like when we are done with oil and cool.  Does evey house have a wind generator and solar panels?  This may work in the suburbs but what about cities? 


Lou_Duran

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #118 on: March 13, 2009, 12:18:28 PM »
Rich Goodale,

Thanks for your link.  It will give me something to do this weekend while I am couped up due to weather and my better half is away.

It would be great to look at this fascinating and very complicated topic dispassionately.  Actually, with the way the global financial and economic systems are coming apart, a sober, cautious look is a necessity.

BTW, I subscribe to the views expressed by golf industry members Andrew and Hancock (sorry Ian and Joe if this causes you stress).  Conservation is nearly always a good thing and next to no one can argue against doing things better and smarter to get the most out of the inputs (are we talking about productivity here?).


Craig Van Egmond

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #119 on: March 13, 2009, 12:23:56 PM »

Craig S,

         Over 90% (some report 99%) of Norway's power is Hydroelectric.  Lucky them.


Rich Goodale

Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #120 on: March 13, 2009, 12:44:23 PM »
Sean

Vis a vis electricity generation, nuclear power plants can easily take up any slack in oil and coal (there is, however, a huge amount of coal waiting to be mined if clean technology advances as it should).  If you want to do solar, the best idea I know of is one posited by somebody I worked for many years ago, Peter Glaser, who envisions huge arrays of solar panels in geosynchronous orbit, beamed down energy by microwave to receiving/distribution stations on earth.

The real problem (as McCarthy indicates in his maths) is transportation (i.e. automobiles).  Without any signifcant improvement in battery technology (although there was a glimmer of hope on this yesterday), electric cars will only be good for short hauls.

I'm optimistic, as I have a deep respect for the powers of human imagination, but I am not a scientist, just an observer of science who like Joe Friday is looking for "the facts, Ma'am, jsut the facts..........."

Mike Vegis @ Kiawah

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #121 on: March 13, 2009, 12:54:32 PM »
If you go to the Aquarium here in downtown Charleston, they have a display on the South Carolina coastline throughout history.  There is on one display -- I think it was 10,000 years ago -- where the coastline was about mid-state near Columbia (about 1 hour's drive from Augusta for those unfamiliar with SC geography).  Ocean levels rise and fall through eons of time.  We just inhabit a sliver of that time.

Neil_Crafter

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #122 on: March 13, 2009, 04:59:05 PM »
Craig Sweet
If you look at a graph of the temperature through the 20th century you will see that there have been cooling periods followed by warming periods, followed by cooling etc. There is no straight line. The point I was trying to make is that the latest warming trend appears to have peaked in 1998 and has levelled off quite significantly in the 10 years since then. You can call this "cherry picking" if you like, I don't think it is. Certainly the last 150 years or so is an overall warming trend as the earth has come out of the Little Ice Age period of significantly colder weather that was most evident in the 16th and 17th centuries, by 1850 the earth had begun to warm again. And has been gradually warming since then. So yes, I know the longer term trend. But this began a long time before the major industrialisation and the widespread use of fossil fuels of the 20th century.

As for solar and wind power, by definition these are intermittent, despite what you say, and cannot supply power to a local grid 24/7. You still need base load power sources of coal, natural gas, nuclear, and as someone mentioned, some areas are fortunate to have hydroelectric power, all of which supply power 24/7. Geothermal will only work where the geology is conducive. The only point I was making was that in order to replace coal and gas as power sources, a fuel will need to be found that can operate 24/7 as a base load provider. Any ideas what that might be.

Mike Vegis
Very true, we do just inhabit a sliver of time where sea levels - and our coastlines - are where they are. 8000 - 10000 years ago, when we were in the midst of a major ice age, sea levels were up to 80m lower than today. Think of all that new coastal property! Except a lot of it was covered in glaciers.

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Climate change and sea level
« Reply #123 on: March 13, 2009, 07:57:06 PM »
Neil...

I think we will have a combination of power sources coming into the grid for at least another 25-35 years....

Perhaps the future is some sort of hydrogen energy..both for our cars and our homes.
We are no longer a country of laws.