Has the recession really arrived

[Paul Richards]

In addition, interestingly, Kemper has put Kemper Lakes on the auction block.  

Host of the PGA Championship won by Payne Stewart in '89, Senior Tour events, Buy.com, as well as others, it's interesting to me that this would be up for auction right now.

Apparently, the owners are hoping to sell it to a buyer willing to leave it as a golf course.

[Bill_McBride]

Interestingly enough, I believe that in some circumstances private clubs are much more competitive economically than CCFAD's.  A private club which gets a lot of play from a golf membership of 500 can be well-maintained and offer great value to its members.  My wife and I between us play probably 20 rounds a month.  Our dues, club storage, other fees average $400 / month.  That's just $20 / round.  Imagine what it would cost us if we played a variety of public-access facilities that averaged perhaps $60 / round.  And we can walk anytime we want - although not much in August on the Gulf Coast.  I believe there is opportunity for private clubs in this economic climate rather than severe problems, it's just a question of marketing and management.

Has the recession really arrived?  You bet.

[Jeff_McDowell]

John,

I agree with you on some points. It's not accurate to use a single outlier to characterize the golf market. That was not what I was trying to do. I was simply trying to say that the situation is more complicated than what most people think.

You are also correct that this course is cannibalizing from other courses. People are driving from Brainerd and St. Cloud to play the course, because the course is better and the price is better.

But I do not agree with you that this type of facility is bad for golf. I refuse to believe that an affordable golf course that provides a good game is bad for golf.

[Matt_Ward]

Scott:

Thanks for the correction -- not much of a difference in the night life between Toano and Providence Forge though.

The issue for me on this thread boils down to this -- REAL quality still sells -- CHEAP AND LIFELESS imitation doesn't. There's few of the former and plenty of the latter and this "soft" economy (I sound like a George W. Bush spinner) is not going to support those.

I'll say this again -- plenty of the top places will not easily submit to lesser fees because it will harden the players they get to the belief that those type of low fees will now be a permanent part of the scene. In the long run that's death by drip-drop over the long haul.

[John_Conley]

Bill:

Non-golfing spouse and an infant child.  I play just four times a month.  Daily fee options abound for $20-25 in summer and $25-45 in winter.  If course conditions are substandard at one place I'm free to play elsewhere.

The challenge clubs face isn't getting guys like you to join, it's getting guys like me.

Nobody loves to play golf more than I do, yet it makes sense for me to remain unattached.

[A.G._Crockett]

Amen, brother!  The vast majority of golfers will always opt for a lower cost, assuming that the differences in conditions are not just extreme.
Here in Atlanta, several of the CCFAD's have been sold or are currently on the market.  The same is true in Myrtle Beach, and I'm sure around the country as well.  In some cases, it may be that the corp. that owns the course has other recession-related difficulties and is selling the course for quick cash, rather than because the course itself is losing money.
In any case, recession aside, it is hard to imagine a great future for $100 courses as the baby boomers age, retire and have less disposable income.  Therefore the future might again belong to clubs and munis just like the past did.

[W.H. Cosgrove]

We seem to be missing something.  The numbers are clearly not good but then golf has always had that elitest side to it. Affordable municipal golf aside, the more upscale CCFADS are simply expensive places to play golf.  I hesitate to use the analogy of bedding the best looking blond in the bar but I will.  Once you complete the hunt, it takes something more to return.  Washington National opened in the Seattle area to a great load of publicity.  I played it and thought it passable.  But I really don't have much desire to go back.  

How does the Cheers song go, "Where everyone knows your name."  When I travel and play, you go to a course play and move on.  There is no social aspect that ties me to the place.  When I come home, I can go tothe club and find a game.  The pro shop treats me well and the staff in the lounge know my club number.  

On a trip to the east coast this summer, I spent some time speaking with a pro about their program.  He has a pro whose job description includes the task of introducing the juniors to the regular members.  The club is thriving.  What we seek in this post 911 internet boom age is a place to quietly escape from the everyday stress in our lives.  If the club doesn't supply this then it has no value.

Could it be that to survive too few players in the middle of a recession that the management and staff of a club must supply a place to play that is safe and relaxing.  A place where our children are given the 'right' message and where I can forget about the market.

Now HOW IN THE HELL DO WE DO THAT?

[Jeff Goldman]

I think the problem is clearly overbuilding for the market.  The Chicago area has seen a whole bunch of so-called CCFADs opened in the last few years -- think of Thunderhawk, The Glen Club, Stonewall Orchard, a couple south of the city, and the new Bolingbrook and Foxford Hills and adding those to the other relatively new CCFADs (Kemper, Ruffled Feathers, Prarie Landing, Cantigny, Pine Meadow to name just a few) means a lot of competition for the high end.  Moreover, while these are for the most part good courses, given the time I'd rather drive an extra 90 minutes and play any course in Kohler, which are way better (except maybe the Irish course), if I'm going to go high-end (incidently, why hasn't Kohler received criticism usually reserved for CCFADs?  Isn't it a CCFAD?  Could it be that it is relatively unpretentious, the golf is great and the people there are terrific to deal with?).  

As for joining a club, I would actually consider it if the course were really good and classic - the newer architects work is easy to find - but I wouldn't have the first clue as to how to go about it.  

[A_Clay_Man]

Shivas nails the demographics!

Someone had a good profitable idea some years ago and a bunch of people did, what I used to call the run run run philosophy, and tried to get in on the action. I can advise all of you that when these runners run the other way and are scrambling to get out, thats when you want in. Sounds like soon.

[Mashie1]

Corporate entertainment dollars are very tight.  Many of the upscale courses have a high percentage of corporate play; corporate outtings are down 20% - 30% in many markets, the bread and butter of a lot of operations the past 10 years.

Mashie1

 

[rob_mauer]

I believe there will be a fire sale on alot of golf properties in the northeast in the near future. In New jersey there are 9 new courses being built or completed since 2001. The daily fee privately owed courses are now being squeezed by the county courses which are less than half the price and just as fun and challenging. Hunterdon county(Heron Glen) opened July 2002. For a county resident its $25.00 with a cart, somerset county opening a new 27 hole facility. Same price $25.00 during the week with a cart. $13.00 to walk after 4 pm. Can a privately owned daily fee course compete? well just look at the specials they are running in the local papers.. 2 for 1 and reduced greens fees. trust me the time has come the saturation has begun. golf properties will be for sale soon..
How many more people will be joining private clubs for $100,000.00 initiation? Everyone thinks they have the next augusta or pine valley. The truth is, most of the new courses being built are fun for the average golfer and some are much more fun and challenging then your average private club. I might be wrong but I don't see alot of courses getting their 40,000 rounds a year to keep the dept service down.

[Don_Mahaffey]

I've managed a public golf facility for 6 years in AZ and it has been tougher to make a profit each succeeding year. Rounds are down and the only way to make it is to run cheaper, but if you keep sucking the paint off the walls then the course goes downhill and is worth less. We've managed, but other properties in our area are not anywhere close to the condition they once were. But, you know what's amazing? There are three more golf courses in the local pipeline and each one received a glowing pro forma from (a large national non profit golf consulting firm I don't want to mention for fear of...well you know). I'm trying to figure out how a new course will do 50,000 rounds in it's first year when everyone else is struggling to 40K. Who writes these things, and more importantly, why do people actually believe them?
I believe what's happening to golf is simply that the rules of business are finally starting to apply. Supply and demand will rule the day, those who think it will not will soon be separated from their money.

[sandwizard77]

our area has more golf courses/per population than
anywhere in the usa. YORK COUNTY,PA.
 now every course advertising "coupons" to get
the needed play. the "get rich quick scheme" of
building a golf course is on the way OUT!!!
  we have specials for different times of the day.
early bird,afternoon,twilight. all the COURSES ARE
STRUGGLING.

[allysmith]

Very interesting comments on a golfing recession.

I thoroughly agree that a downturn in 'fashionability' of the game has occured. Perhaps its a Tiger Sourge cooling off period?

The comments on the game returning to its traditionality with good manners and etiquette to the fore can be thought of as a dream but its better than the nightmare of the games high standards being lost through the 'instant' golfers that arrived in the 80s & 90s being continued into the new millenium.

However if you guys Stateside think you have a golf recession just spare a thought for us in Scotland this year.

The weather has been terrible, tourism is down through stock market crashes. The terrible events of 11th Sept last year have made people wary of air travel (and rightly so).

The picture is pretty grim even fantastic courses like St Andrews Bay and Kings Barns are having to half their prices to get people on the courses.

Still 'Things can only get better'

[Jerry Kluger]

I played Stonehouse on Wednesday and Thursday and there was almost no play on the course.  As a single on Wednesday I played through two groups but what I saw that distressed me even more was the condition of the course.  Many of the tee boxes had little if any grass left on them and the fairways were very spotty.  The greens were still okay but the rest of the green complexes was either weeds or dirt.  They have dropped their green fees where I played for $39 and I think they have also cut back on maintenance to the same extent.  Perhaps we are going to be losing alot of courses at least in so far as their playability.
Florida is a separate story as I have been going there for more than twenty years and Summers are always slow.  They have been offering Summer memberships at some of the better clubs for nominal amounts for years.  The season is December 15 until Easter and after that bargains are quite common.  West Palm Beach has always been a great value while Emerald Dunes has been at the upper ending in pricing.  Polo Trace has had probably 4 different owners in the last five years and its pricing has been all over the place.  They offered a membership last year for $100 and brought the fee to play down to $100 and I was there in January and they had a good amount of play.  
I believe that the recession has played a part in many of these factors but there are other factors to be considered.  Bandon Dunes and Pacific Dunes are still a golf destination and a major trip from much of the country.  They offer you two courses and some accomodations but not too much more, and I know alot of guys who just will not walk.  Kohler is beautiful but very expensive and out of the way.  A place like Kiawah is 30-40 minutes from Charleston, offers you 5 courses, and is far more reasonably priced.  
We can blame these things on the recession but I think that that golfers want value and they want to go and play a variety of courses for 4 or 5 days, and I for one want to play more than 18 holes per day and some places are more attractive with those requirements.  I think that Sea Island is now an ideal trip and Jacksonville seems really good.  You also have Pinehurst and many other areas in the East.
I would be curious whether play is down in Ireland or Scotland where you have some many courses, a relatively small area to cover, and overall a good value.    

[THuckaby2]

More testimony here in the US is that each of our local new "CCFAD"s here in San Jose, CA are indeed ghost towns on the weekends, have been for several months.  Each has responded to this with all sorts of coupons, specials, etc.  The new local private club is struggling mightily to attract any members, two existing ones have memberships for sale galore, and we wait to see what will happen with each of these as time goes on....

I do need to respond to my friend Dan King's mention of Los Lagos, though.  Yes, many people do walk there, despite the horrific routing that a certain local golf loudmouth was quoted on in the SJ Mercury about...

(click on first article)
http://www.playloslagos.com/news/index.shtml

But that is not any testament to the disappearance of cart-ball, it's more a reflection of the normal "clientele" at this, a very short, relatively inexpensive golf course.  When one pays $29 to play (which is just about the cheapest available golf anywhere near San Jose) one is not going to normally shell out $13 more for a cart.  That's just way too much relative to the green fee.  

So people do walk there, and suffer.  But let's just not hold up Los Lagos as an example of anything other than how environmental restrictions ruin potentially good golf sites.

And Dan, you need only look across Yerba Buena Rd. to see that cart-ball is here to stay for awhile longer... see the new course being built on the side of that hill?  That ain't there for walking purposes....

Oh well.  I neither condone nor agree with any of this.  But it is what it is, here in the Bay Area, sadly.

TH

[BCrosby]

Having just returned from Scotland, my impression is that the recession is having an impact there. The only course I found to be full was TOC.  I was able to walk on Kingsbarns, The New, Royal Aberdeen, W. Gailes, N. Berwick and Cruden Bay. No waiting, the starters only wanted to know when I was ready to go.

Even Royal Dornoch was not terribly busy. A group I had been put in with for a 7:30 time didn't show up.  My caddy and I had the course to ourselves until no. 11 when we noticed groups playing nos. 5 and 6. It couldn't have been more perfect for a visitor. The course seemed a little busier on my afternoon round.

Everyone there confirmed that it was a very slow summer in Scotland. They blamed the rain in part, but most thought 9/11 was the real culprit.

From my perspective, it was a delightful time to visit. No hassles, easy access.

Bob

[Mike_Cirba]

Some interesting commentary from back in the day when we though that was a recession.

[TEPaul]

Ah, yeah! 

And if the consensus back then was that no, the recession has not arrived----well, it sure has now!   

That seems to be a fact in most anyone's definition. And if one wants to discuss with me the reasons why it's arrived I'll tell them it's all George Bush's fault. Matter of fact, anything at all that's wrong today is George Bush's fault. Is that really the case? I don't know but it's an easy answer and I'm sticking with it. Now I hear the Little Shrub is going on a speaking tour. Well, I won't be listening. If I never hear from those clowns again it won't be soon enough. 

Now, just watch the conservative neo-cons on here freak out over this post. Don't bother---it's just a game guys, just a game!