Patrick,
How does a par 4 like Riveria's 10th or TOC's 12th produce such wide scoring disparity when there is no water or OB to be found?
Who says it produces wide scoring disparities ?
What evidence is there to support this ?
I would imagine that the club probably has scoring statistics that enables them to handicap the holes.
Bunkers and small or crazy greens can take you pretty far. Wind helps, too.
There's a great example of a good waterless AND BUNKERLESS par 5 not 15 miles from where I write this that has a great scoring spread.
How do you know that it has a great scoring spread ?
I wish I had some good pictures, or could do it justice in a description. It does have OB, but its immaterial to what makes the hole a great example (if it were removed you'd still have the same scoring spread)
How can the removal of OB NOT affect scoring on the hole ?
Wind - you tee off nearly 100 feet above the level of the fairway - and angles - there is a mound in front of the green that dominates second shot strategy into the very wide but very shallow fall-away green - are what makes this hole.
I mostly see 4s and 5s there, but I've had more 6s than I care to think about, and have a few eagles and the odd 7 for my trouble as well. That's about as good of a scoring spread as you are going to want, you can't get below 3 for a normal par 5 score.
A scoring spread isn't determined by the rare eagle or double bogey.
The determination is based on compiling and weighting the scores.
If there are 2 eagles, 4 double bogeys, 800 bogeys, 600 pars and 100 birdies, I wouldn't consider that a wide or a good scoring spread.
To go very much beyond 7 on the other side for better players on a true par 4 1/2 you need to have killer rough or bunkers, or some futility feature like repeated wedges in the creek at ANGC or back and forth chipping as can happen when the green speeds are really up at Pinehurst #2.
# 15 at ANGC will produce eagles, birdies, pars, bogeys, double bogeys and higher, but, water plays the major role in the scoring outcome.
On # 13 the creek AND woods can produce a wide scoring margin.
Patrick, there was mention in another thread a few days ago that TOC's 12th had the largest scoring spread of any of the holes in the last Open. I don't have stats for Riveria's 10th, but I would be surprised if it isn't tops amongst the holes in that tournament most years.
I'd wager more people would agree with me about Riveria's 10th than disagree, so let me turn this back on you and ask you what proof YOU have that I'm WRONG?
As for the OB on the hole I describe, its there but doesn't come much into play for anyone for whom this hole plays as a par 4 1/2 - its an internal course OB (yuck, I know) to protect people on another green. If there was no OB and you hit into that area you would have a nasty sidehill lie in knee deep rough, assuming you found your ball at all. It typically only comes into play for short hitters who miss their drives and try to make up for it on their second shots.
Since I haven't played the hole 1506 times, your example scoring spread is wrong. I have played it perhaps 75 times, and I'd guess I have something like the following breakdown (and see similar results from other long-hitting single digit handicap golfers I've played with there)
eagles 5%
birdies 25%
pars 55%
bogies 10%
doubles & worse 5%
And no, I can't produce exact figures for that, at least not without devoting a lot more effort to an example than I'm willing to do.
Did Notre Dame teach you that proper debating technique involves making bold statements without proof, then when challenged to dismiss for lack of proof any counter-statements made by others? If so, you may want to seek a refund