We always talk about the top drives on tour. The average drive is still about 290. I know some Tour players who hit it about 280. I know some guys who tried Q school who say pros don't hit it as far as we think, save the days when they are really on.
I also know from studying scale maps and aerial photos, and research by Frank Thomas that most of us overestimate how far we hit the ball by a lot.
It leaves the question of how far do most courses put bunkers (save some give and take, and adjusted for wind, etc.) for good, but just under Tour Pro level.
Speaking of being really on, my drives have lately varied all over the place.
When my swing is grooved I can still get 260. On another day I probably hit the weak fan out about 230 all day. Every once in a while, I get that miraculous long drive. The other day, on a downwind 379 yard hole, I was 52 from the middle. Even counting the slight dogleg that I cut over, that's well over 300 yards.
What is your realistic expectation for carry and roll on a typical tee shot, no wind, not in Colorado, etc.