"The Pros May Make a Mockery of this Year's Open"

[GeoffreyChilds]

Matt

mea culpa- I never meant to imply that Fenway set up under any conditions could approach the difficulty of the Black set up under US Open conditions.  You are absolutely right about the brute strength required to play at a high level from the tips at Bethpage.

I've been playing the Black since 1969 and it was the first course that made me think that there is really something special about certain golf courses.  It NEVER fails to leave me drained at the end of a round.  It is an examination every time and the bunkering is awesome and very difficult. I think the combination of hitting from the rough coupled with the very large deep bunkers could prove to be an interesting combination. Long bunker shots will be very common come June.

For the record Bethpage Black in my opinion is a marvelous routing on really superior property with many world class holes.  The sign on the first tee is no overstatement.  It is MORE golf course then most single digit handicaps can handle and the pros will have their hands full with a US Open setup. Still I think that someone having a good week could score well because of the greens.

Fenway on the other hand is more of a joy to play and there are more NEW things occurring each time I play there then new things I see at Bethpage.  I think this is due to the greens complexes. I'm not saying that I rank Fenway above the Black only that Fenway has certain features that I like better in a golf course. Also, if you can get by #'s 2 (450), 5 (458), 6 (240), 10 (451), 12 (454), 14 (440?), 16 (431) with a good score then you deserve a couple of birdies on a few other holes.  It's the best combination of brute and sporty that I know.

[Jeff_Lewis]

Over/under is -12.

[Mark_Fine]

Jeff,
You pushed it up from -10?  I can't argue.  I plan to play it before the Open to make a final analysis.  I'm still taking bets at -10!
Mark

[Jamie Duffner]

It's been a long time since I've posted on this site, but I check in regularly.  This topic, as some may know, is near and dear to my heart.  -10 or -12 as the over/under is ridiculous.  To undersetimate the routing of the Black and its 6 par 4's over 460, and another 3 in the 420 - 450 range with quirky angles where the ball must be shaped to keep in the fairway, should not be dismissed.  Consider greens at 12 on the stimp where most players will either be hitting a mid to long iron, or be coming out of the rough, and they will be hard to hold.  A 30 ft putt on flatish, but very firm greens, is no bargain.  And I agree wholeheartedly with Matt Ward about the greens.  There are a handful of very benign greens, a handful with more than enough undulation, and the remainder fall somwhere in between.  

My final point would be hole locations.  Unlike Audgusta or several recent US Open sites (see Southern Pines), the green speeds eliminate some very interesting and difficult hole locations.  At Bethpage, with some very severe greenside bunkers and not to mention rough, hole locations will be cut in some interesting spots.  As an example, a hole location back left on the 3rd hole, cut right over the bunker will be extremely hard to access.  And the 3rd is one of those early holes that is supposed to be a spot where you need score.  There are several greens where the hole will be difficult to access, it will be most interesting to see how a pro attacks those holes.

[Paul Richards]

Jeff;

I doubt highly that the USGA will "allow" anyone to shoot
-12 on this course.

They really like the fact that it's on a public course, and with
all of the controversy over technology, to let anyone shoot
that score would only make the USGA look worse.

I'll take the OVER.

[r w]

Here is tour pro perspective:

http://www.usga.org/press/2002/roberts.html

[Gene Greco]

I am simply amazed reading this stuff!

The Black Course easy under US Open conditions?

I foresee many double bogeys on #s 5, 12, 15 and many bogies on 6, 10, 11, 16 and 17.

 I see three putts galore on #8, 11, 12, 15.

Guys in contention on Sunday will puke their guts out walking up #15 and then up to #16 not only from the searing heat and humidity, the pressure of the situation but also from the long severe incline. No way for Casey Martin to get to this green and subsequent tee WITH a cart.

Birdie bonanza on #2,13, 14 only. #4 as well IF the pros are smart enough to play out to the right on their second.

Those who survive #15 on Sunday will be there at the end at three to five under par. I'll be there when it happens.

[Mark_Fine]

About hearing Roberts impression maybe (-12) is more reasonable then (-10)    He thinks all but two of the greens are basically flat!  If the course is playing firm, length will not be a factor.  We all should have learned that from the Atlanta AC and Torrey Pines.  

[GeoffreyChilds]

Gene

I think your analysis is about right - for the field as an average. The average scores will be typically high. Just how high will depend on weather and course set up.

Do you think that 1, 2 or a few players who are on their game for the week could shoot a low (by US Open standards) score?

What is your judgement about short game recovery skills required (not counting the bunkers) on holes like 1, 2, 5, 7, 9 when you do miss the greens? Aren't there more places (including long) to miss the greens on and still have a chance to recover for par then most other "championship" (I hate to use that term) venues?

[Mark_Fine]

One question I should have asked before I made my (-10) prediction, is the course going to still play as par 71 or are they going to make #4 a par four?

[Gene Greco]

Mark:

    #7 will play as a par 4 of about 490 yds.

Geoff:

    Absolutely. But that's true on any given week on tour. Sure someone could go low but as you say the field as a whole will suffer and unless there is a hot round I see 3 to 5 under as the winner.
    Sunday pin placements for holes you mentioned (1,2,7 and 9):
      #1 - back right. ground is as hard as a rock long on 1. greedy players will will be punished as USGA will shave this area in back of green so long ball will continue to roll to the 5 inch stuff. miss right on approach in the bunker and slope og green is away from player on a green which is like slate. plenty more bogeys than everyone here thinks.

       #2 - pin front right or left. recovery should be no problem unless one goes short left on approach.

       #7 - pin front right. most players will hit mid irons into 490 yd par 4 dogleg. bunker on right will catch fair share with again, slope of green away from player. balls hit long will have downhill short pitch out of the high stuff. more bogeys than expected.

        #9 - pin either front or back right. long  is a bogey as area on small hump surrounding back of green will be shaved with hardpan awaiting. downhill pitch off this area will be challenging. balls hit right in bunker with pin cut tight against it will also claim a few more players.

    The Black Course is a big intimidating course but it also has many subtle areas to challenge even the best and I'm sure the USGA will utilize this to the fullest extent possible.  

[GeoffreyChilds]

Gene

Excellent analysis- you've been there a few times too. Not sure about front left on #2.  You get a nice flat putt from 20 feet right and long of that pin. I don't see too many balls going short left of that green.

Lets hope the drought continues through June. The major defenses of the course for that class of player depend on firm conditions and distance control on all the aerial approaches over the bunkers.

[Mark_Fine]

Would anyone agree that the course's best defense might be the fact that probably 90% or more of the field have probably never seen or played the golf course.  Obviously, these guys learn quickly but again I go back to the greens.  One of the most difficult aspects of playing a new course well (for these guys at least) is reading the greens.  Yes some of the greens will pick up some subtle breaks when they roll at 12 or 13, but I'm not sure enough to confuse the best in the world.  Roberts is one of the tour's top putters and his take on the greens was not one of concern.  He worried about carrying a few of the bunkers as he should be, but he is one of the shortest hitters in the field.  Heck some of us can hit it past him  

I truly hope the course holds its own (and the USGA doesn't have to resort to some goofy course setup).  A good showing would benefit the game.  At the same time, if the greens do end up as a major point of discussion, the saving grace might be that it shows "interesting green contour can have as much or more impact on scoring as stretching courses out to 7500 yards".  

I'm anxious to get back up there this spring to play it again and see all the changes.
Mark

[Jamie Duffner]

Gene - I agrere with what you are saying.  If the first four holes are where you need to score, then you better be prepared for what are not quite pushover holes.

#1 - I don't think 1 is such a pushover.  It also happen sto be the smallest green on the course.  The pros will also complain about the sand.  It's straight from Jones Beach!  Real coarse type sand that is very heavy, not the typical baby powder type stuff.

#2 - didn't they push the tee back to make it 400ish?  While this is not a very difficult hole, you had better be in the fairway, cause form down on the valley, you can barley see the flag and trying to muscle out of the rough up the hill will be no easy task.

#3 - green has some tilt and given the length, shallowness of the green and bunkering, there are hole locations that are going to be extremely difficult to access.

#4 - reachable, yes, able to hold that green, no way, unless Tiger drills it right in front of the glacier bunker and has matbe an 8 iron.  Smart players will lay up to the right and flip a wedge in there.  You had better be in the fairway off the tee, otherwise getting over the glacier bunker is not a simple task out of the rough.

Then the fun  starts at 5, after which  there will not be many birdie holes, except for 13.  Maybe 9, which is an awkward driving holes and 14, which has some real good undulation on that green.

10-11-12 and 15-16-17 - the player who can play these two three hole stretches the best, will be in very good shape.

[Geoffrey_Walsh]

Jamie,

As a regular player at BB, I agree with most of your comments on the first four holes but #2 definitely is a birdie hole.  Most pro's will hit a long iron into the fairway and leave themselves a simple pitch into the green.  Yes its blind, but the the green is very flat.

I don't think enough credit has been given to #3.  With the new back tee at a sharper angle and the extended green back left I think this hole has some teeth.  If your ball runs off the back of the green it creates quite a difficult up an down (the ball used to run into the forest, maybe they will shave that back drop-off).  If you short side it left on a back left pin placement, you can forget about par.

In regards to #4, I'd like to see a Sunday pin placement cut close to the front bunker.  It would make no sense to go for the green in two with that pin location.  Evens it out for the entire field.

[Jamie Duffner]

Geoffrey,

I agree about 2, it is the easiest par 4 on the course.  But, if you find the rough, it's very difficult to get it up that hill, particularly if you push the tee shot right or go too long, then you've also got tree trouble.

#3 - I think will surprise a few people.  Back left is going to be a fun hole location.

[Gene Greco]

There you go, man. Keep thinking about this one because the more you do the more you'll see Tillie's genius at The Black.

This golf course WILL hold its own and possesses holes which WILL embarrass some big names this coming June.

Everyone is still picking on the flatish greens. These greens have always been and still are hard as rocks even after the restoration. Shave 'em down, dry 'em out and the boys are definitely going to have trouble getting the ball close because ......... there just aren't many holes which allow one to run the ball up.

[Mark_Fine]

Gene,
We all know the greens are what they are and if the shot options as you say are very limited, what elevates its stature in your eyes?
Mark  

[GeoffreyChilds]

Mark

Play the Black enough and you will recognize that it is a brilliant shot makers course.  The bunkering is so well placed, deep, large and visually intimidating.  There are many elevation changes that need to be taken into account for shot and club selection.

What elevates its stature?  The above as well as my opinion that tee to green its the best Tillinghast ever did probably on the best property he had to work with.  That's saying a lot in my opinion. THe greens are what they are and we will wait until June to see if thats enough to hold off the scoring from the best players in the world using modern equipment.

[Mark_Fine]

Geoffrey,
You may be right.  I do really like the course but have only played it once and not seen the changes.  As I said, I am anxious to play it again this spring.  
Mark

[Matt_Ward]

Mark Fine:

You need to see the Black again in order to reassess some feelings about the layout.

Yes, the greens are relatively flat in spots, but I can tell you as someone who hits the ball a decent ways -- you must nail some tee shots SO THAT you CAN have a short iron in your hand when approaching many of the targets which are elevated. The bounce-up shot is really not a part of the Black and anyone coming in from odd angles will need to pay attention to what they are doing.

Does anyone believe you are going to hit the 15th successfully with 5-iron or more in your hands and have total control in where the ball lands? I'll be most curious to see what happens here?

There are plenty of other holes where this happens. Take the 5th -- you better keep the shot on the right third of the fairway to increase your ability to angle in your approach. And, does anyone believe the USGA is going to provide fairway widths that accomodate this easily?

It's been mentioned about the early holes. Yes, I do believe they present the easier side of the course but the comments on the 1st hole are right on target. When the pin is deep right you had better think long an dhard on floating an approach that goes in after that location. Miss long and the demands for an up & down par are not easy. The 2nd hole is much longer than the previous tee so that only strong players will use long irons from the tee -- the rest will probably hit 3-wood. However, you still need to judge the distance accurately with the approach. Overall -- still a birdie opportunity no doubt.

The 3rd is unknown because the new tee plus the ability to "hide" the pin left presents interesting demands. I know full well how the wind can blow in on the player but you will not know this until the ball floats above the tree line by the tee. Many times players will not take enough club and the result is coming up short. With the pin left the challenge will be to hit enough club to cover the front bunker that pertrudes but not so much to go into Indiana Jones territory which is just over the green. I agree with GeofrreyC -- the USGA should cut the bank at the back of the green to propel balls into disaster land for the overly aggressive player.

The 4th is one of the best par-5's I've played in the metro NY area. Yes, it can be reached -- but the 2nd shot had better be dropped from an airplane because the green does not take kindly into "hot" second shots. I can attest to that personally. Yes, Tiger can get home, probably with as little as a 6/7-iron but you better have some brakes on it. Let's not forget the rough in the fairway -- miss here and the opportunity to successfully carry the cross bunker and the rough that goes on the other side is not automatic if the lie is iffy. The same situation applies to the 10th -- land in the rough off the tee and the likelihood of carrying the second all the way to the green over the rough that cuts in front of the green is not easy.

Also, just as an FYI the USGA has extended the left side of the 12th fairway further out. Previously, you could cut the left corner and have a fairly short shot into the hole. Heck, I've hit as little as 9-iron from the tips going this way. Now, the players will have to air out the tee shots further right and THEN draw the ball accordingly to get into the proper positioning. Push too far and you had better bring your machete.

I only wish the USGA would have left fairway height grass at the bottom of the 6th fairway. Letting it grow to intermediate rough takes away an option for the bold player and reverts that particular hole to the usual boring "play it this way only" mentality you have seen at previous Opens. The hole should be brought back in the manner it was envisioned by Tillie.

In conclusion, I agree with GeoffreyC -- the Black is certainly Tillie's finest effort tee-to-green with a slight edge over Winged Foot / West because the land (the famed Manetto Hills of Nassau & Suffolk) is just that good. You have to move the tee shot the appropriate manner from one side to the other. We shall see how the world's finest handle this in June but I'm glad there will be an Open where the greens don't have to feature such silly stuff you see with other sites.

[ChrisB (Guest)]

Here's what Rees Jones has to say about it (Newsday article):  

Architect: Black Easier than 2001 Open Course
 
By Damon Hack

February 24, 2002

CARLSBAD, CALIF. -- -- Rees Jones, the golf architect who worked on the Black Course and Torrey Pines' South Course near San Diego, recently speculated that the U.S. Open at Bethpage State Park will play easier than last year's national championship.

"I've said 9-under to 12-under par [will win],” Jones said. "It really depends on if it rains.”

Traditionally, the United States Golf Association has tried to set the winning score at even par, a difficult task because of the advancement in club and ball technology and the growth in the number of talented players. At last year's U.S. Open at Southern Hills in Tulsa, Okla., Retief Goosen won in a playoff after he and Mark Brooks shot 4-under par for the week. Some observers have said the Black Course will be too easy for the world's top players, while others insist that a number closer to even par will be the winning score on the longest U.S. Open course in history.

A lot of it will depend on the rough and the greens, Jones said. "We don't have irrigation in the rough at Beth- page, so [course superintendent] Craig Currier is going to have to water the rough if it's dry and hot, and that's going to be a major factor,” Jones said. "It also will depend on what the speeds of the greens are. The green contours are really kind of baffling, but they're not overly severe.”

[Gene Greco]

"I am simply amazed reading this stuff!"

Bethpage Black easy under US Open conditions?"

"Those who survive #15 on Sunday will be there at the end at 3 to 5 under par. I'll be there when it happens."

                 February 14th, 2002
                
                    
And I was. Great stuff.