"The Pros May Make a Mockery of this Year's Open"

[Kevin_Reilly]

Title of an article in SportsIllustrated.com.  

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/golfonline/features/news/2002/02/11/mcmillan/

Reactions from those who've played Bethpage?

[Patrick Hitt]

Kevin,
The pros will go low, but some will cry as well. I can see 64 or 65 ruined buy a few errant putts on 14 and 15. Rain will hurt but the sandy base of much of the Black will dry out quickly. I never played the course with the rough up - if you don't count clover, but there are enough angles off the tee to punish the wayward drive. I don't look for the winner to be above 276 but I think the firm conditions may create the usual group of contenders between -6 and -10 with a lot of +6 guys back in the pack. This will not be the Bob Hope shootout.

[Mark_Fine]

Kevin,
Remember my post back in January about the over/under bet being -10!  Maybe I wasn't that off base afterall    Give these guys flat greens and they will light it up!
Mark

[ed_getka]

They are the best players in the world. Of course they will score well, but what does that really matter? There will be one winner of the competition (it just won't be the course). I haven't played the course yet, but for those that have what part of the game is most favored by the course or the Open set up?

[Paul Richards]

I'm VERY excited to see how the Black holds up against
these guys.  

The first time I played it, the week after the course
re-opened, I thought that the pros would really struggle.

Now that the average drive has increased 15 yards since
1998 (I think I just read that stat!), I'm not so sure how
tough it will be for those guys ...

[GeoffreyChilds]

Interesting article but I think he/she is overstating the case just a bit.  The article doesn't mention wind as well as some of the really tougher holes (10, 11, 16, especially 15, 8 etc.) and I'd like to see them try to blast it to flip wedge distance on #6 (I hear from Matt Ward that this area down the hill will be rough with maybe a 5 yard wide fairway).

Still, the article could prove correct.  The moral of the story could prove to be that greens complexes are the heart of a course and the way to keep technology in check.  I'd be curious to see if a 6700 yard course like Fenway with greens that could drive you nuts were set up for an Open might challenge more then a tee to green BRUTE like Bethpage Black??

[Paul Richards]

Just because the green speeds are very high doesn't mean
that flat greens will be all that challenging.

[Matt_Ward]

Kevin:

I know Robin McMillan and certainly it is possible that what he describes in the early holes can happen. Even devout fans of the Black (count me as one) admit the early holes are where you most make your move.

But understand there's a big difference between clubhouse logic and game day execution. The chalk said go with the Rams because as 14 point favorites the Patriots would be nothing more than a distraction. What happened is something everyone knows.

No one can speculate what the weather, wind conditons and precise set-up wil be that week in June. I agree with Mark Fine that (-10) is a real dividing line figure that you could probably make good wagers as an over / under bet.

Keep in mind a few items. The player who succeeds at Bethpage will be someone who does hit it long. You can't sit back and assume your long iron play will be sufficient against the likes of Tiger, Phil, Duval and company. Yes, the greens are easy in many spots but there are more than a few greens where over aggressive putting will feature more than its share of three-putts.

Players making the turn had better get the course early. The back nine will not yield scores easily. And, just in case everyone forgot -- make special note of the 15th hole. I see this hole having a major role in shaping who wins the event. I can't think of a more exacting approach even when you're dead center in the fairway. Pull or push a drive in the rough and you had better lay-up with your second because steering a long shot into a target high above you will not be easy. Double and triple bogeys are prime possibilties here.

The question is not how low the winning figure is, but the type of battle that comes from the Black. I will always remember the '77 BO between Watson and Nicklaus. If the Black can produce such epic golf it's place as a future major championship site is assured. On the flip side if you get a dull Open in which literally nothing of consequence happens then that's another story in itself.

We shall soooooon see ...

[Don_Mahaffey]

I remember hearing that Pinehurst was going to play easier than the average Open site. I don't think they were saying that by Sunday. I would never underestimate the USGA in setting up a difficult course. Hard greens rolling 12+ will test even the best players. At that speed they will not seem so flat. The key will be how hard the USGA gets the greens; if the weather cooperates, expect one tick short of concrete.

[Evan Fleisher]

Matt,

I agree with your assessment that 15 will play a critical role in shaping the events at the Open...but what about 17?  At the length these guys are expected to play that hole (210+ yards, I believe), a fairly shallow green front to back, and the nasty hillside at the back edge, what do you expect to happen here?

[Mike_Cirba]

Geoffrey,

I have no doubt in my mind that if you set up Fenway under USGA Open specs, it would provide a tougher test than Bethpage Black for the touring pros.

Can you even imagine THOSE greens stimping at 12 or so??  

As an aside to everyone else, if you ever have any doubt as to the genius of Tillinghast, have a look at Fenway and you'll see 18 of the most unique, original, maddening green complexes ever built, ranging from about 2,500 square feet to 10,000.  The man was a maniac!  

[George Bahto]

I think they will putt the eyes out of those greens - they will threaten the hole from any place on those greens.

There are only two greens with any decent undulations on them, if I remember correctly.

Do you think those moderate undulations will bother them - I doubt it.

The rough and wind will be the determining factor - length and the greens certainly will not.

[Neil Crafter]

Don't forget the US Open choke factor - that's got to be worth a shot or two in the third and final rounds. This is one US Open I'm really looking forward to seeing on the tellie.
cheers
Neil

[Paul Richards]

Neil:

Agreed.  

No matter what, this should be a very interesting US Open ...

[Paul Perrella]

  Geoffrey & Mike C.

  I don't want to move too far from the Bethpage thread but my opinion is that the greens at Fenway may be the best I've ever seen anywhere. Just wondering what your thoughts are.

  Bethpage's layout with Fenway greens = a + number to win the open. Just musing.

[GeoffreyChilds]

Paul

Bethpage Black is in my opinion the best tee to green course that Tillinghast built.  I think the Fenway greens are his best, clearly better then Winged Foot West (again my opinion).  Put them together under tournament conditions and any number over par could win depending on the wind and the firmness of the ground through the green. That would be one hell of a course! Imagine a green like the one on the 450 yard 5th at Fenway (see Rans course profile) tacked on to the end of the 5th at Bethpage  

[Mike_Cirba]

Paul,

I'd have to agree.  A combination of Bethpage's scale, routing, tee to green challenge, (and hopefully some of the old, pre-restoration BB scruffiness thrown in the mix), coupled with Fenway's greens would probably put the course in the top 5 in the country...certainly the top 10.

I was astounded by what I saw at Fenway, and can't believe the course has been in the shadows of obscurity for so long.  I've been telling Tom Paul he needs to get up there and see them, as he has always seemed to enjoy the idea of Tillie out there designing, flask in hand.  I can guarantee that Fenway's green sites were done by Tillie late, late into each day!

[Matt_Ward]

Evan:

Agreed. The 17th will be a significant hole for the Open as you and many others well know. The narrow green is a difficult target and I actually believe the hole plays even more demanding when the pin is placed far right because the front and back bunkers really pinch in the landing zone.

The degree of difficulty of the 17th depends upon how firm the green is because few players possess the wherewithal to stop a long iron that fast given the limited amount of landing area.

For all the other esteemed gentleman who have commented a few things to offer.

I get a chuckle when people say that no matter the length it will have little effect on the pros. Really? Miss wide left and right on the fairways and unless you are King Kong you will not reach many of the long par-4 targets in the regulation stroke. Just take the 4th as an example -- miss the fairway and if you draw a typical Open lie in the rough the wherewithal to hit over the cross bunker and the rough that extends on the other side is not an automatic thing. There are numerous other examples I can apply.

As far as comparisons with Fenway are concerned it would be great if you could combine the two aspects of the courses and play them as one. But, for anyone to suggest (hello Mike Cirba ), that Fenway is beyond Bethpage Black (when Open prepared) is just plain silly. Fenway is a very short course --top players could tee off with irons on nearly all of the holes minus a few and still have short irons left. At the Black the top players WILL need driver and on some holes a little bit more won't hurt. The approach shots will also require a few mid and long irons since all players don't go by the last name of Woods and Daly to elevated targets. I'll say this again -- you will plenty of pros scream about how unfair the approach is to the 15th! What a great, great hole.

Yes, the greens at Fenway are truly superb and deserve high praise. But, do not discount the necessary skill in negotiating the tee-to-green aspect that is the Black. Also, we shall see how well the strategy is in getting Bethpage greens to near 13 on the stimp and see how the pros handle it -- contrary to my good friend George Bahto, there are several holes of note where the pitch will effect a great many putts and I'm not just talking the 15th hole. Bethpage's greens are not less in overall quality than what the players experienced when competing at Baltusrol Lower.

And let's not forget, as some posters have highlighted, the CHOKE factor is in play during ANY Open and the closing stretch of holes at the Black (I'll concede the 18th) is ripe for those players who start recycling their lunches.

I'll say this again it's not the score it's what is produced at the event that's more telling. Give me an old-fashioned shoot-out where the players are clicking (ala '77 BO / Watson & Nicklaus) and the Black will earn its place. Mark Fine deserves high marks for his over / under -10 figure. I think they will be right at the mark at the end of 72 holes.

We shall see ...

[GeoffreyChilds]

Matt

Each year there is a big amateur stroke play event at Quaker Ridge and at Fenway.  The scores at Fenway are routinely 2-3 shots higher at Fenway on average. Fenway has several "birdie holes" but it also has a 245 yard uphill par 3 a 200 yard uphill par 3 to a SEVERELY sloped green flanked by severe bunkers, I think 3 par 4's over 450 and others over 430.  For a 6700 yard course, it has more really hard par's then any other course of that length that I can think of off the top of my head. Put those greens on top of that and it is no pushover for anyone even with wedge approaches.

I would disagree with your statement "Bethpage's greens are not less in overall quality than what the players experienced when competing at Baltusrol Lower".  There are some superb greens at Bethpage (8, 11,12,15!!,17) but Baltusrol Lower doesn't have anything remotely as uninteresting as Bethpage's 2,3,4,5,6,7,9 and 10 greens.

That said, I think this years event will be a really fine open that will identify a fine ball striker.

[Matt_Ward]

GeoffreyC:

Quick question -- from the tips which course is more demanding -- Fenway or Bethpage Black? Tell me from two perspectives please -- the amateur and the world class pro? I don't mean any disrespect to Fenway because I completely agree about a number of holes and the marvelous putting surfaces but when you have wedge approaches it's still a wedge! I agree that Fenway is vastly underrated in the grouping of superior Westchester courses and a good argument can be made that's it even as high as the 3rd best course in that area.

But when compared to the Black? In my mind -- there's no comparison. You can't just dismiss the total length of the Black and the numerous elevated targets. When you have to HIT driver as you do at many of the holes at Bethpage that changes the dimensions a good deal from having the OPTION in going with a long iron or 3-woods from many of the tees as good players can at Fenway.

Also, in my mind, the greens at Baltusrol Lower are no better than what you'll find in June at Bethpage Black. Geoffrey, you forgot a couple of "remotely uninteresting greens," to wit, flat ones at Baltusrol Lower (1,2,3,8,9,10,12,16 and I'll also include 17 & 18). Plenty of subtle breaks no doubt, but Bethpage has more demanding targets to get close to with the approach.

It kills me with all these bombardments on the Black -- you'd think the pros are coming to play an extension of the Hope Classic at Bermuda Dunes. Defenders of the Black come forward and defend thy honor ...

[Geoffrey_Walsh]

The real problem here is that no one has ever seen or played The Black under the set-up that the USGA will put into place.  I don't even think the back tees on 10 and 12 were used for the Met Open and 7 was not converted to a par 4 (are they still going to do that?).  That's part of the reason why it makes for such a great conversation topic... it is all speculation.

I love how people say that the course will play easy if the pros hit it 320 down the middle and hit laser-like short irons.  I don't know about you guys, but I can't think of a course that wouldn't yield low scores given that kind of player performance.  However, even the best players in the world struggle under the pressure of a Major.  You will see some low rounds, but I doubt you will see four in a row by the same individual.  My guess is 6 under walks away with the trophy.  Keep in mind that while there are a few holes that may yield  an easy birdie, every hole can yield a double or a triple bogey.  The Open is rarely won by the player that makes the most birdies (Mickelson comes to mind), but rather the player that makes the fewest mistakes and avoids the big number.

In terms of holes that may decide the championship, I would agree on 15 and certainly 17.  I would also throw the par 4 12th into a list of important holes.  Ever play the Open tees on that monster?  Push your tee shot there and the longer hitters might go through the fairway and still be 200+ yards from the green.  It also an awkward tee shot for right-handers that rely on a fade.

Grow the rough up, pinch the fairways, roll the greens at 13 on the Stimp and lets sit back and enjoy the People's Open.

[Matt_Ward]

Geoffrey Walsh:

Thanks for you lucid comments. Just keep in mind critics of the Black will probably fail to give the course it's due even if the scores are high because they will routinely chime in and say "it was the rough," or "it was the wind."

I've played the course for years and have played the Black from the tips (two feet from the hedges) and banging out 320 yard rope like tee shots is not as "automatic" as some might indicate. The 12th is one of those holes where control of the shot is uppermost in any player's mind.

[Mark_Fine]

My initial assesment was primarily based on the putting surfaces.  Heck roll them at 16 and the pros will still eat them up.  Contour and 10 is much harder than flat and 16  
Mark

Note:  I say 16 only because I was at Oakmont one time and a long time member there said they can get them that fast if they wanted to!  What a scary thought huh!

[peter_mcknight]

If I remeber reading and hearing correctly, the State of New York and the USGA have agreed to close the course a full 30 days before commencement of the Open.  That should help in preparing the course for the tournament, especially in getting it to play really fast and firm prior to 10 June 2002.

I believe the USGA will probably err on the tougher side for the set up if, in the final analysis, they believe -10 will be the winning score with another 10-20 players also under par.  Frankly, I don't think they are really that concerned with what the winner is; rather, if 10-20 finished in red figures and the leader was -10 or so, then that course probably has seen its last open for awhile.  Again, with the lead time for set up, they can determine what the scoring will be.

The greens at 12+ on the stimpmeter will pose problems, especially when firm.  There are very subtle breaks in the greens on the front and increasing green speed will bring those out.  My guess is at that speed, most of the Bethpage hotel regulars will see breaks they have never seen before.  For example, hole 4, if firm, may pose problems most don't know about--the 2d shot not holding the green and bounding long, failing to make the requisite birdie, then going to hole 5...

The rough at Bethpage is also fantastic.  If one isn't driving the ball well, forget it.  Most of us have seen the course with 40 yard fairways--that should be reduced to 25-32.  Bring in the rough line from the right on holes 1 and 7 (e.g.) will alter how they are played--certainly on 1, one will have to think twice before blasting it over the tree and on 7, it will make that 480 yards really play 480.

The real scoring isn't the front nine; rather it is only holes 1-4.  At hole 5, one straps it in for the rest of the course.  The only questionable hole after no. 5 is no.9 and at least that will play around 420-430.

I will always believe Bethpage, even with its greens, is tougher than Congressional open.  At Congressional, 276 won with only 3 players under par for the week.  I would more than take that for starters.  The greatest thing about Bethpage is that it will force every player to hit driver and we should all applaud the USGA for set-ups that want players to hit drivers.

Bethpage's back nine is far superior to Baltusrol's Lower course.  Baltusrol ends after hole 7.

There may be a 64 at Bethpage, but unless there is significant rain, I'm not counting on it.  Even at Southern Hills, there was only 1 (T Kite), and he wasn't in contention in the 4th round so it really doesn't count and Bethpage is far tougher than SHCC.

Lastly, maybe the USGA has decided to play it at 7214 and not ALL the way back for a reason--it could have been 7350.

[Pete L]

My impression, the last time playing Bethpage, was not that the greens are flat, but rather they are slightly bowled shaped. This may finally put a premium on bunker play, because the player who short sides himself in a greenside bunker (and who won't on this course) will have to stop the ball quickly on a downslope. Also don't forget that the subtle breaks are most often the hardest to trust!