The Distance Genie .........

[Bryan Izatt]

........... appears to be no more out of the bottle in 2008 than it has been since the dawn of the Pro v1 (with apologies to Callaway) era, at least as evidenced by PGA Tour statistics (see below).  The average drive is down slightly.  The longest driver average is down slightly.  And, Corey Pavin is no further behind Bubba Watson in 2008 than he was John Daly in 1999.

Can we venture outdoors again, because the sky isn't continuing to fall (or has already fallen  )?  Can course owners start relaxing about lengthening their courses?  Is the ball a dead (no pun intended) issue with the USGA?

[Jason Topp]

I would guess that distance gains will be at most 1-2 yards per year until the next technology jump.  Historically that is how it has worked.

[Bryan Izatt]

Jason,

Sure, I'd go with the yard a year, on average, gains due to non-equipment factors. The purification of the golfer-athlete genome.   What do you think is the probability of a technology-induced distance jump in the next 10 year; say by 2018?  Do you suppose the USGA will be ahead of the curve, if it happens, and regulates it out?  Are we at the peak of the distance golden age now?

[Adam Clayman]

I'd be hesitant to place too much credence in stats provided by the Tour. Since the lines in the sand have drawn tweaking the holes where the stats are taken can easily alter the perception. The reported decrease is fishy considering what one witnesses even from non tour types. 

[Clyde Johnston]

I agree with Adam about the stats. But it is interesting that the longest drive this year was 439 yards. Last year, it was 437.

[JohnV]

I agree with Adam about the stats. But it is interesting that the longest drive this year was 439 yards. Last year, it was 437.

Longest drive is the most meaningless stat the PGA Tour measures as it so dependent on environmental factors including elevation, fairway firmness (or even rough firmness) etc.

But, if you want to use it, note that only 6 drives over 400 yards have been recorded this year vs 26 last year.

[TX Golf]

That stat is probably completely dependent on the amount of wind that existed during the Mercedes. If they get 17 and 18 down wind they hit it over 400 quite frequently. As you said though... a completely useless statistic.

[Bryan Izatt]

I'd be hesitant to place too much credence in stats provided by the Tour. Since the lines in the sand have drawn tweaking the holes where the stats are taken can easily alter the perception. The reported decrease is fishy considering what one witnesses even from non tour types. 

I'm not sure I get your point.  Are you suggesting that the Tour selects the measured holes to ensure that the drive lengths are minimized?  Or that they're under-reporting the lengths?

The lengths they report are averages over many courses, in different weather conditions and course conditions.  There are no doubt many drives both shorter and longer than a player's average.  But, I think these stats are the most reliable that I've seen to discuss the length issue at the elite level of play.

What we all witness is coloured by our own perceptions. I've not played with anyone this year who hits the ball 300 yards regularly in neutral conditions.  We can all do it under the right conditions - firm and fast bentgrass fairways on a warm day with a following breeze and a fairway that angles downhill.  The guys I play with who think they hit it 300 yards, don't.  People's perception of their length is usually well off the reality.  Sure there are guys who can hit it that far and do - but they are a very small minority.

Our course has been used for Nationwide qualifiers and some of those players were long, but not egregiously long - unless you consider 300 yards egregious..

[Jason Topp]

Jason,

Sure, I'd go with the yard a year, on average, gains due to non-equipment factors. The purification of the golfer-athlete genome.   What do you think is the probability of a technology-induced distance jump in the next 10 year; say by 2018?  Do you suppose the USGA will be ahead of the curve, if it happens, and regulates it out?  Are we at the peak of the distance golden age now?

I have no idea what will cause the next jump or when it will happen.  If I were to guess, it is probably a long ways off.  Nonetheless, history suggests it will happen at some point and that the USGA will not be ahead of the curve.  The regulator is rarely, if ever, ahead of the market.

My guess is that most of the damage caused by the last distance jump has already been done (although watching Holmes hit 70 yard approaches into 440 yard uphill holes leaves one to wonder).
  

[Adam Clayman]

Bryan, I'm not accusing the tour of under reporting. (but then I wouldn't put it past them either)
 What I was suggesting could easily be manipulated by the holes chosen to do the measuring. I'm not familiar with how that's determined. Are you?

JVB, The loss of the Castle Pines venue is also a function of the # of drives over 400 yards. Don't you think?

[Garland Bayley]

I guess we have to get TEP to call the USGA and get us an update on the ball program.

I of course have the solution to the problem. All they have to do is ask. 

I will admit that my solution will probably lead to Callaway sueing the USGA over loss of patent revenue.

[JohnV]

Bryan, I'm not accusing the tour of under reporting. (but then I wouldn't put it past them either)
 What I was suggesting could easily be manipulated by the holes chosen to do the measuring. I'm not familiar with how that's determined. Are you?

JVB, The loss of the Castle Pines venue is also a function of the # of drives over 400 yards. Don't you think?

Adam, was Castle Pines used in 2007?

It used to be that most of the long drives were at Kapalua on holes like #18.

As for under-reporting distance, I don't think they they are.  I remember going to a Champions Tour event a few years ago where a spectator had a laser.  We were standing by the 280 mark painted on the side of the fairway.  A shot back to the signage behind the tee showed that it was only 260 from where we were.  The 280 mark was probably at about 250 off the tee.  Perhaps they were adjusting this, perhaps not.

[Kevin_Reilly]

In the current Golfweek, JB Holmes says that on many of the measuring holes this year he didn't use a driver.  That suggests that the holes chosen for measurement, at least this year, are not always "driver" holes.

[Bryan Izatt]

All I know about the way the Tour measures is from their web site:

"The average number of yards per measured drive. These drives are measured on two holes per round. Care is taken to select two holes which face in opposite directions to counteract the effect of wind. Drives are measured to the point at which they come to rest regardless of whether they are in the fairway or not."

It mentions wind as a consideration but not width or uphill or downhill, so who knows.  I'd assume they'd pick relatively flat holes with some width so that most are using drivers.  I can't think of any marketing reason why they'd want to under-report distance.  I can think of one why they'd want to over-report.

Last tour event I attended they were using what looked like GPS and transit based equipment to measure distance.  Don't know where any markings on the fairway would fit into that.

Homes and course management, what a concept.  I'd imagine that there must be many holes where for strategic architectural reasons he might have to lay up, perhaps even including the measured holes.

[Phil Benedict]

I know he's a bit of an outlier but JB Holmes' driver distances this weekend were laughable.  370-yards was routine.

Johnny Miller described a 440-yard hole as "a short par 4."

The damage has already been done.