Good discussion on this hole...I think the evolution of this hole is really interesting and I am looking forward to seeing the native grasses growing in and seeing what the club ultimately determines the cut lines to be.
I went to Google Earth today to try and measure the distance from the new back tee to the top of the hill - Jud estimated 275 yards to carry the bunkers in his post and it felt like a lot more to me. The other thing to note about this carry distance is that the fairway leading to the downslope rises virtually all the way to very top of the hill before the slope actually begins - while the course generally plays firm and fast, I would estimate that the majority of balls that have carried down the slope have hit fairly close to the crest of the hill to catch the slope.
Interestingly enough, the image on Google Earth was just shot on April 4th, 2012 - therefore you can see the new cut lines very clearly...
The yellow line is placed approximately in the middle of the new back tee and ends at what I estimated to be the crest of the hill - this is just a rough guess based on the position of the left bunkers and the change in coloration of the grass. According to Google Earth, the distance is 302 yards.
I played the 17th three times one weekend last month and failed to come close to carrying down the hill all three times - there was a little breeze into the face and air temperatures were only in the 60s - but I would put my chances under ideal conditions at less than 5% from back there. Previously, I used to hit driver with reckless abandon from the old back tee (with the left fairway) ten times out of ten and probably carry down the slope 8 or 9 times out of ten and be in the fairway - granted the old fairway at its widest was 93 yards according to Google Earth.
Certainly much more difficult and for most players will require a delicate third shot with some sort of wedge to a fairly challenging green - especially with a front position...
On June 25th, I will (hopefully) get six tee shots on this hole as part of the Hundred Hole Hike - I will let you know how I do!