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Kyle Harris

A 5 year moratorium
« on: June 22, 2008, 09:15:46 PM »
I'm curious as to what everyone thinks the affect of no development or new golf course construction for 5 years?

Apart from the obvious career changes to those who practice architecture.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2008, 09:55:43 PM by Kyle Harris »

Joe Bausch

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2008, 09:22:21 PM »
Kyle, if the price of oil keeps going up, very few new courses will be developed here in the USA, IMO.
@jwbausch (for new photo albums)
The site for the Cobb's Creek project:  https://cobbscreek.org/
Nearly all Delaware Valley golf courses in photo albums: Bausch Collection

Dan Herrmann

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2008, 09:22:27 PM »
Kyle,  

???

Why do you suggest no new golf course development will occur until 2013?
« Last Edit: June 22, 2008, 09:25:05 PM by Dan Herrmann »

Kyle Harris

Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2008, 09:25:25 PM »
Reading the ROI thread got me thinking as to why people even build new in the first place... What happened if it stopped for a period of time?

Would the present facilities become better managed?
Would green fees rise or fall?
Would present facilities seek to renovate or restore at a more frequent rate?

Kyle Harris

Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2008, 09:27:13 PM »
Kyle, 

???

Why do you suggest no new golf course development will occur until 2013?

I'm not suggesting it. Just asking "what if?"

cary lichtenstein

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2008, 02:55:25 AM »
With the housing market in such deep do do, I would guess that end of the market is history for 5 years.

Live Jupiter, Fl, was  4 handicap, played top 100 US, top 75 World. Great memories, no longer play, 4 back surgeries. I don't miss a lot of things about golf, life is simpler with out it. I miss my 60 degree wedge shots, don't miss nasty weather, icing, back spasms. Last course I played was Augusta

Matthew Hunt

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2008, 08:23:29 AM »
Oh what a wonderful time to think of becoming a GCA. But as Tom Doak said there room if your good enough. How % does everyone on her think the market will shrink?

Dan Herrmann

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2008, 08:32:19 AM »
Matthew - 5% - 10% shrinkage total thru 2013.

I think a good number of old clubs that are "stuck in the past" will be forced to close.  New construction tied to housing will really slow down, and some high-end daily fee cources will fail to provide adequate profits and close.

But I also see family-oriented clubs growing and desination golf (Bandon) will always have a place.

You could also see increase in renovation efforts at financially sound clubs.

Of course, the great clubs will always do just fine, thank you.

Chris Garrett

Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #8 on: June 23, 2008, 03:16:01 PM »
Kyle,

Nice to see a fellow Penn Stater on the board.  We Are!!


As for your hypothetical question, you would stunt the future of the game and future of GCA.  Neither scenario is much desired.

rjsimper

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #9 on: June 23, 2008, 03:21:26 PM »
Oh what a wonderful time to think of becoming a GCA. But as Tom Doak said there room if your good enough.

What about "if you're cheap enough and do passable work?"



Kyle Harris

Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #10 on: June 23, 2008, 09:07:33 PM »
Kyle,

Nice to see a fellow Penn Stater on the board.  We Are!!


As for your hypothetical question, you would stunt the future of the game and future of GCA.  Neither scenario is much desired.

Chris,

How would this stunt the future of the game or GCA? Does the growth of the game require new places to play being built?

Bart Bradley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #11 on: June 23, 2008, 09:24:26 PM »
Kyle:

I agree with you.  The growth of the game has far more to do with getting juniors involved and passionate about golf than with the development of new courses.  Well, that's my opinion anyway.

Bart

Kyle Harris

Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2008, 09:29:22 PM »
Kyle:

I agree with you.  The growth of the game has far more to do with getting juniors involved and passionate about golf than with the development of new courses.  Well, that's my opinion anyway.

Bart

Bart,

I'm not quite sure where I sit with this issue yet. I've been thinking lately as to why the need for new golf courses exists and why anyone would want to start that sort of enterprise today.

If golf course construction were to stop in the United States, I don't believe the game would die.

When was the last time a new bowling alley was built?

Bart Bradley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2008, 09:31:39 PM »
Kyle:

I agree with you.  The growth of the game has far more to do with getting juniors involved and passionate about golf than with the development of new courses.  Well, that's my opinion anyway.

Bart

Bart,

I'm not quite sure where I sit with this issue yet. I've been thinking lately as to why the need for new golf courses exists and why anyone would want to start that sort of enterprise today.

If golf course construction were to stop in the United States, I don't believe the game would die.

When was the last time a new bowling alley was built?

Kyle, I don't know.  But is the bowling business booming? 

Bart

Kyle Harris

Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2008, 09:38:02 PM »
Kyle:

I agree with you.  The growth of the game has far more to do with getting juniors involved and passionate about golf than with the development of new courses.  Well, that's my opinion anyway.

Bart

Bart,

I'm not quite sure where I sit with this issue yet. I've been thinking lately as to why the need for new golf courses exists and why anyone would want to start that sort of enterprise today.

If golf course construction were to stop in the United States, I don't believe the game would die.

When was the last time a new bowling alley was built?

Kyle, I don't know.  But is the bowling business booming? 

Bart

I believe it's the most popular participation sport in the United States.

Mike McGuire

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #15 on: June 23, 2008, 09:40:39 PM »
Does anyone have a guess on private club membership levels in 5 years? 10 years?

Bart Bradley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #16 on: June 23, 2008, 09:41:41 PM »
But then again Kyle...How excited do bowlers get about seeing a new alley? How inspiring is a new alley?  Does a  new alley bring something new and revolutionary to the game?  Does the hair stand up on the back of a bowler's neck when they step up to roll the ball on a particularly intriguing lane?

Probably no...

Bart

Kyle Harris

Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #17 on: June 23, 2008, 09:43:39 PM »
But then again Kyle...How excited do bowlers get about seeing a new alley? How inspiring is a new alley?  Does a  new alley bring something new and revolutionary to the game?  Does the hair stand up on the back of a bowler's neck when they step up to roll the ball on a particularly intriguing lane?

Probably no...

Bart

Good points, and I think that's a fundamental appeal to golf. But would a 5 year lapse in construction eliminate that?

There are plenty of 100 year old golf courses I haven't seen, and quite a few would invoke that response.

Bart Bradley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #18 on: June 23, 2008, 09:49:58 PM »
But then again Kyle...How excited do bowlers get about seeing a new alley? How inspiring is a new alley?  Does a  new alley bring something new and revolutionary to the game?  Does the hair stand up on the back of a bowler's neck when they step up to roll the ball on a particularly intriguing lane?

Probably no...

Bart

Good points, and I think that's a fundamental appeal to golf. But would a 5 year lapse in construction eliminate that?

There are plenty of 100 year old golf courses I haven't seen, and quite a few would invoke that response.

Kyle,

I just can't come up with a long list of positives for the moratorium.  How would golf benefit.  It would lose the greatest creative minds in GCA...they would all go on to something else.  Building new courses puts market pressures on the worst courses in the same competitive class -- same market demographics and relative location-- and probably forces the closing of the worst/worst run courses competing for those golfing dollars.  Is this a problem?

Bart

Kyle Harris

Re: A 5 year moratarium
« Reply #19 on: June 23, 2008, 09:53:38 PM »
But then again Kyle...How excited do bowlers get about seeing a new alley? How inspiring is a new alley?  Does a  new alley bring something new and revolutionary to the game?  Does the hair stand up on the back of a bowler's neck when they step up to roll the ball on a particularly intriguing lane?

Probably no...

Bart

Good points, and I think that's a fundamental appeal to golf. But would a 5 year lapse in construction eliminate that?

There are plenty of 100 year old golf courses I haven't seen, and quite a few would invoke that response.

Kyle,

I just can't come up with a long list of positives for the moratorium.  How would golf benefit.  It would lose the greatest creative minds in GCA...they would all go on to something else.  Building new courses puts market pressures on the worst courses in the same competitive class -- same market demographics and relative location-- and probably forces the closing of the worst/worst run courses competing for those golfing dollars.  Is this a problem?

Bart

I'm not sure if it's a problem. But I also can't think of a golf course that closed because a new course opened nearby. I'd argue that golf course close because of internal factors, like spending management, not because there is a better option down the road.

Does anyone have any examples? How about a golf course pricing itself out of the market?

Chris Garrett

Re: A 5 year moratorium
« Reply #20 on: June 24, 2008, 09:52:18 AM »
Kyle,

re Your bowling example.  A lane in bowling is the same no matter where you are.  Thus, it's a moot point.

As to my original comment about stunting both GCA and the game of golf:

GCA - As was stated, you would lose the best minds in the business to other pursuits.  Doak, C&C, Hanse and everyone else would be lost.  That is a shame because they are the ones behind this "2nd Golden Age."  Once the 5 year run is up, there will be a significant delay in bringing the GCA ranks back up to par.  Think of it like the 1994 strike in baseball.  Not only did you lose the end of the '94 season, but it took the game many years to recover.  Five years in your question would turn into 10-15 years or more until we are back up to speed.

Game of golf - Golf courses will close during the 5 year period.  Thus, the number of courses in the country will decrease.  I can guarantee you that if the number of courses decreases, the number of rounds played and the number of golfers will decrease as well.  There shouldn't be much argument in that, should there?  Whenever a course closes, you are losing golfers and potential golfers.  I won't and can't argue about the current economics behind building and owning a golf course.  However, those who are building courses are not doing so blindly and without regard to supply and demand.  Many of the courses being built today are done so to meet the demand from ever-growing suburban America. 

Also, keep in mind the effects of competition between courses.  Operational standards are raised, course conditions are more closely monitored, and prices are driven down.  There are all win-wins for golfers. 

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +2/-1
Re: A 5 year moratorium
« Reply #21 on: June 24, 2008, 11:10:18 AM »
Kyle:

A moratorium would be a terrible idea.  Some of the best new work is done in "down" periods when there isn't so much going on, and the architect has more time to devote to a single project.

Things have slowed down significantly now, and I'm sure it will get worse before it gets better ... but a complete stop would be a waste of talent.

Wade Whitehead

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