Breaking 100 at Torrey???

[John Kavanaugh]

The answer is no, no, and again no at any U. S. Open course.   For example, any time I looked back for the tournament tees at Shinnecock they were inevitably 50 yards back on all but the one-shot holes.  The native grass was low as the season was just beginning and the greens were a modest pace.   The weather was awful and as a 12  handicap I didn't make a par. 

If there's one true advertising slogan in this country it's "These guys are good."

Mike

Ooooohhh, Shinnecock...nice.

[Matt Varney]

I agree totally with Rick and I would add only one thing to this thread.  Anyone on GCA that has never played in a foursome with 3 pros and I am a 10 handicap golfer will be amazed at the difference in length.

When these pros regardless of their size hit the ball it makes a different sound.  They can hit it a country mile because they have great swing mechanics to maximize distance.  When I play with these guys and bomb a tee ball with my R5 270-280 yards and then watch as all 3 of these pros blow it by me in the fiarway by 20-40 yards you see the reason for the long holes in a US Open.  I am hitting an 8 iron into a 440 yard hole and they are flipping wedges into the greens.  You see the need now for 470 to 510 yard par 4's in a US Open?

These guys are really good!!!  The fine line between the Nationwide Tour and the PGA Tour is all in chipping and putting and having the mental control to handle the pressure and compete at such a high level every week.

[Mike Benham]

I give in. Romo is going to shoot a thousand.

I'll take the under ...

[Rick Sides]

Matt you are exactly correct.  The average guy cannot believe how far a skilled, pro can hit the ball.  Three weeks ago, I remember Adam Scott hitting a driver- 7 iron onto the green of a 550 yard par 5.  Most average players would struggle to hit the green in 3 shots on a 550 yard par 5.  I am a relatively big guy about 6'1 200 pounds and I once played with a very good high school player who was about 5'7 tall and watched this kid drill bullets past my 260 yard drives.

[Mike Benham]

Tony Romo could be a great amateur golfer, he can play a really great round of golf in a top amateur tournament, probably more then once.  However, I still give a small chance, about the size of the sweet spot on a 1970’s era 1-iron, of him breaking 80.

First, as much as NBC and the USGA will say that this foursome will be playing under US Open conditions, we all know they won’t be.  They will be playing 2 weeks before the Open so the fairways and most definitely the greens will not be close to the final firmness and speed for the tournament weekend.  I’ll venture to say the greens will be no faster then an 11, and even that is questionable.  Where will the holes be located? 

Second, we all know that the USGA protects par for the Open and making birdies is extremely difficult.  With the narrow fairways, length of the course and tall rough, I see Romo fighting for pars on most holes and birdies will be viewed flying along the edge of the cliffs.

The Numbers: 
•   To break 80, he must have no more then 7 bogeys assuming he makes no birdies. 
•   He needs to keep the ball in the fairway, needing to hit at least 8 fairways (57% - #125 on the PGA Tour is 60%) to have 12 clean approach shots to the greens (including par 3s).
•   Of those 12 clean approach shots, he needs to hit the green at least 7 times (58% - #125 on the PGA Tour is 60%) and 2 putt for pars.
•   Of the 5 missed approach shots, he needs to scramble for par on 66% (3 - #125 on the PGA Tour is 56%) of them.
•   Of the 6 missed fairways, he will need to scramble for pars 17% of the time (1).  Scrambling from a missed US Open fairway is far more difficult then a missed GIR assuming a pitch out to the fairway.

Thrown in the possibility of a double-bogey, then each of those numbers above have to improve.  A birdie will give some leeway.


As with any golfer playing in the US Open, the ability to make pars is going to come down to keep the ball in the fairway and hitting the center of the greens. 

[Reef Wilson]

Nobody has mentioned that San Diego, especially along the coast, is almost always cold and damp in June. If they get a bad day, it could make the course (especially the rough) play even longer. Ever since I heard the Open was going there I thought about the very real chance that viewers on TV might watch all 4 rounds and never see the sun and that is going to be a bit of a shock for those who don't know about "June gloom." Hopefully it won't be as bad as it can be!

I would say if the 10 gets in a bunch of practice rounds (and I am assuming he will) and there is no wind, he's got a chance at breaking 100. If he doesn't have a chance to come up with a good plan for managing the course or if the wind kicks up, forget it.

[Mike Hendren]

Ooooohhh, Shinnecock...nice.

Hey hoser, Hillbilly on Hillbilly sarcasm does not advance our cause.
Think that's something?  I recently played a course whose name is ____________ National Golf Club.  How do you you like me now?

Your pal.  Honestly. No, I really mean it.

Mike

[Dean Stokes]

What do you shoot???

[Tim Bert]

Ooooohhh, Shinnecock...nice.

Hey hoser, Hillbilly on Hillbilly sarcasm does not advance our cause.
Think that's something?  I recently played a course whose name is ____________ National Golf Club.  How do you you like me now?

Your pal.  Honestly. No, I really mean it.

Mike

How was that Norman design, anyway?   

[Tom Huckaby]

George:

At one point in my life I could perhaps call myself a somewhat competitive player.  That time is LONG ago, if it ever really existed at all.  I am right now a 3.8 index who plays once a month if he's lucky and never practices.

Huck,

This is the saddest thing I've ever heard.  You spend more time on this web site than you do playing!

It's more like this:  work takes up 6am-4pm more or less M-Fri.  Kids sports plus other parental duties take up 4pm-10pm M-Fri.  Kids sports take up damn near all daylight each Sat-Sun.  You tell me where I fit in the golf.   

As for Romo, I still take the under on 85.  If a guy can play football before 100,000 and gazillions on TV, one funsy non-competitive golf round before a few spectators and taped/edited TV ain't gonna faze him.  Oh, he'll have his troubles as of course the golf course will be very very difficult.  But if a guy can shoot 69s in competition as he has, he can break 80 anywhere.  I'm not saying he WILL as a lot can go wrong in any one golf round... but he surely can. 

TH

[George Pazin]

Huck, a couple things:

1) Many other pro athletes have found that their immunity to pressure in their own sport doesn't translate to the golf course;

and

2) Is there any reason to believe Romo is a better golfer than absolutely any golfer who qualifies for the US Open? There's probably going to be one or two of those guys who shoots in the mid 80s, I see no reason to believe Romo is better than any of them.

Can he do it? Sure. Pete hits on the most likely reason - even though this is billed as Open setup, we all know that a week or two prior can make a big difference. The course won't be quite as firm or fast or nasty. Close, but not quite. A more accurate test, which wouldn't fit into NBC's plans, would be to have them tee it up on the day after.

Will he do it? My money says no - and I'm willing to back it up with that cool hard dollar.

[Glenn Spencer]

George:

At one point in my life I could perhaps call myself a somewhat competitive player.  That time is LONG ago, if it ever really existed at all.  I am right now a 3.8 index who plays once a month if he's lucky and never practices.

Huck,

This is the saddest thing I've ever heard.  You spend more time on this web site than you do playing!

It's more like this:  work takes up 6am-4pm more or less M-Fri.  Kids sports plus other parental duties take up 4pm-10pm M-Fri.  Kids sports take up damn near all daylight each Sat-Sun.  You tell me where I fit in the golf.   

As for Romo, I still take the under on 85.  If a guy can play football before 100,000 and gazillions on TV, one funsy non-competitive golf round before a few spectators and taped/edited TV ain't gonna faze him.  Oh, he'll have his troubles as of course the golf course will be very very difficult.  But if a guy can shoot 69s in competition as he has, he can break 80 anywhere.  I'm not saying he WILL as a lot can go wrong in any one golf round... but he surely can. 

TH

Word for word, exactly where I stand!!!

[Glenn Spencer]

Huck, a couple things:

1) Many other pro athletes have found that their immunity to pressure in their own sport doesn't translate to the golf course;

and

2) Is there any reason to believe Romo is a better golfer than absolutely any golfer who qualifies for the US Open? There's probably going to be one or two of those guys who shoots in the mid 80s, I see no reason to believe Romo is better than any of them.

Can he do it? Sure. Pete hits on the most likely reason - even though this is billed as Open setup, we all know that a week or two prior can make a big difference. The course won't be quite as firm or fast or nasty. Close, but not quite. A more accurate test, which wouldn't fit into NBC's plans, would be to have them tee it up on the day after.

Will he do it? My money says no - and I'm willing to back it up with that cool hard dollar.

George,

Your point number 2 is easily the most logical approach that I have seen. Makes me wonder about any other person trying, but as TH says, I think Romo's case is a little different. Also, I don't think enough emphasis is being put on Romo's Azalea being his FIRST National tourney. Those are 2 really good rounds of golf that he put together.

[George Pazin]

Also, I don't think enough emphasis is being put on Romo's Azalea being his FIRST National tourney. Those are 2 really good rounds of golf that he put together.

That's certainly one way of looking at it. The flip side is that he might have gotten a little lucky in a first outing and a few more tourney results might show he's actually not quite as good as he might appear.

We really don't have any way of knowing which is true.

For my money, we know that every single guy who qualifies for the US Open is a very very good golfer (a great golfer, really, though obviously not great in the "He's one of the greats" sense of the word) , tournament tested and approved. I don't see Romo beating any guy in the field, not yet anyway.

It's also true that the guys that shoot in the 80s at the Open are off their game those days. They're not that caliber of golfer, it's just the nature of the game that any given day you're going to have excellent golfers shoot big numbers. But it's also not a coincidence that those guys tend to be the amateur qualifiers rather than the tour pros.

It's a fun discussion, at any rate. I'm actually looking forward to the little broadcast to see how all 4 guys do.

[Mike Benham]

The Azalea is only important from a pressure standpoint and I am really happy that he is perceived as being comfortable in the spot light.

The Azalea is not important as a measuring stick unless the fairways were at US Open width of 20 or so yards and it had US Open rough at 4 - 6 inches.

Does anyone think that Romo will drive more accurately then 125th place on the PGA Tour stats?

Does anyone think that Romo will hit more GIR then 125th place on the PGA Tour stats?

7 bogeys ... no more then 7 bogeys ...

[Tom Huckaby]

George, in one round of golf anything can happen.  

I just will continue to stand by my take, which is this:  Romo likely will not break 80, as a lot would have to go his way for that to occur. The course will be very tough and unlike anything he has seen before.  But he certainly does have the capability to shoot in the 70s in this silly funsy event (the "pressure" on which escapes me); just as an amateur qualifier for the US Open has the capability to shoot one round in the 60s in the high-pressure atmosphere of the US Open itself (as has occurred plenty of times).

I will take the under on 85; but I don't feel all that strongly about this to put any serious money on it.

TH

ps to Mike - in one round,  yes Romo could do all those things.  He likely won't but he certainly could.

[Dean Stokes]

I just read in a golf article about the set up at Torrey Pines this year. Appears that Mr Davis, the course setter upper for the USGA, is not as callous as the fella before him.
Fairways will be 29-34 yards wide instead of the usual 24. And the first cut will only be 2 3/4 inches rather than the usual 5 - he said.

All seems a trifle timid for the US Open and surely offers considerable more chance for these guys to break the scoring 80/100 as we have been discussing.

[Pete Lavallee]

Dean,

Fairway widths at Torrey are the same they use for the Buick; they don't widen the course after the tournament. I paced off an average fairway, the par 5 9th, on Fri. and it was 26 yards wide. There is a 6 yard wide strip of secondary rough which was shorter than 2 inches. The primary rough is very lush and at least 5 inches deep; total wedge out stuff. You will need to drive the ball accurately to score well.

[George Pazin]

I will take the under on 85; but I don't feel all that strongly about this to put any serious money on it.

So you're not willing to match my cool dollar....

Lloyd: Give it me me straight, Mary, what are my chances? 1 in a thousand?
Mary: More like 1 in a million.
Lloyd: So you're telling me there's a chance....

- Dumb and Dumber

[Tom Huckaby]

George - sorry - missed that part.

You are on, Mortimer.

Come on Romo!

BTW has the 10 capper been identified yet?

TH

[Kalen Braley]

Hey George,

Get in line, if Huck puts up a buck its going to me...I started the whole 85 under/over thing.   

I will agree in principle that its possible for Romo to play his very best golf that day and indeed break 80, its just very very unlikely in my mind that he will actually do so.... and so I rate his chances at the "snowball in hell" level.

[Tom Huckaby]

Kalen - you did?  I sincerely thought I created that, either here on in IMs.

Oh well, you can have the vigorish - what is that, 10%?

 

[Kalen Braley]

So Tom,

You want some action on that bet then?  I say Romo won't even sniff 80, much less something in the 70s...85 is about the closest he gets.   

Ok ok, so I was only half right.....

I suggested 85 as a number first, you were the first one to suggest 85 as an "over/under" combo.

Either way, if your putting a dollar down, I'm first in line taking the over against your under.  

[Tom Huckaby]

Fair enough.  So I accept, and now I am in for two Mortimers.

Come on Romo!

 

[Kalen Braley]

Yeeehah.

Now I need to put a call in to Jessica Simpson to make sure she gets an invitation and it doesn't get lost in the mail like Petes invitation did.  She is Romo's kryptonite....

Or perhaps the Happy Gilmore route would be more effective.  I'd have someone follow along saying "Don't bobble the placement" during his backswing..