George:
Thank you for quoting me correctly.
Low-handicap players get all jazzed about "decisions" involving a big carry off the tee, because THEY KNOW THEY CAN MAKE THE CARRY. It's still a risk, yes, but only if they hit a poor tee shot. [Most alternate-fairway holes are set up so that the long-carry tee shot gets the easy angle to the green, a design theory which hammers the short hitter over the head.]
Likewise, if you understand the relationship between hole location and best approach angle on a course like Ballyneal, then making the correct decision isn't so hard.
Much better types of decisions are the ones involving a risk you CAN'T carry ... i.e. Rich's description of the 14th at Dornoch, or playing down the left edge of the fifth hole at Sunningdale to get a better angle into the green, knowing you are flirting with the heather and trees on the left.
The 16th at St. Andrews is another great one. Nobody is confident to play down the fence on the left, but if you drive too far down the left, you also get a bad angle to the best hole locations. So do you dare play close to the central bunkers?
I don't think you are giving this shot enough credit. For one, nobody is penalized on a good diagonal hole. There is a shot all can make available. Second, even for decent hitters, everything changes when wind the kicks up. I have been getting to know Burnham quite well this winter. There are several holes in which the carry or angle changes dramatically because of wind. Most dismiss the 4th as a nothing hole until the wind is more in your face OR at your back. Its quite difficult to discern the line in either case.
Perhaps the best diagonal tee shot I can think of is the 2nd at N Berwick. I think what really makes the hole is not the choice of carry, but the elephant mounds out on the left. If one is aiming out there, it is best to layup because if you get caught in those humps you virtually have no chance to reach the green. However, who has the guts to hit less than driver even in a safe direction?
I do agree that most tee shots can be figured fairly quickly if the player knows the green and where the hole is cut. I think the trick, as you suggest, is to make that ideal drive placement a bit risky, not so much as to make the player scoff, but enough to tempt him at least once in a while.
Ciao